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Tytuł:
Similarity and Granger Causality in Polish and Spanish Stock Market Sectors During the COVID–19 Pandemic
Podobieństwo i przyczynowość w sensie Grangera sektorów rynku giełdowego Polski i Hiszpanii w okresie pandemii COVID–19
Autorzy:
Żebrowska‑Suchodolska, Dorota
Piekunko‑Mantiuk, Iwona
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2106291.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-09-14
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
koronawirus
sektory gospodarki
zmienność finansowa
podobieństwo
coronavirus
economic sectors
financial volatility
similarity
Opis:
Capital markets react almost immediately to crises. Such relationships can be both international and local. The research focuses on the stock markets of two countries: Spain and Poland. These countries are often compared in terms of various economic and social criteria. The research covers the period from March 3, 2019, to March 31, 2021. The aim is to identify sectors and indices similar to each other at the local level and to identify, among pairs of similar indices, those that provide a boost to another sector. The research uses the hierarchical cluster analysis method (Ward’s method) and the Granger causality test. This work presents a novel approach to sectoral comparison at the local level.
Rynki kapitałowe reagują prawie natychmiast na sytuacje kryzysowe. Zależności takie mogą mieć zarówno charakter międzynarodowy, jak i lokalny. Badania skupiają się na giełdach dwóch krajów: Hiszpanii i Polski. Kraje te są często porównywane do siebie pod względem różnych kryteriów gospodarczych i społecznych. Badania dotyczą okresu od 3 marca 2019 roku do 31 marca 2021 roku. Celem badań jest identyfikacja sektorów i indeksów podobnych do siebie na poziomie lokalnym oraz wskazanie wśród par indeksów podobnych tych, które stanowią impuls dla innego sektora. Do badań wykorzystano metodę hierarchiczną analizy skupień (metoda Warda) oraz test przyczynowości Grangera. W niniejszej pracy przedstawiono nowatorskie podejście do porównań sektorowych na poziomie lokalnym.
Źródło:
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe; 2022, 25, 3; 90-109
1508-2008
2082-6737
Pojawia się w:
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The empirical analysis of dynamic relationship between financial intermediary connections and market return volatility
Autorzy:
Karkowska, Renata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/482959.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
financial market
hedge fund
market instability
volatility
Opis:
Article aims to demonstrate the significant impact of dynamics of the relationship between financial intermediaries on the level of market volatility. Particularly important are the growing share of the links between hedge funds and other financial institutions. In order to demonstrate the dynamic test was presented Granger causality, which allows the statistical analysis of cause and effect relationships in the risk spread in the financial system. Using multiple regression analysis study was calculated the impact of the hedge fund market development (measured in assets, leverage, the price volatility in various financial markets). Due to data availability study has been limited to 10-year period of analysis (2001-2011). The results show a significant correlation between the volatility in the stock market, bonds and CDS, and the activities of hedge funds on financial markets.
Źródło:
Faculty of Management Working Paper Series; 2013, WPS 3/2013; 1-13
2300-4371
Pojawia się w:
Faculty of Management Working Paper Series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bayesian Pricing of an European Call Option Using a GARCH Model with Asymmetries
Bayesowska wycena europejskiej opcji kupna z wykorzystaniem modelu GARCH z asymetriami
Autorzy:
Osiewalski, Jacek
Pipień, Mateusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/906870.pdf
Data publikacji:
2004
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
Bayesian inference
financial econometrics
volatility models
forecasting
derivative pricing
Opis:
In this paper option pricing is treated as an application of Bayesian predictive analysis. The distribution of the discounted payoff, induced by the predictive density of future observables, is the basis for direct option pricing, as in Bauwens and Lubrano (1997). We also consider another, more eclectic approach to option pricing, where the predictive distribution of the Black-Scholes value is used (with volatility measured by the conditional standard deviation at time of maturity). We use a model framework that allows for two types of asymmetry in GARCH processes: skewed t conditional densities and different reactions of conditional scale to positive/negative stocks. Our skewed t-GARCH(l, 1) model is used to describe daily changes of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) from 4.01.1995 till 8.02.2002. The data till 28.09.2001 are used to obtain the posterior and predictive distributions, and to illustrate Bayesian option pricing for the remaining period.
W prezentowanym artykule wycena opcji jest traktowana jako jedno z zastosowań bayesowskiej analizy predyktywnej. Rozkład wartości zdyskontowanej wypłaty, indukowany przez gęstość predyktywną przyszłych stóp zwrotu, jest podstawą bezpośredniej wyceny opcji (zob. Bauwens, Lubrano, 1997). Rozważamy też bardziej eklektyczne podejście, wykorzystujące rozkład predyktywny formuły Blacka i Scholesa (ze zmiennością określoną jako warunkowe odchylenie standardowe w momencie realizacji opcji). Przyjmujemy ramy modelowe, które uwzględniają dwa rodzaje asymetrii w procesach GARCH: skośne rozkłady warunkowe (typu t-Studenta) oraz zróżnicowane reakcje wariancji warunkowej na szoki dodatnie lub ujemne. Model: skośny £-GARCH(l, 1) jest stosowany do opisu dziennej zmienności Warszawskiego Indeksu Giełdowego (WIG) od 4.01.1995 r. do 8.02.2002 r. Dane do 28.09.2001 wykorzystujemy do budowy rozkładów a posteriori i predyktywnego oraz do ilustracji bayesowskiej wyceny opcji na pozostały okres.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2004, 177
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Financial risk contagion to real sector in Iran: A VAR-BEKK-GARCH approach
Autorzy:
Sabouri, Hossein
Abounori, Esmaeil
Tehrani, Reza
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1046556.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
Risk contagion
VAR-BEKK-GARCH approach
Volatility spillover
financial markets
Opis:
Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order co-movements of asset returns, including changes in co-skewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The purpose of this study was to investigate the financial risk contagion from the financial sector to the real sector of the economy using VAR-BEKK-GARCH for the active industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 1388-1395. The estimated coefficients for considering the period of the crisis and the recession in the stock market indicate that the coefficients are positive for the effect of the outflow in the stock market. Also, in the case study, there is a probability of financial risk fluctuation between the investigated industries. In addition, the results indicate that the risk and turmoil among the active industries in the stock market and the real sector of the Iranian economy are tangible.
Źródło:
World Scientific News; 2019, 137; 81-95
2392-2192
Pojawia się w:
World Scientific News
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The impact of financial speculation on futures contracts price movements: A study of the US markets for dairy commodities
Autorzy:
Staugaitis, Algirdas Justinas
Christauskas, Česlovas
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22396254.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
commodity futures contracts
dairy commodity futures
financial speculation
return volatility
GARCH
Opis:
Research background: The study analyzes whether financial speculation destabilizes commodity prices in light of recent price volatility and spikes in agricultural commodities. The study delves deeper into the US dairy futures markets, which are less studied by other authors in their research and relatively new in comparison to other agricultural commodity markets. These dairy commodity futures contracts provide dairy businesses and farmers the chance to hedge against price risks, which are particularly crucial in uncertain economic times such as the post-2020 COVID-19 pandemic timeframe. The analysis makes use of the weekly returns on futures contracts for nonfat milk powder, butter, milk class III, and cheese that are obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Purpose of the article: Conduct an empirical study to evaluate the effect of financial speculation on dairy product prices on US commodity markets, including the post-2020 timeframe. Methods: Time series analysis is used in the investigation: the generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method, the Granger causality test, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Findings & value added: Our analysis's findings show that, even though most commodities experienced an increase in return volatility during the post-2020 period, there is no evidence for financial speculation being the cause of increased returns from dairy futures contracts. The research also suggests that financial speculation, in some cases, even lowers the volatility of dairy futures prices. Therefore, non-commercial market participants may help to distribute price risks, making these markets more liquid.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2023, 18, 3; 661-686
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
SELECTED TECHNIQUES OF DETECTING STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN FINANCIAL VOLATILITY
Autorzy:
Stawiarski, Bartosz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/599704.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania z siedzibą w Rzeszowie
Tematy:
volatility
structural breaks
financial time series
logarithmic returns
Threshold-GARCH model
Opis:
We investigate several promising algorithms, proposed in literature, devised to detect sudden changes (structural breaks) in the volatility of financial time series. Comparative study of three techniques: ICSS, NPCPM and Cheng’s algorithm is carried out via numerical simulation in the case of simulated T-GARCH models and two real series, namely German and US stock indices. Simulations show that the NPCPM algorithm is superior to ICSS because is not over-sensitive either to heavy tails of market returns or to their serial dependence. Some signals generated by ICSS are falsely classified as structural breaks in volatility, while Cheng’s technique works well only when a single break occurs.
Źródło:
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse; 2015, 11, 1; 32-43
1734-039X
Pojawia się w:
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Switching Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets and Financial Liberalization: Evidence from the new EU Member Countries
Autorzy:
Kouretas, Georgios
Syllignakis, Manolis
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483237.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
emerging European stock markets
stock return volatility
Markov switching
financial crises
Opis:
In this paper, we use weekly stock market data to examine whether the volatility of stock returns of ten emerging capital markets of the new EU member countries has changed since the opening of their capital markets. In particular we are interested in understanding whether there are high and low periods of stock returns volatility and what the degree of correlation across these markets is. We estimate a Markov-Switching ARCH (SWARCH) model proposed by Hamilton and Susmel (1994) and we allow for the possibility that two or three volatility regimes may exist for stock returns volatility. The main finding of the present study is that the high volatility of stock returns of all new EU emerging stock markets is associated mainly with the 1997-1998 Asian and Russian financial crises as well as over the 2007-2009 financial turmoil, while there is a transition to the low volatility regime as they approach the accession to the EU in 2004. It is also shown that the capital flows liberalization process has resulted in an increase in volatility of stock returns in most cases.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2012, 4, 2; 65-93
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies
Autorzy:
Kliber, Agata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483351.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
CDS
bond spread
Markov-switching models
GARCH models
volatility
financial crisis
Opis:
In the article the author analyses the impact of the Financial Crisis, especially the Greek fiscal one, on the sCDS prices in Europe. The aim of the article is to assess the ability of the sCDS premia to price the risk of countries before and during the Greek crisis. The author analyses sCDS premia of maturity 10 years together with the so called bond-spreads, i.e. the spreads between the countries’ bond indexes and the risk free rate of the region (in our case it was the yield of German bonds of corresponding maturity - 10 years). The idea was to check whether there occurred any discrepancies in the risk valuation via the two measures, as a consequence of the Greek crisis. The data is taken daily and covers the period of 2008-2012. Based upon the results obtained in the research we conclude that the Greek crisis indeed influenced the relationships between the two measures of risk, however the degree of the influence was different in different countries. The relationships between the two measures of risk were totally broken only in the case of Greece, while in the other countries the relationships either were not distorted or had been broken already at the beginning of the financial crisis (2008/2009). The Greek problems were indeed reflected in volatilities of all analysed instruments; however triggering the credit event affected only Greek bonds dynamics.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2013, 5, 2; 125-161
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Impact Of The Ban On Uncovered SCDS Trade On the Interdependencies Between The CDS Market And Other Sectors Of Financial Markets. The Case Of Safe And Developed Versus Risky And Developing European Markets
Autorzy:
Kliber, Agata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/632986.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016-03-01
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
sovereign CDS (sCDS)
bonds
exchange rate
stock exchange
volatility
financial crisis.
Opis:
The aim of the article is to verify the impact of the ban on uncovered sCDS trade in Europe on the interdependencies between the sCDS market and other sectors of financial markets. We analyse two European markets: the safe and developed Swedish market, and the risky and developing Hungarian one. The study covers the period from October 2008 to October 2013. We analyse changes in the interdependencies between the sCDS market and the bond market, as well as between the sCDS market and the stock exchange. We found out that in the case of the safe Swedish market, the strength of relationships of each sector of financial markets with the sCDS one was much weaker than in the case of Hungary, which may suggest that the Swedish market is less prone to crisis transmission arising from herd behaviour or speculative attacks. In the end we show that in the two economies, the influence of the sCDS market on the other sectors of financial market indeed diminished following introduction of the ban on uncovered sCDS trade.
Źródło:
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe; 2016, 19, 1; 77-99
1508-2008
2082-6737
Pojawia się w:
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Zastosowanie statystyki wielowymiarowej do badania kryzysu subprime
Cluster analysis and subprime crisis
Autorzy:
Buszkowska, Eliza
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/955165.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet w Białymstoku. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu w Białymstoku
Tematy:
analiza skupień
kryzys finansowy
korelacje
zmienność
cluster analysis
financial crisis
correlations
volatility
Opis:
W artykule zastosowano metody analizy skupień z zakresu statystyki wielowymiarowej do badania okresu kryzysu finansowego. Zgodnie z tymi algorytmami zgrupowano indeksy giełdowe oraz kursy walutowe z okresów charakteryzujących się ich podwyższoną korelacją i szczególną zmiennością. Przeprowadzono dyskusję nad możliwością zastosowania tej metody do generowania ram czasowych różnych okresów giełdowych. Analiza skupień umożliwiła poczynienie nowych obserwacji na temat kryzysu subprime.
The author uses data clustering methods derived from multivariate statistics to investigate the latest financial crisis. In compliance with these algorithms, the paper groups stock market indexes and stock exchange rates from the periods of their higher correlation and higher volatility. The author discusses the possibility to apply this method to generate time frames on the stock market. Cluster analysis has made it possible to make some new observations concerning the subprime crisis.
Źródło:
Optimum. Economic Studies; 2015, 4(76); 86-102
1506-7637
Pojawia się w:
Optimum. Economic Studies
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Polish contribution to financial econometrics. A review of methods and applications
Polski wkład w ekonometrię finansową. Przegląd metod i zastosowań
Autorzy:
Osińska, Magdalena
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425108.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
financial econometrics
volatility models
risk measures
extreme value theory
microstructure
behavioral information
Opis:
Since 1982 the term “financial econometrics” has been present in the enormous literature that covers both methodologies and empirical analyses of the processes observed on the financial markets. The purpose of the presented paper is to indicate the milestones in financial econometrics and their usefulness and to show the contribution of the research from Poland into its development. ‘Pure’ financial econometrics methods are of special interest. The paper is directed at reviewing the recent methodologies and their applications. We focused on the contribution of Polish researchers into financial econometrics over the years, considering both the methodology and the applications. Some of the indicated publications are cited quite often, including international quotations, others are not very popular due to the language of the publication or the local reach of the journal, although many of them can be considered in line with the achievements that are presented in international empirical publications.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2016, 4 (54); 9-35
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The effect of financial, macroeconomic and sentimental factors on stock market volatility
Autorzy:
Czapkiewicz, Anna
Choczyńska, Agnieszka
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1047382.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-05-31
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
regime shift
equity volatility
macroeconomic factors
sentimental factors
financial markets
TVPMS model
Opis:
The aim of this paper is to find economic factors that could be helpful in explaining the market's shifts between periods of prosperity and crisis. The study took into account the main stock indices from developed markets of the USA, Germany and Great Britain, and from two emerging markets, i.e. Poland and Turkey. The analysis confirms the existence of two different states of volatility in these markets, namely the state with a positive returns' mean and low volatility, and the state with a negative or insignificant mean and high volatility. The Markov-switching model with a dynamic probability matrix was applied in the study. The subject of the analysis was the impact of domestic and global factors, such as VIX and TED spread, oil prices, sentiment indices (ZEW), and macroeconomic indices (unemployment, longterm interest rate, CPI), on the probability of switching between the states. The authors concluded that in all the examined countries, changes in long-term interest rates have an influence on market returns. However, the direction of this impact is different for developed and emerging markets. As regards developed markets, high prices of oil, 10-year bonds, and the ZEW index can suggest a high probability of the countries remaining in the first state, whereas an increase in the VIX index and the TED spread significantly reduces the probability of staying in this state. The other studied factors proved to be rather local in nature.
Źródło:
Przegląd Statystyczny; 2020, 67, 4; 274-293
0033-2372
Pojawia się w:
Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Impact of Asset Structure on a Company’s Financial Results Stability
Autorzy:
Zimny, Artur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/35526745.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
asset structure
asset tangibility
financial results stability
volatility of profitability
operating leverage
Opis:
The purpose of the article is to examine the impact of asset structure on the stability of financial results of companies. The article verifies two hypotheses: 1. high share of non-current assets in total assets results in high volatility of profitability over time. 2. high share of PPE (Property, Plant & Equipment) in total assets results in high volatility of profitability over time. The methodology of the study includes a literature review and empirical research based on correlation analysis. The research covered the aggregated data of Polish non-financial enterprises employing 10 persons or more keeping accounting ledgers, data for years 2009–2020 (first dataset) and annual financial data of 115 companies from 13 WSE industry sub-sectors for years 2009–2021 (second dataset). The results of the research. The analysis of the asset structure and the volatility of profitability in the research sample indicated industries with large and small values of these parameters. Then, the hypotheses were tested; the results for the second dataset showed that there is a positive and weak, but statistically significant (p value ≤ 0.005) correlation between non-current asset structure ratio and both, ROS and ROS adjusted ratios, and there is a weak, but negative correlation between PPE structure ratio and ROS and ROS adjusted ratios (with p value of 0.021 and 0.076, respectively). On this basis, hypothesis 1 was considered as verified positively, and hypothesis 2 was rejected. The discussion contains suppositions concerning the probable reasons of the discrepancy between the result for the hypotheses 1 and 2.
Źródło:
Finanse i Prawo Finansowe; 2022, 4, 36; 107-128
2391-6478
2353-5601
Pojawia się w:
Finanse i Prawo Finansowe
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Hybrid MSV-MGARCH Models - General Remarks and the GMSF-SBEKK Specification
Autorzy:
Osiewalski, Jacek
Osiewalski, Krzysztof
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076468.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Bayesian econometrics
multivariate volatility models
MGARCH processes
MSV processes
financial markets
commodity markets
Opis:
The first so-called hybrid MSV-MGARCH models were characterized by the conditional covariance matrix that was a product of a univariate latent process and a matrix with a simple MGARCH structure (Engle’s DCC or scalar BEKK). The aim was to parsimoniously describe volatility of a large group of assets. The proposed hybrid models, similarly as pure MSV specifications (and other models based on latent processes), required the Bayesian approach equipped with efficient MCMC simulation tools. The numerical effort has payed – the hybrid models seem particularly useful due to their good fit and ability to jointly cope with large portfolios. In particular, the simplest hybrid, now called the MSF-SBEKK model, has been successfully used in many applications. However, one latent process may be insufficient in the case of a highly heterogeneous portfolio. Thus, in this study we discuss a general hybrid MSV-MGARCH model structure, showing its basic characteristics that explain greater flexibility of such hybrid structure with respect to the corresponding MGARCH class. From the empirical perspective, we advocate the GMSF-SBEKK specification, which uses as many latent processes as there are relatively homogeneous groups of assets. We present full Bayesian inference for such models, with the use of an efficient MCMC simulation strategy. The approach is used to jointly model volatility on very different markets. Joint modelling is formally compared to individual modelling of volatility on each market.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2016, 4; 241-271
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Volatility and co-movements of the equity markets in Central Europe – evidence from Poland and Hungary
Zmienność i współzależność rynków akcji w Europie Środkowo Wschodniej na przykładzie rynków Polski i Węgier
Autorzy:
Chmielewska, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/435030.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018-06-01
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Opolski
Tematy:
correlation
volatility
financial markets
GARCH
financial econometrics
systemic risk
CEE
korelacja
zmienność
rynki finansowe
ekonometria finansowe
ryzyko systemowe
Opis:
This article aims at verifying if there has been a structural change in the co-movement pattern of selected Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the ten-year period following the financial crisis. The empirical results confirmed that such a change was observed both in the correlation and volatility levels for specific market segments, as well as in the market dynamics. These findings provide a new insight into understanding the shock resilience, which consequently can supplement a wider assessment of the systemic risk in the financial markets. The key results point towards a decreased uncertainty in estimated correlation levels during the post-crisis period. Such findings are consistent with the hypothesis that intermarket linkages are currently better reflected in market prices when compared to the pre-crisis period. While this is clearly a positive signal for future system stability, it also evidences that the widely used GARCH and DCC specifications turn to be relatively narrow and therefore greater caution is highly recommended when interpreting estimation results.
Przedstawione badanie koncentruje się na analizie zmienności i współzależności polskiego i węgierskiego rynku akcji. Wielowymiarowa analiza GARCH pozwala potwierdzić strukturalny charakter zmian w funkcjonowaniu rynków finansowych obserwowanych po kryzysie na rynkach kredytowych. Szczegółowe badanie wąskiej grupy rynków uwzględnia analizę opartą o symulacje reakcje na impuls. Analiza ta uwidoczniła zmiany w dynamice rynków i odporności na szoki zewnętrzne. Zmniejszona niepewność obserwowana w okresie pokryzysowym jest spójna z hipotezą uczenia się rynków finansowych. Sugeruje ona, że powiazania rynkowe są obecnie w lepszym stopniu uwzględniane w wycenach instrumentów finansowych. Taki wniosek, choć wymaga dalszego potwierdzenia, wydaje się korzystny z punktu widzenia analizy ryzyka systemowego. Jednocześnie jednak przeprowadzone badanie unaocznia konieczność modyfikacji i dostosowania metodyki analizy rynków, wskazując, że relatywnie dokładne oszacowania zmienności i korelacji mogą tylko pozornie potwierdzać właściwość specyfikacji stosowanych modeli.
Źródło:
Economic and Environmental Studies; 2018, 18, 2; 499-513
1642-2597
2081-8319
Pojawia się w:
Economic and Environmental Studies
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 21

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