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Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
Tytuł:
Identification and Estimation of Initial Conditions in Non-Minimal State-Space Models
Autorzy:
Bystrov, Victor
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2075239.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
identification
latent variables
state-space model
redundancy
Opis:
In this paper the identification problem is considered for initial conditions in a non-minimal state-space model that includes interpretable state variables generated by non-stationary stochastic processes. In order to solve the identification problem, structural restrictions are imposed on initial conditions in a state-space model with redundant state variables. The corresponding restricted maximum likelihood estimator of initial conditions is derived. The restricted estimator of initial conditions can be used in order to compute uniquely identified realizations of interpretable latent variables. The identification problem is illustrated analytically using a simple structural economic model
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2020, 4; 413-429
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rates of interest
Autorzy:
Bystrov, Victor
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1046640.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
natural rate of interest
state-space model
observational equivalence
Opis:
The results of the study presented in this paper demonstrate that a structural model of the natural interest rate, which is consistent with the standard assumptions of the natural rate theory, admits an interpretable, observationally equivalent representation in which a redefined, 'unnatural' equilibrium rate is different from the natural rate in the original model. The alternative representation was obtained by an invertible transformation implemented in the minimal state-space form of the natural-rate model. The identification theory for state-space models is used in the paper to prove the observational equivalence of these two representations. In the alternative representation, the equilibrium interest rate fails to meet the assumption of the natural rate theory, because it depends on past demand shocks. The alternative model, being observationally equivalent, has different implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The problem of observational equivalence arises in relation to natural-rate models because of the inherent unobservability of the natural interest rate; a potential solution to this problem could be the augmentation of the information set which is used to identify and estimate the natural rate.
Źródło:
Przegląd Statystyczny; 2019, 66, 3; 183-199
0033-2372
Pojawia się w:
Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy
Autorzy:
Bystrov, Victor
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076225.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
natural rate of interest
potential output
euro area
state-space model
Kalman filter
Opis:
In this paper a semi-structural econometric model is implemented in order to estimate the natural rates of interest in two large economies of the Euro Area: Germany an Italy. The estimates suggest that after the financial crisis of 2007–2008 a decrease of the growth rate of potential output and the corresponding natural rate of interest was greater in Italy than in Germany which could have had important implications for the effectiveness of a common monetary policy. Unlike in other studies, it is found that the monetary policy stance was less expansionary in Italy as compared to Germany for the whole after-crisis period.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2018, 4; 333-353
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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