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    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
    Tytuł:
    Applicability of the Multi- Group Confirmatory Factor Analysis to Construction of Business Sentiment Indicators
    Zastosowanie konfirmacyjnej analizy czynnikowej dla wielu grup do tworzenia wskaźników koniunktury
    Autorzy:
    Białowolski, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/906852.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2012
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
    Tematy:
    Confirmatory Factor Analysis
    Sentiment Indicators
    Opis:
    The paper presents arguments that advocate for application of the multi-group confirmatory factor analysis as a tool for constructing sentiment indicators in business surveys. Reliable measurement and comparisons of the sentiment mean between periods require measurement invariance on its three basic levels-configural, metric and scalar invariance. It is hypothesized that only sets of questions that are internally coherent can serve as a group of proxies for business sentiment indicator. An attempt to construct two different sentiment indicators for manufacturing industry is performed. The results show that only for the set of coherent proxies it is possible to estimate model with measurement invariance.
    Źródło:
    Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2012, 269
    0208-6018
    2353-7663
    Pojawia się w:
    Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Expectations’ Formation in Business Survey Data
    Autorzy:
    Białowolski, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500164.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013-09-01
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    business tendency surveys
    confirmatory factor analysis
    structural equation modeling
    Opis:
    In this paper we conduct a three step analysis of business tendency survey data in order to establish (1) common factors driving responses to groups of questions in the business tendency survey conducted among firms in the manufacturing industry in Poland, (2) factors responsible for respondents’ answers regarding assessments (present) and expectations (future), and (3) interrelations between current assessments and expectations. We start by performing a check of the factor structure with multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) models in order to establish common factors responsible for sets of answers in the area of assessments and expectations, respectively. Then, we proceed with structural equation modeling (SEM) framework in order to define period specific relations between the factors. With the final structural model we show that most answers in the area of current assessments and expectations of companies are in line with the stylised facts. We also demonstrate that the companies’ response pattern did not change during the financial crisis.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2013, 93: Expectations and Forecasting; 5-28
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Consumer confidence, durable goods purchase and unemployment forecast
    Autorzy:
    Białowolski, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424992.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
    Tematy:
    consumer confidence
    confirmatory factor analysis
    durable goods purchase
    measurement invariance
    unemployment expectations
    Opis:
    Multi-Group Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MGCFA) demonstrated the deficiency of the four original European Commission (EC) items for consumer confidence. Fit of the MGCFA model was unacceptable and without scalar invariance, index comparison between study periods was not permissible. This provided clear motivation for a plausible alternative index specification to comply with requirements for single-dimensionality and meaning invariance throughout the study period. The MGCFA model using a new set of items demonstrated partial metric and partial scalar invariance. Using the structural equation framework, consumer confidence was revealed as strongly interrelated with unemployment forecast and durable goods purchase.
    Źródło:
    Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 3(45); 42-55
    1507-3866
    Pojawia się w:
    Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Survey-based household inflation expectations. Are they valid? A multi-group confirmatory factor analysis approach
    Autorzy:
    Białowolski, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500699.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    confirmatory factor analysis
    consumer confidence indicator
    consumer tendency surveys
    inflation expectations
    measurement invariance
    Opis:
    We present evidence that micro-level household inflation expectations are influenced by consumer confidence. To account for this impact, using multi-group confirmatory factor analysis, we measure the intertemporal consistency of a model comprising both consumer confidence and inflation expectations. We determine that the model exhibits the property of partial measurement invariance. Thus, we are able to account reliably for the influence of consumer confidence on inflation expectations and, simultaneously, to obtain corrected inflation expectations at the household level. It appears that, after correcting for the level of confidence, average inflation expectations at each point in time become significantly more similar to the average inflation expectations of professional forecasters and more correlated with average consumer confidence. Our analysis is based on household survey data from Poland’s State of the Households’ Survey (from 2000Q1 to 2012Q1), which is conducted in line with the European Commission’s methodology.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 96: Analyzing and forecasting economic fluctuations; 49-67
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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