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Tytuł:
Radon variability due to floor level in two typical residential buildings in Serbia
Autorzy:
Udovicic, Vladimir
Veselinovic, Nikola
Maletic, Dimitrije
Banjanac, Radomir
Dragic, Aleksandar
Jokovic, Dejan
Savic, Mihailo
Knezevic, David
Eremic Savkovic, Maja
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/146821.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Instytut Chemii i Techniki Jądrowej
Tematy:
radon variability
time series
Opis:
It is well known that one of the factors that influence the indoor radon variability is the floor level of the buildings. Considering the fact that the main source of indoor radon is radon in soil gas, it is expected that the radon concentration decreases at higher floors. Thus at higher floors the dominant source of radon is originating from building materials, and in some cases there may be deviations from the generally established regularity. In such sense, we chose one freestanding single-family house with loft and other 16-floor high-rise residential building for this study. The indoor radon measurements were performed by two methods: passive and active. We used passive devices based on track-etched detectors: Radtrak2 Radonova. For the short-term indoor radon measurements, we used two active devices: SN1029 and SN1030 (manufactured by Sun Nuclear Corporation). The first device was fixed in the living room at the ground level and the second was moved through the floors of the residential building. Every measuring cycle at the specified floor lasted seven days with the sampling time of 2 h. The results show two different indoor radon behaviours regarding radon variability due to floor level. In the single-family house with loft we registered intense difference between radon concentration in the ground level and loft, while in the high-rise residential building the radon level was almost the same at all floors, and hence we may conclude that radon originated mainly from building materials.
Źródło:
Nukleonika; 2020, 65, 2; 121-125
0029-5922
1508-5791
Pojawia się w:
Nukleonika
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Jackknife Forecasts of Time Series
Wykorzystanie metody jackknife do prognozowania szeregów czasowych
Autorzy:
Wywiał, Janusz
Żądło, Tomasz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/906889.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
jackknife
time series
seasonal fluctuations
Opis:
In the paper we present the examples of forecasts of time series with seasonal fluctuations. Based on the jackknife method we estimate variances of seasonal factors and the MSE of prediction. Jackknife method has been introduced by M. Quenouille (1949) and then it has been developed among others by J. Tukey (1958) and J. Shao, D. Tu (1995).
W pracy zaproponowano wykorzystanie metody jackknife do prognozowania szeregów czasowych. Oprócz problemu prognozowania tą metodą, podjęto także problem oceny średniego błędu tak wyznaczanych prognoz. W oparciu o rzeczywiste dane zaprezentowane zostały przykłady prognozowania szeregów czasowych z wahaniami sezonowymi przy wykorzystaniu wersji jackknife metody wskaźników sezonowości. Oprócz wyznaczenia wartości prognozowanej w rozważanym przypadku będzie możliwa ocena wariancji błędu predykcji. Metodę jackknife wprowadził M. Quenouille (1949), a była rozwijana m. in. przez J. Tukey’a (1958) oraz J. Shao i D. Tu (1995).
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2007, 206
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On Time Series Prediction Based on Control Chart
O prognozowaniu szeregów czasowych z wykorzystaniem kart kontrolnych
Autorzy:
Polko, Dominika
Kończak, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/904563.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
time series
prediction
control chart
Opis:
Control charts are the most commonly used quality control tools. These tools are dedicated to monitoring processes characteristic over time. Control charts may be successfully applied in other statistical areas. The non-classical use of control charts for time series prediction has been presented by Z. Pawłowski in the paper Predykcja za pomocą kart kontrolnych (Control Chart Based Prediction, 1969). The forecasts obtained by this method are quantitative or qualitative. The modification of this method is presented in the paper. It leads to quantitative predictions in all cases. The proposal was compared to some well-known classical prediction methods in the Monte Carlo study.
Metody statystyczne opracowane na potrzeby kontroli jakości produktów z powodzeniem mogą być stosowane w analizie innych zagadnień. Do najczęściej wykorzystywanych narzędzi kontroli jakości należy zaliczyć karty kontrolne. Nieklasyczne zastosowanie kart kontrolnych związane z wykorzystaniem ich do prognozowania przedstawił Z. Pawłowski w artykule Predykcja za pomocą kart kontrolnych (1969). Prognozy otrzymywane tą metodą mają charakter ilościowy lub jakościowy. W artykule przedstawiono propozycję modyfikacji tej metody w celu uzyskania wszystkich prognoz o charakterze ilościowym. Proponowaną metodę porównano symulacyjnie z wybranymi metodami predykcji.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2013, 286
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Deterministic chaos and forecasting in Amazon?s share prices
Autorzy:
Hanias, Michael
Tsakonas, Stefanos
Magafas, Lykourgos
Thalassinos, Eleftherios I.
Zachilas, Loukas
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22444422.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
time series
chaos theory
econophysics
forecasting
Opis:
Research background: The application of non-linear analysis and chaos theory modelling on financial time series in the discipline of Econophysics. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the article is to identify the deterministic chaotic behavior of stock prices with reference to Amazon using daily data from Nasdaq-100. Methods: The paper uses nonlinear methods, in particular chaos theory modelling, in a case study exploring and forecasting the daily Amazon stock price. Findings & Value added: The results suggest that the Amazon stock price time series is a deterministic chaotic series with a lot of noise. We calculated the invariant parameters such as the maxi-mum Lyapunov exponent as well as the correlation dimension, managed a two-days-ahead forecast through phase space reconstruction and a grouped data handling method.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2020, 15, 2; 253-273
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Dynamics of Cryptocurrency Price Volatility in the Face of the Crisis on the Example of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Autorzy:
Przyłuska-Schmitt, Judyta
Jegorow, Dorota
Bučková, Jaroslava
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/16729161.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
Tematy:
cryptocurrency pricing
financial crisis
time series
Opis:
Theoretical background: Over the years, investing in cryptocurrencies has become very popular, and until recently, investors have predicted Bitcoin as a “safe haven”. Belief in a decentralized virtual currency even prompted the Salvadoran government to recognize Bitcoin as a legal tender in September 2021. However, cryptocurrency has depreciated significantly since then. The high amplitude of the fluctuations shows that on November 10, 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of USD 68,979, and on June 18, 2022, it fell to its low of USD 17,601. Today, investors are wondering if investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies still make sense. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to compare the price fluctuations of the most popular cryptocurrencies, i.e. Bitcoin and Ethereum in the currently observed economic crisis in the world and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Research methods: Observations of the cryptocurrency market and theoretical issues of its functioning were combined with the analysis of empirical data of Bitcoin and Ethereum quotations from January 2022 to June 2022. The basic research instruments were based on the analysis of dependencies and descriptive statistics. The conducted analysis of the time series was aimed at detecting the nature of the studied phenomenon represented by the sequence of observations of daily quotations and forecasting future values of the time series. In this context, the course of Bitcoin and Ethereum quotations was examined in two categories: Close and Market Cap in search of a potential development pattern. Main findings: The conducted research shows that strong and unpredictable fluctuations in the prices of the studied cryptocurrencies, especially in the period of market shocks, imply unknown uncertainty, much more important than investment decisions made under the conditions of measurable risk. Cryptocurrencies cannot function as an alternative to gold, enabling value to be stored, as confirmed by market quotations over the past months.
Źródło:
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia; 2023, 57, 2; 101-113
0459-9586
2449-8513
Pojawia się w:
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Optimal selection of numerical models for flood embankment pore pressure and temperature data
Autorzy:
Chuchro, M.
Dwornik, M.
Szostek, K.
Leśniak, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/305609.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
flood embankmnet
numerical modelling
time series
Opis:
The aim of the ISMOP project is to study processes in earthen flood embankments: water filtration, pore pressure changes, and temperature changes due to varying water levels in the riverbed. Developing a system for continuous monitoring of flood embankment stability is the main goal of this project. A full-size earthen flood embankment with built-in sensors was built in Czernichow and used to conduct experiments involving the simulation of different flood waves, with parameters mostly measured at time intervals of 15 minutes. Numerical modelling—in addition to providing information about phenomena occurring in the embankment due to external factors and changes in water level—could be used to assess the state of the embankment. Modelling was performed using Itasca Flac 2D 7.0 with an assumed grid cell size of 10x10 cm. The water level in the embankment simulated the water flow in the Wisła River and the temperature of the air and water. Data about the state of the flood embankment was exported every hour. Using numerical models and real experiment data, a model-driven module was used to perform comparisons. Analyses of each half-section of the flood embankment were carried out separately using similarity measures and an aggregate window. For the tests, the North-West (NW) half cross-section of the embankment was chosen, which contains pore pressure and temperature sensors UT6 to UT10. The water level in the embankment was raised to a height of 3m; the best numerical model was considered the one that best matched the actual data recorded by the sensors during the experiment. The experiment period was from 9pm on 29/08/2016 to 9am on 03/09/2016. Seventeen numerical models of the water level rising to 2, 3, and 4 meters were compared against real experimental data from the NW half cross-section. The first step was to verify the similarity between the incoming data from the sensors. If the correlation value exceeded 0.8, the data from the sensors was averaged. The experimental data was then compared against the numerical models using least absolute deviations L1-Norm. The L1-Norm varied from 26 to 32, depending on window length and the numerical model used.
Źródło:
Computer Science; 2017, 18 (4); 399-412
1508-2806
2300-7036
Pojawia się w:
Computer Science
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of simultaneous time series of indoor, outdoor and soil air radon concentrations, meteorological and seismic data
Autorzy:
Janik, M.
Bossew, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/148289.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Chemii i Techniki Jądrowej
Tematy:
radon
time series
meteorological conditions
seismic
Opis:
It is well known that the temporal dynamic of indoor and outdoor radon concentrations show complex patterns, which are partly not easy to interpret. Clearly, for physical reasons, they must be related to possibly variable conditions of radon generation, migration and atmospheric dispersion and accumulation. The aim of this study was to analyse long-time series of simultaneously measured indoor and outdoor radon concentrations, together with environmental quantities, which may act as control variables of Rn. The study was performed in Chiba, Japan, using two ionization chambers for parallel indoor and outdoor radon concentrations measurements over 4 years. Meteorological and seismic data were obtained from the Japan Metrological Agency (JMA).
Źródło:
Nukleonika; 2016, 61, 3; 295-302
0029-5922
1508-5791
Pojawia się w:
Nukleonika
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Volatility Persistence and Predictability of Squared Returns in GARCH(1,1) Models
Autorzy:
Triacca, Umberto
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483247.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
GARCH Models
returns
time series
volatility persistence
Opis:
Volatility persistence is a stylized statistical property of financial time-series data such as exchange rates and stock returns. The purpose of this letter is to investigate the relationship between volatility persistence and predictability of squared returns.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2009, 1, 3; 285-291
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Volatile ARMA Modelling of GARCH Squares
Autorzy:
Lawrance, Anthony J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483293.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
ARCH
ARMA
GARCH
prediction
time series
volatility
Opis:
This paper points out that the ARMA models followed by GARCH squares are volatile and gives explicit and general forms of their dependent and volatile innovations. The volatility function of the ARMA innovations is shown to be the square of the corresponding GARCH volatility function. The prediction of GARCH squares is facilitated by the ARMA structure and predictive intervals are considered. Further, the developments suggest families of volatile ARMA processes.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2010, 2, 3; 195-203
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The design of forecasting system used for prediction of electro-motion spare parts demands as an improving tool for an enterprise management
Autorzy:
Kačmáry, Peter
Malindžák, Dušan
Spišák, Ján
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/409825.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
STE GROUP
Tematy:
forecast
spare parts
time series
order
model
Opis:
This article describes the design of a simple forecasting system and its practical application to predict the sporadic needs for a spare part. The article shows new approach already implemented in the special servicing and production company in Slovakia and its results during a short period of performance after its implementation. Such a proposed model can be a part of the purchase planning of spare parts within the company's logistics system. In some companies, the material flow of spare parts is dominant element in terms of logistics costs. Their management is therefore important for cost optimization, customer satisfaction and market sustainability in a competitive environment. The article, in its introductory part, provides an overview of similar practical solutions within the research of this topic, but many models are designed to be applied in a global market environment and predict the amount of spare parts needed in different industries. However, these models are difficult to use for the needs of a small enterprise, because the main problem lies in the time of a spare part demand rather than its quantity. If there is a need for a specific spare part, which costs several hundred or thousands of euros, but the consumption is only a few pieces per year or more than a year, the time prediction of required spare parts is therefore crucial.
Źródło:
Management Systems in Production Engineering; 2019, 4 (27); 242-249
2299-0461
Pojawia się w:
Management Systems in Production Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Comparative analysis of methods for hourly electricity demand forecasting in the absence of data - a case study
Analiza porównawcza metod prognozowania godzinnego zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną przy brakach w danych - studium przypadku
Autorzy:
Zawadzki, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2194900.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Akademia Bialska Nauk Stosowanych im. Jana Pawła II w Białej Podlaskiej
Tematy:
forecasting
missing data
time series
high frequency
Opis:
Scope and purpose of work: This paper examines the impact of the number of gaps in data, the analytical form, and the model type selection criterion on the accuracy of interpolation and extrapolation forecasts for hourly data. Materials and methods: Forecasts were developed on the basis of predictors that are based on: classical time series forecasting models and regression time series forecasting models, hybrid time series forecasting models and hybrid regression forecasting models for uncleared series, and exponential smoothing models for cleared series of two or three types of seasonal fluctuations, with minimum estimates of errors in interpolation or extrapolation forecasts. Results: Adaptive and hybrid regression models have proved to have the most favorable predictive properties. Most hybrid time series models for systematic and non-systematic gaps and for both analytical forms are single models that generally describe fluctuations within a 24-hour cycle. Conclusions: The lowest estimators of prediction errors involving interpolation were obtained for exponential smoothing models, followed by hybrid regression models. A reverse sequence was obtained for extrapolative forecasting.
Źródło:
Economic and Regional Studies; 2023, 16, 1; 34-50
2083-3725
2451-182X
Pojawia się w:
Economic and Regional Studies
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On the Complexity of Creole Languages: The Fractal Approach
Autorzy:
Pietraszewska, Natalia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/504770.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Komisja Nauk Filologicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Oddział we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
fractal dimension
language complexity
creole languages
time series
Opis:
The current paper aims to compare the complexity of texts translated into English-based creole languages and English. The main motivation for the choice of topic was the growing body of evidence that languages and language phenomena, such as texts, may be regarded as complex adaptable systems of signs. These systems may display some fractal properties, such as self-similarity at different scales. In consequence, texts may be analysed in the same manner as other fractal objects. It is possible, for instance, to estimate their fractal dimensions which, to some extent, reflect the degree of their structural complexity. Such an assumption enables one to calculate and compare fractal dimensions of parallel translations of texts to various languages in order to compare their complexity levels. Methods which enable comparisons of complexity of texts in different languages are particularly important with regard to creole languages, since the complexity of contact languages is still the subject of debate. In the following study, ten parallel translations of passages from the New Testament were mapped onto time series plots based on the length and the frequency rank of words. The values of Hurst exponent as well as fractal dimension were estimated and it was found that the studied time series did not differ significantly between English and English-based creoles with respect to their fractal dimensions. The results lend support to the idea that creole languages are simply new languages which are merely different from their superstrate language rather than being less complex, at least with regard to their lexical patterns.
Źródło:
Academic Journal of Modern Philology; 2015, 4; 73-80
2299-7164
2353-3218
Pojawia się w:
Academic Journal of Modern Philology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Trend Analyses of River Dragacina Runoff for Identification of the Water Availability and Accounting for Water Needs
Autorzy:
Kusari, Laura
Osmanaj, Lavdim
Bungu, Samir
Thaqi, Premton
Hajdari, Venera
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2173230.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
Tematy:
time series
flow simulation
accumulation
statistical parameter
probability
Opis:
This study aimed to analyze the available amount of water in the Dragaçina River to meet the different water needs in the Municipality of Suhareka. The water problems in this city are more pronounced, especially in the vegetation period of July–September, where the area is significantly affected by drought. The Dragacina River carries about 10 hm3 of water per year, and affected neither by urbanism nor massive deforestation of the basin. However, there are no multi-year measurements of inflows for this river, whether they are average, maximum or minimum ones. Therefore, the study is based on several multi-annual monthly rainfall measurements and some characteristics of the Dragaçina River Basin. Knowing the average annual flow coefficient η = Peff / Pbruto it is possible to convert these precipitations to Peff [mm] flow and then to monthly flow. The inputs for other years from 1983/84 onwards are obtained by simulating time series. Then, for such inflows, the probability distribution functions of small waters are assigned and the usable volume balance is carried out. Assuming an average annual withdrawal from the reservoir QAmin mes. = 0.63 × Qmes. which should be constant throughout the years, then the length of the critical period will be 0.13 years or approximately 48 days, for PH = 95%. Starting from the initial acquired volume of 1 hm3 it is possible to achieve 95% < PH < 99%. Therefore, it follows from this analysis that this river can provide a significant amount of water for the needs of the Municipality of Suhareka.
Źródło:
Journal of Ecological Engineering; 2022, 23, 7; 246--256
2299-8993
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Ecological Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Exponential smoothing and resampling techniques in time series prediction
Autorzy:
Neves, Maria
Cordeiro, Clara
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/729996.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii
Tematy:
time series
bootstrap
exponential smoothing
forecasting
accuracy measures
Opis:
Time series analysis deals with records that are collected over time. The objectives of time series analysis depend on the applications, but one of the main goals is to predict future values of the series. These values depend, usually in a stochastic manner, on the observations available at present. Such dependence has to be considered when predicting the future from its past, taking into account trend, seasonality and other features of the data. Some of the most successful forecasting methods are based on the concept of exponential smoothing. There are a variety of methods that fall into the exponential smoothing family, each having the property that forecasts are weighted combinations of past observations. But time series analysis needs proper statistical modeling. The model that better describes the behavior of the series in study can be crucial in obtaining 'good' forecasts. Departures from the true underlying distribution can adversely affect those forecasts. Resampling techniques have been considered in many situations to overcome that difficulty. For time series, several authors have proposed bootstrap methodologies. Here we will present an automatic procedure built in R language that first selects the best exponential smoothing model (among a set of possibilities) for fitting the data, followed by a bootstrap approach for obtaining forecasts. A real data set has been used to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure.
Źródło:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics; 2010, 30, 1; 87-101
1509-9423
Pojawia się w:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of the Savitzky-Golay method for power output data set
Autorzy:
Gulkowski, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1940714.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Politechnika Gdańska
Tematy:
photovoltaics
solar energy
time series
PV data analysis
Opis:
The power output of a PV system changes in time during the day and strongly depends on the location and orientation of the photovoltaic module as well as on seasonal conditions. Clouds occurring during a partly cloudy day are the reason why this data is very irregular and difficult to analyze in terms of obtaining energy. The Savitzky-Golay method was applied for the power output data obtained for sunny, cloudy and partly cloudy days in order to determine the average level of power produced by a PV system at a given location. The total amount of energy was analyzed for each case.
Źródło:
TASK Quarterly. Scientific Bulletin of Academic Computer Centre in Gdansk; 2015, 19, 1; 25-34
1428-6394
Pojawia się w:
TASK Quarterly. Scientific Bulletin of Academic Computer Centre in Gdansk
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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