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    Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5
    Tytuł:
    Średniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarczego Polski. Podtrzymane ożywienie
    A Medium-Term Forecast for Poland’s Economic Growth: Sustained Recovery
    Autorzy:
    Welfe, Władysław
    Florczak, Waldemar
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575805.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2007-06-30
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    econometric models
    forecasts
    economic mechanisms
    Opis:
    The authors offer a medium-term projection for Poland’s economic growth in 2007-2011. The forecast was prepared with the use of an annual macroeconomic model developed at the Łódź University Faculty of Econometric Models and Forecasts. The model, which takes into account a number of exogenous variables and the latest trends in both the Polish economy and around the world, yields moderately optimistic conclusions about the possible paths of the country’s economic growth. In addition to the forecast, the authors discuss basic problems and threats to Poland’s future economic growth.
    Źródło:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2007, 216, 5-6; 85-96
    2300-5238
    Pojawia się w:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations
    Autorzy:
    Welfe, Władysław
    Florczak, Waldemar
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/953216.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010-09-30
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    econometric models
    forecasting
    simulations
    determinants of growth
    economic shocks
    Opis:
    The global financial crisis, and especially the recession that spread across Europe in 2009, also affected Poland. While the Polish economy continued to grow throughout 2009, its growth decelerated considerably in quarterly terms. The paper examines the determinants of the slowdown, based on a simulation macroeconomic model called W8D-2007. The model’s properties are briefly outlined, and then a baseline medium-term forecast is introduced and some simulation exercises are shown, dealing mainly with pessimistic scenarios. By means of simulations based on the W8D model, the paper tries to show the key factors behind the serious slowdown in the Polish economy in 2009. The model examines the impact of declining exports and FDI, on the one hand, and the growing investment risk and positive changes in household consumption, on the other. The possible impact of fiscal and monetary policies is also examined. The effects of a reduction of income tax rates and social contribution rates as well as the implications of an increased budget deficit are also shown, and finally the impact of declining interest rates on investment and consumer demand is evaluated. The likely effects of measures aimed at constraining the increase of unemployment rates are also analyzed. The results are compared with changing forecasts for the Polish economy presented during 2009.
    Źródło:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2010, 242, 9; 47-64
    2300-5238
    Pojawia się w:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania oczekiwanej długości życia w Polsce
    The Macroeconomic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Poland
    Autorzy:
    Florczak, Waldemar
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575761.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2009-06-30
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    life expectancy
    law of mortality
    determinants of mortality
    stepwise regression method
    econometric models
    economic growth
    Opis:
    The paper begins with the discussion of a cause-and-effect econometric model describing life expectancy in Poland in three variants: for men, women, and both sexes at the same time. The analysis is preceded by a brief review of research reports on the subject, with a special focus on empirical applications in the context of adequate explanatory variables. The estimation of the parameters was made with the use of a stepwise regression method, while the final version of the model was selected on the basis of a reliable statistical test, the author says. The research shows that the following variables had a statistically significant impact on life expectancy in Poland in the analyzed period (1975-2005): urbanization, the quality of healthcare, human capital, incomes, economic inequalities, social capital, behavioral factors, and the natural environment. However, the relative impact of these factors on life expectancy differed substantially for men and women, Florczak says. In the second part of the article, the author proposes a model breaking down the population by sex and age, with the use of a “top-down modeling strategy.” The parameters of the Gompertz mortality law and a logistic function were estimated for each year, with the entire population divided into coherent age groups. The resulting demographic model makes it possible to draw up forecasts and simulation scenarios taking into account links between the economic and demographic determinants of growth, Florczak says.
    Źródło:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2009, 232, 5-6; 61-90
    2300-5238
    Pojawia się w:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    "Klątwa surowcowa" a czynniki geograficzne i instytucjonalne
    "The Resource Curse": An Analysis of Geographical and Institutional Factors
    Autorzy:
    Kożuchowski, Adrian
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/574550.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2010-04-30
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
    Tematy:
    resource curse
    economic growth
    determinants of growth
    resource abundance
    econometric models
    Dutch disease
    institutional quality
    OLS-regression model
    Opis:
    The paper uses a set of international data to analyze the impact of countries’ resource abundance on their long-term economic growth. In particular, the author focuses on explaining the essence of what is known as the "resource curse". He uses two groups of determinants, geographical and institutional. The paper begins with a look at the gist of the problem, with the author discussing the rationale behind the research. This is followed by a discussion of other research reports on the subject and a short description of other authors’ findings. In the next part of the paper, Kożuchowski describes his own research method and the set of variables that he uses for his OLS-regression model. The parameters are estimated with the use of geographical and institutional variables, separately for each group, and the final versions of the models are selected on the basis of a set of reliable statistical tests, Kożuchowski says. The author makes several assumptions about "the resource curse". His research shows that key factors of growth include economic openness and political stability, while most geographical factors are not statistically or intuitively significant, Kożuchowski says. The author emphasizes the role of soft data for that kind of research. The results show that such variables adequately reflect the institutional position of countries, Kożuchowski concludes.
    Źródło:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2010, 239, 4; 21-45
    2300-5238
    Pojawia się w:
    Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Structural Changes in the Market of Bank Deposits of Households in Ukraine
    Autorzy:
    Kichurchak, Marianna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1022960.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021-03-31
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
    Tematy:
    a market of household bank deposits
    social and economic situation
    indicators of variation in household bank deposits
    interest rates on deposits
    econometric models
    Opis:
    The purpose of the article is to identify the main factors that cause the structural changes in the market of bank deposits of households by regions of Ukraine. This is based on evaluating the spatial asymmetries in this market development in 2009–2018 by regions of Ukraine and identifying the factors that influences its structure by gross regional product (GRP) by means of the methodology of multivariate econometric modelling. Methodology. The following scientific methods are used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparative analysis and econometric modelling. The scope and coefficients of variation for such indicators as the share of household bank deposits by GRP, the volume of household bank deposits per capita, the structure of household bank deposits by terms in general, in national and foreign currencies are calculated. Determining the main factors for multiple regression equations influencing structural changes in the market of household bank deposits by GRP is based on the methodology of stepwise regression. Results of the research. The spatial peculiarities of household bank deposits development in Ukraine was analysed and the reduction of its capacity was revealed due to the unfavourable socio-economic situation, the reform of the banking system and the influence of geopolitical factors. Based on the assessment of variation indicators dynamics, it was found that this market is characterised by regional asymmetries in terms of types of currencies and placement of household deposits. Regression-correlation equations were built, in which the shares of household deposits by regions of Ukraine (Y1, % GRP), in national currency (Y2, % GRP) and foreign currency (Y3, % GRP) are selected as dependent variables. The following measures are proposed to achieve positive changes in the market of household bank deposits in Ukraine: reducing unemployment; creation of favourable conditions for increasing the average monthly salary in the regions and modifying household spending to make savings; formation of an appropriate interest rate policy aimed at actively attracting temporarily available funds of the population to commercial banks.
    Źródło:
    Finanse i Prawo Finansowe; 2021, 1, 29; 61-78
    2391-6478
    2353-5601
    Pojawia się w:
    Finanse i Prawo Finansowe
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-5 z 5

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