Informacja

Drogi użytkowniku, aplikacja do prawidłowego działania wymaga obsługi JavaScript. Proszę włącz obsługę JavaScript w Twojej przeglądarce.

English (EN)·Polski (PL)·Yкраїнський (UK)
Przejdź do strony domowej biblioteki Centralna Biblioteka Wojskowa Link otwiera się w nowym oknie Logo biblioteki Prolib Integro - strona głównaCentralna Biblioteka Wojskowa

Wyszukujesz frazę "FORECASTING" wg kryterium: Temat

  Lista filtrów
Wyrównaj
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 24
Tytuł:
Heurystyki w prognozowaniu w przedsiębiorstwie
Heuristics in forecasting in enterprises
Autorzy:
Dittmann, Iwona
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425145.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
company
forecasting
heuristics
Opis:
Forecasts built for the needs of the enterprise may be inaccurate. Actual forecast errors (errors ex post) may be greater than the user-defined acceptable prediction errors. One reason for this may be the impact of psychological factors on the forecaster (eg. emotions) and the application of heuristics (usually unconsciously). The purpose of this article was, first, to draw attention to the issue of the possibility of various kinds of heuristics during the construction of forecasts in the company and second to indicate the possibility of eliminating the adverse effects of heuristics on the course and outcome of the forecasting process.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 4(46); 98-107
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting staffing decisions
Autorzy:
Wiśniewski, Jerzy W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424760.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
personnel decisions
microeconometrics
forecasting
Opis:
The purpose of this paper is to present tools to support personnel decisions in the company. The starting point is to measure the results of the work of employees in a given position. Combining the appropriate amount of information on the results of work in the past, a variety of workers and their important personal qualities will enable the construction of an econometric model. This model describes the mechanism of the effects of variation of operations, depending on the various characteristics of the employees. With such a model one can estimate the prediction effectiveness of individual candidates when the position becomes vacant. This may facilitate the selection of a suitable candidate from among many. This candidate has the greatest potential for productivity. The choice of such candidate is weighted with the lowest risk of erroneous personnel decisions.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 22-29
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecast accuracy and similarities in the development of mean transaction prices on Polish residential markets
Autorzy:
Dittmann, Iwona
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425120.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
shape similarity
forecasting
residential market
Opis:
This article presents the results of a study concerning the forecasting of mean transaction prices per 1 m2 in eight residential markets in Poland. The first research problem was an attempt to study the dependencies between the similarity of price development between these markets and the values of the errors of price forecasts that were constructed based on this similarity. The analysis showed a lack of a negative linear relationship. This means that a greater similarity in price development in different markets did not allow for the construction of forecasts with a smaller error. The second research problem was a construction of global mean price forecasts. The results showed that the proposed method of constructing global forecasts was, compared to the traditional one, better in the case of some markets, and worse for others.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 121-132
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Role of forecasting support in decision-making process. The case of debt to equity conversion
Autorzy:
Nita, Bartłomiej
Oleksyk, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/581598.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
financial forecasting
debt to equity conversion
Opis:
The articles addresses the usefulness of financial forecasting. Thus, the objective of the paper is to propose a forecasting approach that supports decision-making process in the context of debt to equity conversion. Methodology adopted in the paper involves an example case explaining the conversion of liabilities into equity. The considerations in the paper support the argument that the structured approach to financial forecasting is essential to understand the impact of debt to equity conversion on the future position of a company as reflected in its financial statement. The structure of the article is as follows. The first part of the paper focuses on the issues related to information support of decision-making process. The next section refers to financial forecasting in the context of debt analysis. In the last section we describe the use case, and the article concludes with a summary of work to date.
Źródło:
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu; 2017, 474; 185-194
1899-3192
Pojawia się w:
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of adaptive methods in demographic variables forecasting
Wykorzystanie metod adaptacyjnych do prognozowania zmiennych demograficznych
Autorzy:
Sojka, Elżbieta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424762.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
forecasting
demographic variables
adaptive methods
forecast error
Opis:
The research paper is focused on the assessment of the usefulness of adaptive methods in forecasting demographic variables. The goal of the paper is to conduct the retro and prospective analysis of selected demographic values in the sphere of changes in time, and also to indicate an efficient method for the forecasting of the studied values in subsequent periods. The time series for Poland for the period between 2000 and 2013 are the basis for the development of the forecast. Mean squared errors of ex post forecasts are used as forecast quality measures. The results of the study show that among the applied methods of forecasting, the method of creeping trend with harmonic weights is the most suitable as it gives the smallest forecast errors.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2015, 3 (49); 55-65
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Demand forecasting in an enterprise – the forecasted variable selection problem
Autorzy:
Dittmann, Paweł
Sobolewski, Adam Michał
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425024.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
demand
demand forecasting
operational measures of demand
Opis:
Forecasting process efficiency depends – to a large extent – on the correct determination of the forecasted variable. Therefore, companies should use for sales forecasting, the variables that reflect actual consumer demand. However in practice, since demand is usually not directly observable, many operational measures of demand are used. In the manufacturing and retail enterprises, the most often used variables are historical orders, shipments, and billed sales volumes. The purpose of this paper is to characterise the effects of using as the predicted variable, different operational measures of consumer demand. Theoretical discussion is illustrated by an attempt to estimate errors in demand forecasts for Avon Cosmetics’ products that are related to changes in data used for forecasting.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 61-70
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting industrial production in Poland – a comparison of different methods
Autorzy:
Acedański, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425092.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
forecasting
industrial production
leading indicators
factor models
Opis:
In this paper we compared the accuracy of a few forecasting methods of the industrial production index in Poland. Naïve forecasts, simple autoregressive models, leading indicator models, factor models as well as joint models were included in the considerations. We used the out-of-sample RMSE and CPA tests as the main measures of the predictions accuracy. We found that three models provided the best predictions in most cases – the models with the PMI index and with the PMI and German IFO indexes as leading indicators as well as joint forecasts.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 40-51
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Demand forecasting in a business based on experts’ opinions – an application of weibull distributions
Autorzy:
Dittmann, Paweł
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424785.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
demand
demand forecasting
experts’ opinions
Weibull distribution applications
Opis:
Demand forecasts in a business may be constructed by various methods, e.g. by using Type-I formal models, or by using type-II formal models based on experts’ opinions. The experts can be the business’s managers or persons from outside of the studied business. The experts can not only construct forecasts, but also subjectively specify the probability of them coming true. In this article, the Weibull distribution is described, a distribution that may be applied in the process of constructing product demand forecasts for a business. The methodology for constructing a point forecast is explained, along with the methods for evaluating the chances of the forecast coming true and the methods for judging the probability connected with sales profitability.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 52-60
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prognozowanie szeregów czasowych ze składową periodyczną z wykorzystaniem pakietu TSprediction programu R
Forecasting time series with periodic component using TSprediction R package
Autorzy:
Bartłomowicz, Tomasz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424791.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
forecasting
time-series methods
TSprediction package
R program
Opis:
The main aim of the paper is to present selected features of TSprediction package developed for R environment, which now is one of the most important commercial computing platforms (offered under the GNU GPL license). The article presents the features of the TSprediction package enabling the prediction of time series where there is a periodic component in the form of seasonal fluctuations. The package includes an implementation of the most popular time series methods of forecasting with a periodic component in the additive and multiplicative variety of ratio and Winters and Klein methods. The effects of selected forecasting functions and ex-post forecasting errors of TSprediction R package are presented in the examples.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 4(46); 199-210
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of descriptive models to forecasting seasonal time series with gaps
Autorzy:
Oesterreich, Maciej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424807.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
forecasting of missing data
descriptive models
systematic gap
Opis:
In this paper were presented the results of the application of quasi-simulation methods to analysis the impact of the occurrence of systematic gaps on the accuracy of inter and extrapolative forecasts for time series with seasonal fluctuations. Forecasts were built on the basis of predictors based on descriptive models with seasonally changing parameters. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated by the empirical example. The models estimation and construction of inter- and extrapolative forecasts were done with R and Statistica 10.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2015, 1 (47); 68-77
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prospective financial analysis with regard to enterprise risk exposure – the advantages of the Monte Carlo method
Autorzy:
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/950239.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
corporate finance
financial analysis
risk
Monte Carlo
forecasting
Opis:
Prospective financial analysis is a key decision tool in an enterprise. The traditional approach confronts the forecasted value of a financial category or a financial ratio with a requirement or a standard. Knowing that the particular category or the ratio meets the requirement or the standard is a kind of risk information, but realizing that the requirement or the standard is met with a particular probability level is a detailed image of risk. The aim of the paper is to indicate the possibility to increase the effectiveness of prospective financial analysis by using a Monte Carlo simulation. The biggest advantage of the presented approach (that is in fact the evolution of the traditional scenario approach to risk analysis) is that it delivers the detailed probability distributions of key financial categories and ratios. Shareholders accepting the results of prospective financial analysis with the Monte Carlo simulation should accept risk in a more conscious way than in the case of the traditional approach
Źródło:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach; 2016, 2(27); 23-37
2080-5993
2449-9811
Pojawia się w:
Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting fixed assets and their depreciation in conditions of volatile demand for production capabilities
Autorzy:
Ciupek, Bożena
Kaczmarzyk, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/581884.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
financial modelling
forecasting
corporate finance
risk
Monte Carlo approach
Opis:
A significant element of managing corporate finance is forecasting the financial situation of an enterprise. Forecasting means drawing up simplified financial statements (pro- -forma). One of the basic components of a financial situation forecast is estimating both: fixed asset levels, as well as their depreciation. In a volatile environment, the natural assumption is volatile demand for production capabilities, as a consequence of volatile economic conditions. Furthermore, eventual changes of the production capabilities being the consequence of purchasing and selling fixed assets are not smooth. Taking the above into account, the authors propose the concept of a financial model for forecasting fixed assets and their depreciation. The implementation of the model is also presented using a case study.
Źródło:
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu; 2017, 482; 17-28
1899-3192
Pojawia się w:
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wykorzystanie modelu PCM w prognozowaniu potencjału zawodowego kandydatów do pracy
Using PCM model in the prediction of career potential of candidates for a job
Autorzy:
Zięba, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424863.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
forecasting
career potential
Polytomous IRT Model
Partial Credit Model
Opis:
The issue of career potential is currently very popular. Experience and potential − that is what the most of employers are looking for. Employers are wondering whether the candidate has the potential to take on a new challenge training. The article attempts to bring the issue to measure the career potential. It presents the most common tools used by employers in the recruitment process and the most common mistakes committed by them. In the next part PCM model is shown, which can be a helpful tool in recruitment procedures − a tool used to assess the potential of training.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 4(46); 43-51
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting risk of decision – making processes
Autorzy:
Zemke, Jerzy
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425110.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
risk
risk model
risk measures
risk states
forecasting risk states
Opis:
What is the risk of decision-making processes, what causes it? Most typically, definitions of risk are ex post – they are looking at risk as a difference between expectations of results of actions taken and the actual performance. This is a considerable inconvenience, especially in cases when processes are of a long-term nature. Thus, is it possible to measure risk in the course of the decision-making processes? How can this be done and in what conditions can risk measures be extrapolated? An analysis of the definitions of risk shows that the one which is the most useful for solving the problem undertaken in the present study, is given by K. and T. Jajuga, “…the term of risk will refer to a decision, or, to be more precise, to an action taken as a result. One may therefore speak of taking risky decisions”. The authors make it clear that a risky decision is uncertainty as to “…the possibility for people to control the factors that determine the reality”. This suggestion, if accepted, enables one to construct a risk model as a random vector whose components are control variables of the decisionmaking processes taking place. In consequence, this makes it possible to estimate statistic measures of risk. Risk measures indicating the level of risk at moment t of decision-making processes represent a foundation of the problem announced by the title of the present study. Although they are merely a set of risk estimations, i.e. an assessment of its state, they nevertheless provide an opportunity to forecast risk levels within the period in which the processes occur, thus providing valuable information for decisions-makers.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 30-39
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Jakość prognostyczna wskaźników testu koniunktury przemysłowej dla Polski w przekroju województw
Forecast quality of indicators of industrial tendency survey across Voivodeships of Poland
Autorzy:
Kaźmierska-Zatoń, Maria
Zatoń, Wojciech
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424766.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
industrial tendency survey
forecast quality
forecasting at the regional level
Opis:
In this article the evaluation of the quality of indicators of industrial tendency survey in the Polish voivodeships in the short-term is presented. The attention is focused on the multi-faceted comparison of forecasts and assessments of the economic situation expressed by entrepreneurs. The tools used in the study are: graphic description and quantitative measures (Pearson correlation coefficient, a sign consistency index, a dynamic direction consistency index, sMAPE and Theil coefficients). Data source used were monthly data published by the CSO on the industrial tendency survey. Considering average values, both across voivodeships and some distinguished business characteristics, monthly assessments and forecasts of industrial tendency are consistent. Forecast quality of industrial tendency survey can be described as satisfactory. However, there are relatively large differences in the forecast quality across voivodeships as well as across business characteristics. The quality of the forecasts in terms of the direction consistency is clearly better than regarding the scale of the error.
Źródło:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2014, 4(46); 85-97
1507-3866
Pojawia się w:
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 24

Ta witryna wykorzystuje pliki cookies do przechowywania informacji na Twoim komputerze. Pliki cookies stosujemy w celu świadczenia usług na najwyższym poziomie, w tym w sposób dostosowany do indywidualnych potrzeb. Korzystanie z witryny bez zmiany ustawień dotyczących cookies oznacza, że będą one zamieszczane w Twoim komputerze. W każdym momencie możesz dokonać zmiany ustawień dotyczących cookies