Temat: Econometric models - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Średniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarczego Polski. Podtrzymane ożywienie
A Medium-Term Forecast for Poland’s Economic Growth: Sustained Recovery
Autorzy:: Welfe, Władysław
Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575805.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2007-06-30
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:: econometric models
forecasts
economic mechanisms
Opis:: The authors offer a medium-term projection for Poland’s economic growth in 2007-2011. The forecast was prepared with the use of an annual macroeconomic model developed at the Łódź University Faculty of Econometric Models and Forecasts. The model, which takes into account a number of exogenous variables and the latest trends in both the Polish economy and around the world, yields moderately optimistic conclusions about the possible paths of the country’s economic growth. In addition to the forecast, the authors discuss basic problems and threats to Poland’s future economic growth.
Źródło:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2007, 216, 5-6; 85-96
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations
Autorzy:: Welfe, Władysław
Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/953216.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010-09-30
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:: econometric models
forecasting
simulations
determinants of growth
economic shocks
Opis:: The global financial crisis, and especially the recession that spread across Europe in 2009, also affected Poland. While the Polish economy continued to grow throughout 2009, its growth decelerated considerably in quarterly terms. The paper examines the determinants of the slowdown, based on a simulation macroeconomic model called W8D-2007. The model’s properties are briefly outlined, and then a baseline medium-term forecast is introduced and some simulation exercises are shown, dealing mainly with pessimistic scenarios. By means of simulations based on the W8D model, the paper tries to show the key factors behind the serious slowdown in the Polish economy in 2009. The model examines the impact of declining exports and FDI, on the one hand, and the growing investment risk and positive changes in household consumption, on the other. The possible impact of fiscal and monetary policies is also examined. The effects of a reduction of income tax rates and social contribution rates as well as the implications of an increased budget deficit are also shown, and finally the impact of declining interest rates on investment and consumer demand is evaluated. The likely effects of measures aimed at constraining the increase of unemployment rates are also analyzed. The results are compared with changing forecasts for the Polish economy presented during 2009.
Źródło:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2010, 242, 9; 47-64
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania oczekiwanej długości życia w Polsce
The Macroeconomic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Poland
Autorzy:: Florczak, Waldemar
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575761.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009-06-30
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:: life expectancy
law of mortality
determinants of mortality
stepwise regression method
econometric models
economic growth
Opis:: The paper begins with the discussion of a cause-and-effect econometric model describing life expectancy in Poland in three variants: for men, women, and both sexes at the same time. The analysis is preceded by a brief review of research reports on the subject, with a special focus on empirical applications in the context of adequate explanatory variables. The estimation of the parameters was made with the use of a stepwise regression method, while the final version of the model was selected on the basis of a reliable statistical test, the author says. The research shows that the following variables had a statistically significant impact on life expectancy in Poland in the analyzed period (1975-2005): urbanization, the quality of healthcare, human capital, incomes, economic inequalities, social capital, behavioral factors, and the natural environment. However, the relative impact of these factors on life expectancy differed substantially for men and women, Florczak says. In the second part of the article, the author proposes a model breaking down the population by sex and age, with the use of a “top-down modeling strategy.” The parameters of the Gompertz mortality law and a logistic function were estimated for each year, with the entire population divided into coherent age groups. The resulting demographic model makes it possible to draw up forecasts and simulation scenarios taking into account links between the economic and demographic determinants of growth, Florczak says.
Źródło:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2009, 232, 5-6; 61-90
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: "Klątwa surowcowa" a czynniki geograficzne i instytucjonalne
"The Resource Curse": An Analysis of Geographical and Institutional Factors
Autorzy:: Kożuchowski, Adrian
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/574550.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010-04-30
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:: resource curse
economic growth
determinants of growth
resource abundance
econometric models
Dutch disease
institutional quality
OLS-regression model
Opis:: The paper uses a set of international data to analyze the impact of countries’ resource abundance on their long-term economic growth. In particular, the author focuses on explaining the essence of what is known as the "resource curse". He uses two groups of determinants, geographical and institutional. The paper begins with a look at the gist of the problem, with the author discussing the rationale behind the research. This is followed by a discussion of other research reports on the subject and a short description of other authors’ findings. In the next part of the paper, Kożuchowski describes his own research method and the set of variables that he uses for his OLS-regression model. The parameters are estimated with the use of geographical and institutional variables, separately for each group, and the final versions of the models are selected on the basis of a set of reliable statistical tests, Kożuchowski says. The author makes several assumptions about "the resource curse". His research shows that key factors of growth include economic openness and political stability, while most geographical factors are not statistically or intuitively significant, Kożuchowski says. The author emphasizes the role of soft data for that kind of research. The results show that such variables adequately reflect the institutional position of countries, Kożuchowski concludes.
Źródło:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2010, 239, 4; 21-45
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Metody ekonometryczne w modelach wzrostu gospodarczego
Econometric Methods in Economic Growth Models
Autorzy:: Goczek, Łukasz
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/575542.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2012-10-31
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
Tematy:: wzrost gospodarczy
modele empiryczne
metody ekonometryczne
konwergencja
economic growth
empirical models
econometric methods
convergence
Opis:: The article aims to review and assess different econometric methods used in the estimation of empirical models of economic growth. Such models play an important role in the economy because they yield conclusions for policymakers, the author says. His research showed that the preferred method for the estimation of dynamic models of growth based on cross-temporal data is the Generalized Method of Moments applied simultaneously on the levels and first differences with error correction used in small samples. However, in some cases, more accurate estimates could be obtained by using either the Kiviet or Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator instead of the Generalized Method of Moments, the author concludes.
Celem artykułu jest przegląd i ocena poszczególnych metod ekonometrycznych używanych w modelach empirycznych wzrostu gospodarczego, co ma zasadnicze znaczenie dla ekonomicznego znaczenia tych badań i siły wniosków z nich płynących dla polityki gospodarczej. Przyjętą metodą jest dyskusja teoretyczna poświęcona poszczególnym modelom empirycznym zilustrowana własnymi oszacowaniami omawianych modeli. W badaniu ekonometrycznym wykazano, że preferowaną metodą szacowania dynamicznych modeli wzrostu na danych przekrojowo-czasowych jest Uogólniona Metoda Momentów zastosowana jednocześnie na poziomach i na pierwszych różnicach z korektą błędu w małych próbach. W artykule również wskazano, że w innych zastosowaniach, właściwsze mogą być estymacje prowadzone przy pomocy estymatora Kivieta bądź estymatora PMG.
Źródło:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics; 2012, 259, 10; 49-71
2300-5238
Pojawia się w:: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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