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Wyświetlanie 31-45 z 624
Tytuł:
Forecasting the demand for transport services on the example of a selected logistic operator
Autorzy:
Grzelak, Małgorzata
Borucka, Anna
Buczyński, Zbigniew
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/223984.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
multiple regression
forecasting
cross-docking
Opis:
The number of shipments is growing every year, and as a result, new transport companies arise. The increase in competition requires from entrepreneurs to apply solutions increasing the level of services provided in order to best satisfy the needs of the customers. In this aspect, minimizing the time of deliveries is extremely important, and it can be achieved, for example, by implementing the cross-docking method. It consists in consolidation of cargo from different shipment locations that is delivered in the same direction. The main feature of the above method is to keep the labor intensity of operations and the interference in the cargo to the minimum. The purpose of this article is to present a research on a logistic operator working based on a cross-docking warehouse with a capacity significantly lower than the average daily quantity of shipments handled. This requires both effective management of the available space and minimizing the time spent on manipulation activities. Therefore, it is important to know the expected number of parcels that are planned to be received and shipped on a given day in order to coordinate the work in the warehouse. It is possible to estimate it by using mathematical methods of forecasting. One of them - the multiple regression - is presented in this article. The calculations were made on the basis of collected empirical observations concerning orders for pallet spaces placed by customers. Such a forecast allows for improvement of the processes of planning and management of the possessed resources. It allows to adjust the number of warehouse workers or vehicles necessary for internal transport to the expected needs. Ultimately, it may translate into more efficient functioning not only of the surveyed branch, but also of the whole network.
Źródło:
Archives of Transport; 2019, 52, 4; 81-93
0866-9546
2300-8830
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?
Autorzy:
Pierluigi, Beatrice
Bruha, Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/565632.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
Labour market
Forecasting
Kalman Filter
Opis:
A small labour market model for the six largest euro-area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium) is estimated in a state space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: trend labour force, trend labour productivity, long-run inflation rate and trend hours worked. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgment, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro-area labour markets react differently to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-2009 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery.
Źródło:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics; 2014, 2(2); 34-60
2353-6845
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wavelet-based forecasting of ARIMA time series - an empirical comparison of different methods
Autorzy:
Schluter, S.
Deuschle, C.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108362.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
forecasting
wavelets
denoising
multiscale analysis
Opis:
By means of wavelet transform, an ARIMA time series can be split into different frequency components. In doing so, one is able to identify relevant patters within this time series, and there are different ways to utilize this feature to improve existing time series forecasting methods. However, despite a considerable amount of literature on the topic, there is hardly any work that compares the different wavelet-based methods with each other. In this paper, we try to close this gap. We test various wavelet-based methods on four data sets, each with its own characteristies. Eventually we come to the conclusion that using wavelets does improve forecasting quality especially for time horizons longer than one-day-ahead. However, there is no single superior method: either wavelet-based denoising or wavelet-based time series decomposition is best. Performance depends on the data set as well as the forecasting time horizon.
Źródło:
Managerial Economics; 2014, 15, 1; 107-131
1898-1143
Pojawia się w:
Managerial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
On incentive compatible designs of forecasting contracts
Autorzy:
Kamiński, Bogumił
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453231.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
contract design
forecasting
scoring rules
Opis:
In the paper the optimal design of forecasting contracts in principal-agent setting is investigated. It is assumed that the principal pays the agent (the forecaster) based on an announced forecast and an event that materializes next. Such a contract is called incentive compatible if the agent maximizes her payoff when she announces her true beliefs. This paper relaxes the assumption present in earlier works on this subject that agent’s beliefs are deterministic by allowing them to be random (i.e. stemming from estimation). It is shown that for binary or nominal events the principal can learn only expected values of agent’s predictions in an incentive compatible way independent of agent’s signal space. Additionally it is proven that incentive compatible payment schemes give the agent a strictly positive incentive to improve the precision of her estimates.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2010, 11, 1; 189-198
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES IN ALBPETROL COMPANY
Autorzy:
Mjeda, Blerta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453489.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
uncertainty
simulation
evaluation
forecasting
scenarios
Opis:
Large companies like Albpetrol often deal with big projects. The decision to invest is based on the evaluation of the project profitability. But how certain is the calculated profitability? What if the costs overrun during implementation of the project? What if the reservoir performance is less than estimated? And what if the project completion is delayed? The focus will be on how to make people more aware of the risks and uncertainties in economic evaluations and to show the influence of these uncertainties on the economic indicators. Economic evaluations in the oil industry are carried out with cash flow models. Traditionally, these evaluations are carried out with the estimated (most likely) set of parameters. Usually some parameters, such as project costs or reserves, are varied manually as ‘sensitivities’ to show the potential impact on profitability. In this report, it is proposed to treat the uncertainties by defining stochastic parameters with carefully specified supports based on inputs from discipline experts. In this manner a better insight is gained in the distribution of the project profitability. Some of the key uncertainties in oil and gas investments have been investigated in detail. Thinking in terms of scenarios will help to take better decisions (e.g. about field development concepts) that are robust against a range of scenarios.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2018, 19, 4; 411-418
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Some praxiological reflections on the reliability of political forecasting
Autorzy:
Szałek, Benon Zbigniew
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1963320.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018-12-31
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
Tematy:
praxiology
reliability
political forecasting
Stratfor
Opis:
The aim of this paper is to present some praxiological reflections and doubts concerning the nature and reliability of political forecasting in present times.
Źródło:
Reality of Politics; 2018, 9; 137-149
2082-3959
Pojawia się w:
Reality of Politics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Forecasting the distribution of precipitate diameters in the presence of changes in the structure of the material
Autorzy:
Zieliński, A.
Miczka, M.
Golański, G.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/356680.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
microstructure
precipitates
statistics
forecasting
ageing
Opis:
The results of investigations on the microstructure of T23 and T24 low-alloy steels as well as P91 and P92 high-chromium steels in the as-received condition and after 70.000 h annealing at 550-650°C are presented. The quantitative analysis of the existing precipitates was performed for representative images of microstructure. The statistical analysis of collected data allowed the parameters of a selected theoretical statistical distribution to be estimated. A forecast of average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 100,000 hours at 550 and 600°C for T23 and T24 steels and at 600 and 650°C for P91 and P92 steels was calculated. The obtained results of investigations have made it possible to compare changes in the microstructure of various steel grades due to long-term impact of elevated temperature. They have also confirmed the possibility of using, in evaluating the degradation degree of materials in use, the forecasting methods that derive from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and forecast by analogy methods. The presented approach allows the development of a forecast of precipitate diameter probability density under the microstructure instability conditions for selected steel grades. The assessment of material condition that takes into consideration, but is not limited to, the precipitate diameter measurement is useful as an assessment component in estimating the time of safe service of power unit elements working under creep conditions.
Źródło:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials; 2017, 62, 1; 273-280
1733-3490
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Metallurgy and Materials
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Methods Applied by Russia to Forecast the Influence on other Countries
Autorzy:
Słowik, Jakub Bartłomiej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2086241.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna im. Jarosława Dąbrowskiego
Tematy:
Russian strategic
forecasting
strategic matrix
influencing other countries
Russian foreign policy
safety forecasting
Russia
Opis:
Objectives: The purpose of this article is to identify the quantitative and qualitative methods applied by Russia in planning exerting influence on other countries, including members of the Visegrád Group. Methods: The research method used in this study consists in a systematic review of Russian and global political literature, as well as military literature, publications in the field of international relations, international politics, econometrics and forecasting, economy and management, in the aspect of the differences between the methods of forecasting the influence on other countries with respect to the methods described in international subject literature. Results: The conducted analysis of documents enabled the identification and drawing the characteristics of the strategic forecasting methods that Russia may apply to influence other countries. The study also identifies the institutions as well as researchers who deal with the issues related to forecasting influence on specific countries in Russia. Conclusions: Both the identified methods and the research centres focus on ensuring the effectiveness of Russian foreign policy that requires an accurate assessment of the current situation as well as detailed forecasts of potential events (scenarios) in the future. The method that deserves particular attention is the strategic matrix method, which has probably been modified, but its essential elements are still functioning.
Źródło:
Przegląd Nauk o Obronności; 2021, 6, 11; 43--73
2450-6869
Pojawia się w:
Przegląd Nauk o Obronności
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modele subiektywne w konstrukcji prognoz długookresowych
Subjective Models in the Design of Long-Term Forecasts
Autorzy:
Poradowska, Konstancja
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/586191.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Metody prognozowania
Modele ekonometryczne
Nowe technologie
Prognozowanie
Econometric models
Forecasting
Forecasting methods
High-tech
Opis:
In the paper are presented some aspects of construction and practical use of subjective forecasting models. The main objective was to identify the usefulness of these models in the design of long-term forecasts and scenarios for the development of new technologies. Theoretical considerations are supplemented with real examples of data analysis, obtained in the study of foresight "zero carbon energy economy in a sustainable development of the Polish to 2050", conducted by the Central Mining Institute in Katowice.
Źródło:
Studia Ekonomiczne; 2013, 124; 29-44
2083-8611
Pojawia się w:
Studia Ekonomiczne
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application out-of-sample forecasting in model selection on Nigeria exchange rate
Autorzy:
Henry, Akpensuen Shiaondo
Lasisi, K. E.
Akpan, E. A.
Gwani, A. A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1062858.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
ARMA model
Exchange Rate
In-sample forecasting
Model selection and evaluation
Out-sample forecasting
Opis:
In time series, several competing models may adequately fit a given set of data. At times choosing the best model may be easy or difficult. However, there are two major model selection criteria; it could be either in-sample or out-of-sample forecasts. This study was necessitated because Empirical evidence based on out-of-sample model forecast performance is generally considered more trustworthy than evidence based on in-sample model performance which can be more sensitive to outliers and data mining. And also the fact that Out-of-sample forecasts also better reflect the information available to the forecaster in real time was also an added motivation. Hence this study considered data from Nigeria exchange rate (Naira to US Dollar) from January 2002 to December 2018 comprising 204 observations. The first 192 observations were used for model identification and estimation while the remaining 12 observations were holdout for forecast validation. Three ARIMA models; ARIMA (0, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 1, 2) and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) were fitted tentatively. Base on in-sample information criteria ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was the best model with minimum AIC, SIC and HQ information criteria. However, on the basics of out-of-sample forecast evaluation using RMSE, MSE, MAE, and MAPE, ARIMA (2, 1, 0) perform better than ARIMA (0, 1, 1). The implication of this study is that, a model that is best in the in-sample fitting may not necessary give a genuine forecasts since it is the same data that is used in model identification and estimation that is also use in forecast evaluation.
Źródło:
World Scientific News; 2019, 127, 3; 225-247
2392-2192
Pojawia się w:
World Scientific News
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prognozowanie przewozów w regionie sieci transportowej
Traffic prognose in transportation region
Autorzy:
Cisowski, T.
Stokłosa, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/249725.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Instytut Naukowo-Wydawniczy TTS
Tematy:
prognozowanie
transport kolejowy
sieć transportowa
model prognozowania
transport
forecasting
rail
transport network
forecasting model
Opis:
Prognozowanie jest określeniem możliwego przebiegu procesu w przyszłości na bazie informacji pochodzących z przeszłości. Prognozowanie dotyczy różnych dziedzin wiedzy, w tym logistyki i transportu. W zależności od celu prognozy, dziedziny wiedzy, struktury i zakresu informacji o przeszłości można stosować różne metody i modele prognozowania.
Źródło:
TTS Technika Transportu Szynowego; 2014, 9; 36-38
1232-3829
2543-5728
Pojawia się w:
TTS Technika Transportu Szynowego
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Classification of forecasting methods in production engineering
Autorzy:
Winkowski, Cezary
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/125637.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Politechnika Białostocka. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Białostockiej
Tematy:
forecasting
forecasting method
production engineering
manufacturing company
prognozowanie
metoda prognozowania
inżynieria produkcji
zakład produkcyjny
Opis:
Business management is a continuous decision-making process. It is difficult to imagine a company that does not use forecasting techniques. Even small enterprises without relevant forecasting departments more or less consciously anticipate future events, forecasting the volume of production and setting directions for development. Today’s production companies must quickly adapt to changing customer requirements, implementing structural and technological changes and delivering projects related to the production of new products. Under the dynamically changing conditions, the functioning and effective management of modern enterprises depend on futureoriented information. This increases the validity of forecasting. This article aimed to identify forecasting methods and areas of their use in production engineering. The publications on this subject were reviewed in the Scopus database, using the time frame from January 1970 to June 2018. An original classification of research subareas was created using VOS viewer software, and then, a bibliometric map was developed to visualise the results of the word coexistence analysis. The analysis of the co-occurrence and co-classification of words made it possible to indicate research subareas of forecasting in production engineering and related emerging research areas and issues.
Źródło:
Engineering Management in Production and Services; 2019, 11, 4; 23-33
2543-6597
2543-912X
Pojawia się w:
Engineering Management in Production and Services
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Natural and anthropogenic causes of climate changes
Autorzy:
Haman, Krzysztof
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/703442.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
climate change
greenhouse effect
climate forecasting
Opis:
The paper gives a short review of the basic physical mechanisms responsible for climate changes with particular attention paid to the structure of the Atmosphere–the Rest of the Earth dynamical system and its chaotic nature. The essence of "greenhouse effect" is explained and input of various natural and anthropogenic factors into it is presented. Problems, difficulties and uncertainties connected with reconstruction of past climates and and forcasting the future are discussed. Particular role of mathematical modelling in understanding and predicting the evolution of climate is emphasized.
Źródło:
Nauka; 2008, 1
1231-8515
Pojawia się w:
Nauka
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Some Remarks on the Method of Cross-Influence of Events
Autorzy:
Dorosiewicz, Sławomir
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/503820.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu
Tematy:
Transport
Forecasting
Cross-influence of events
Opis:
The sufficient condition of existence and uniqueness of forecasts made by the method of cross-influence of events is formulated and proved. This result is ilustrated by the forecasts of the volume of road transport in Poland up to the year 2025.
Źródło:
Logistics and Transport; 2011, 13, 2; 93-98
1734-2015
Pojawia się w:
Logistics and Transport
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
THE METHODS OF FORECASTING OF CHANGES OF MUNICIPAL WASTE PRODUCTION IN CASE OF CITIES
Autorzy:
Cheba, Katarzyna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/655807.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:
forecasting
municipal waste
regression models
cities
Opis:
Waste management is currently one of the most important problems of the functioning of densely populated areas, important in the case of cities. The main problem of waste management is to break a simple correlation between economic growth and the increase in the amount of waste. Forecasting of amount of municipal waste generation on the basis of previously applied methods in the situation of large changes in socio-economic environment turns out to be inaccurate approach. In the literature a wide variety of geographically diverse factors are proposed for this purpose. This paper presents the results of modeling and forecasting of municipal waste generation changes in cities.  In this study, the impact of the various socio-economic factors for the municipal waste production was tested.
Źródło:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2014, 3, 302
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 31-45 z 624

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