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Tytuł:
A new method for computing the reliability of composite systems
Autorzy:
Karbasian, M.
Mahdavi, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069599.pdf
Data publikacji:
2007
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
reliability
extreme value
parallel structures
series model
life distribution
Opis:
This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system, which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole system using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series system and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structures will be computed.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 1; 199--203
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Impact of the Turkish Presidential System on the Turkish Lira
Autorzy:
Akarsu, Mahmut Zeki
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2047065.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-05-11
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
Turkish Lira
Currency
Democracy
Bayesian structural time-series model
Opis:
The political system always has a significant impact on economic indicators. Currency exchange is one of the indicators, which is influenced directly or indirectly by political developments. Investors and economic agents make investment decisions by not only economic outcomes but also political developments. Turkey is one of the countries, which can be an example of a domestic currency losing value significantly due to undemocratic political actions since the 2017 referendum. Therefore, in this study, the impact of the new presidential system on the Turkish Lira is investigated using the Bayesian structural time-series model in R software. According to the literature search, this study is the first article that analyzes how much the Turkish Lira decoupled negatively from peers and how badly the Turkish presidential system harms the Turkish Lira. According to the result, the undemocratic and unorthodox economic and political implementations cause the Turkish Lira to have dropped sharply and have decoupled negatively from other currencies significantly.
Źródło:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics; 2021, 1(15); 14-24
2353-6845
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Research on flux decline in nanofiltration of lactic acid solutions with ZRIV/PAA membranes application
Autorzy:
Połom, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/779163.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane ZUT w Szczecinie
Tematy:
nanofiltration
dynamically formed membranes
lactic acid
flux decline
resistance in series model
Opis:
The efficiency of lactic acid solutions nanofiltration with dynamically formed zirconium (IV) hydrous oxide polyacrylate (ZrIV/PAA) membranes application were considered in this paper. The results of investigations on flux decline in nanofiltration of lactic acid solutions under conditions resulting in low and high lactic acid rejection are reported. In the long term experimental research on pressure driven membrane processes the main reason of permeate flux reduction is an accumulation of concentration polarization and fouling effects. The experimental permeate flux versus time curves were analyzed in the frame of resistance-in-series model with the aim to develop the characteristic fouling and concentration polarization resistances. The analysis of experimental data and results of calculations showed that both: concentration polarization and fouling phenomena in investigated system depend on hydrodynamic conditions and properties of filtered solutions and (ZrIV/PAA) membrane.
Źródło:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology; 2016, 18, 3; 17-21
1509-8117
1899-4741
Pojawia się w:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modified exponential time series model with prediction of total COVID-19 cases in Belgium, Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland
Autorzy:
Permpoonsinsup, Wachirapond
Sunthornwat, Rapin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2108252.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022-09-14
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
COVID-19
modified exponential time-series model
method of parameter estimation
compound growth rate
Opis:
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affected every country worldwide. In particular, outbreaks in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland entered the second wave and was exponentially increasing between July and November, 2020. The aims of the study are: to estimate the compound growth rate, to develop a modified exponential time-series model compared with the hyperbolic time-series model, and to estimate the optimal parameters for the models based on the exponential least-squares, three selected points, partial-sums methods, and the hyperbolic least-squares for the daily COVID-19 cases in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland. The speed and spreading power of COVID-19 infections were obtained by using derivative and root-mean-squared methods, respectively. The results show that the exponential least-squares method was the most suitable for the parameter estimation. The compound growth rate of COVID-19 infection was the highest in Switzerland, and the speed and spreading power of COVID-19 infection were the highest in Poland between July and November, 2020.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2022, 23, 3; 147-165
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Dynamic rating method of traction network based on wind speed prediction
Autorzy:
Su, Zhaoux
Tian, Mingxing
Sun, Lijun
Zhang, Ruopeng
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2086724.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
dynamic thermal rating
IEEE-738
short-term emergency dispatch
time series model
traction power supply
wind speed prediction
Opis:
The operating temperature of the transmission line in the traction network is affected by geographical and climatic factors, especially the wind speed. To make better use of the thermal stability transmission capacity of the traction power supply system in improving the short-term emergency transmission capacity, the dynamic rating technology is introduced into the traction power supply system. According to the time-varying characteristics of the actual wind speed, a dynamic rating method of the traction network based on wind speed prediction is proposed and constructed. Based on the time series model in predicting the wind speed series along the corridor of the traction network, the temperature curve of each transmission line under different currents is calculated by combining it with the heat balance equation of an IEEE-738 capacity expansion model, thus the relationship between the peak operating temperature and current of each transmission line in the prediction period is obtained. According to the current distribution coefficient, the capacity increase limit of the traction network is determined. The example shows that the proposed dynamic rating method based on wind speed prediction is an effective method to predict the short-term safe capacity increase limit of the traction network, which can increase the comprehensive capacity of the traction network by about 45% in the next six hours, and the capacity increase effect is obvious, which can provide reference and technical support for short-term emergency dispatching of traction power supply dispatching centres.
Źródło:
Archives of Electrical Engineering; 2022, 71, 2; 379--395
1427-4221
2300-2506
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Electrical Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Fouling membran ceramicznych w procesie ultrafiltracji roztworów białka i chlorku sodu
Analysis of ceramic membrane fouling during ultrafiltration of protein and sodium chloride solutions
Autorzy:
Szaniawska, D.
Kuca, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2071203.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
membrany ceramiczne
ultrafiltracja
zużyte solanki
fouling membranowy
model oporów szeregowych
ceramic membranes
ultrafiltration
waste protein salted solutions
membrane fouling
resistance-in-series model
Opis:
W publikacji przedstawiono wyniki badań doświadczalnych procesu ultrafiltracji modelowych i przemysłowych solanek z zastosowaniem membran ceramicznych 150 kDa. Głównym celem badań była analiza wpływu dwóch podstawowych parametrów operacyjnych, stężenia chlorku sodu w nadawie i ciśnienia transmembranowego TMP m fouling badanej membrany ceramicznej Al2O3/TiO2/ZrO2.
Results of ultrafiltration studies using ceramic 150 kDa membrane and model solutions containing bovine serum albumin and sodium chloride as well as salted wastewater from fish industry are reported. A main objective of this work was to study the effect of two main operating parameters, i.e. sodium chloride concentration in feed solution and transmembrane pressure, TMP, on fouling behavior of ceramic Al2O3/TiO2/ZrO2. membrane during ultrafiltration tests.
Źródło:
Inżynieria i Aparatura Chemiczna; 2010, 3; 109-110
0368-0827
Pojawia się w:
Inżynieria i Aparatura Chemiczna
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification of stable elementary bilinear time-series model
Autorzy:
Malinski, L.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/229601.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
bilinear model
time-series
identification
Opis:
The paper presents new approach to estimation of the coefficients of an elementary bilinear time series model (EB). Until now, a lot of authors have considered different identifiability conditions for EB models which implicated different identifiability ranges for the model coefficient. However, all of these ranges have a common feature namely they are significantly narrower than the stability range of the EB model. This paper proposes a simple but efficient solution which makes an estimation of the EB model coefficient possible within its entire stability range.
Źródło:
Archives of Control Sciences; 2016, 26, 4; 577-595
1230-2384
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Control Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The design of forecasting system used for prediction of electro-motion spare parts demands as an improving tool for an enterprise management
Autorzy:
Kačmáry, Peter
Malindžák, Dušan
Spišák, Ján
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/409825.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
STE GROUP
Tematy:
forecast
spare parts
time series
order
model
Opis:
This article describes the design of a simple forecasting system and its practical application to predict the sporadic needs for a spare part. The article shows new approach already implemented in the special servicing and production company in Slovakia and its results during a short period of performance after its implementation. Such a proposed model can be a part of the purchase planning of spare parts within the company's logistics system. In some companies, the material flow of spare parts is dominant element in terms of logistics costs. Their management is therefore important for cost optimization, customer satisfaction and market sustainability in a competitive environment. The article, in its introductory part, provides an overview of similar practical solutions within the research of this topic, but many models are designed to be applied in a global market environment and predict the amount of spare parts needed in different industries. However, these models are difficult to use for the needs of a small enterprise, because the main problem lies in the time of a spare part demand rather than its quantity. If there is a need for a specific spare part, which costs several hundred or thousands of euros, but the consumption is only a few pieces per year or more than a year, the time prediction of required spare parts is therefore crucial.
Źródło:
Management Systems in Production Engineering; 2019, 4 (27); 242-249
2299-0461
Pojawia się w:
Management Systems in Production Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
SPAD timing jitter modeling using Fourier series
Autorzy:
Eyvazi, Kaveh
Karami, Mohammad Azim
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27310093.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
analytical model
Fourier series
multiplication time
timing jitter
Opis:
In this paper, a simple analytical model for the Gaussian’s peak response part of the timing jitter of single photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) is proposed using Fourier series in the multiplication time calculation. The multiplication time characterizes avalanche multiplication process speed in which low multiplication time suggests a swifter response time and a higher avalanche speed. This paper presents an analytical solution which results in a more accurate multiplication time. The model is verified for SPADs implemented in 0.15 and 0.18 μm standard CMOS process, and the accuracy of the proposed analytical method in full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) calculation is improved by 25% and 5% with respect to the numerical model, respectively.
Źródło:
Optica Applicata; 2023, 53, 2; 239--248
0078-5466
1899-7015
Pojawia się w:
Optica Applicata
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Time series analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration for Bokaro District, Jharkhand, India
Analiza serii czasowych ewapotranspiracji potencjalnej upraw w dystrykcie Bokaro, Jharkhand, Indie
Autorzy:
Gautam, R.
Sinha, A. K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/293179.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
ARIMA model
evapotranspiration
forecasting
time series
ewapotranspiracja
model ARIMA
prognozowanie
serie czasowe
Opis:
Evapotranspiration is the one of the major role playing element in water cycle. More accurate measurement and forecasting of Evapotranspiration would enable more efficient water resources management. This study, is therefore, particularly focused on evapotranspiration modelling and forecasting, since forecasting would provide better information for optimal water resources management. There are numerous techniques of evapotranspiration forecasting that include autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA), autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Thomas Feiring, etc. Out of these models ARIMA model has been found to be more suitable for analysis and forecasting of hydrological events. Therefore, in this study ARIMA models have been used for forecasting of mean monthly reference crop evapotranspiration by stochastic analysis. The data series of 102 years i.e. 1224 months of Bokaro District were used for analysis and forecasting. Different order of ARIMA model was selected on the basis of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) of data series. Maximum likelihood method was used for determining the parameters of the models. To see the statistical parameter of model, best fitted model is ARIMA (0, 1, 4) (0, 1, 1)12.
Ewapotranspiracja jest jednym z głównych elementów obiegu wody. Dokładniejsze pomiary i możliwość prognozowania ewapotranspiracji mogłyby umożliwić wydajniejsze zarządzanie zasobami wodnymi. Dlatego prezentowane w niniejszej pracy badania skoncentrowane były na modelowaniu i prognozowaniu ewapotranspiracji, ponieważ prognozowanie zapewni więcej informacji do optymalnego zarządzania zasobami wodnymi. Istnieje wiele technik prognozowania ewapotranspiracji, takich jak autoregresja (AR), średnia ruchoma (MA), autoregresyjna średnia ruchoma (ARMA), autoregresyjna zintegrowana średnia ruchoma (ARIMA), metoda Thomasa– Feiringa i inne. Stwierdzono, że spośród nich ARIMA jest bardziej odpowiednia do analizy i prognozowania zdarzeń hydrologicznych. Z tego powodu wykorzystano model ARIMA do prognozowania miesięcznych średnich wartości ewapotranspiracji potencjalnej poprzez analizę stochastyczną. Do analiz i prognozowania użyto serii danych ze 102 lat (1224 miesiące) z dystryktu Bokaro. Na podstawie funkcji autokorelacji (ACF) i cząstkowych autokorelacji (PACF) serii danych wybrano różny porządek modelu ARIMA. Do wyznaczenia parametrów modelu wykorzystano metodę maksymalnego prawdopodobieństwa. Najlepiej dostosowanymi parametrami statystycznymi modelu okazały się ARIMA (0, 1, 4) (0, 1, 1)12.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2016, 30; 51-56
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Research on the combustion process using time series
Badania procesu spalania z wykorzystaniem szeregów czasowych
Autorzy:
Grądz, Żaklin
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/407883.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Politechnika Lubelska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Lubelskiej
Tematy:
time series
ARIMA model
flame luminosity
szereg czasowy
model ARIMA
jasność świecenia płomienia
Opis:
In the combustion process, one of the most important tasks is related to maintaining its stability. Numerous methods of monitoring, diagnostics, and analysis of the measurement data are used for this purpose. The information recorded in the combustion chamber constitute one-dimensional time series. In the case of non-stationary time series, which can be transformed into the stationary form, the autoregressive integrated moving average process can be employed. The paper presented the issue of forecasting the changes in flame luminosity. The investigations discussed in the work were carried out with the ARIMA model (p,d,q). The presented forecasts of changes in flame luminosity reflect the actual processes, which enables to employ them in diagnostics and control of the combustion process.
W procesie spalania jednym z najważniejszych zadań jest zachowanie jego stabilności. Do tego celu wykorzystywanych jest wiele metod z zakresu monitorowania, diagnostyki i analizy danych pomiarowych. Zarejestrowane w komorze spalania informacje są jednowymiarowymi szeregami czasowymi. W przypadku niestacjonarnych szeregów czasowych, które można przekształcić do formy stacjonarnej, znalazły zastosowanie scałkowane procesy autoregresji i średniej ruchomej. W artykule przedstawiono problematykę prognozowania zmian intensywności świecenia płomienia. Badania zaprezentowane w pracy zostały przeprowadzone z wykorzystaniem modelu ARIMA(p,d,q). Przedstawione prognozy zmian intensywność świecenia płomienia odwzorowują rzeczywiste przebiegi, co pozwala wykorzystać je w diagnostyce i sterowaniu procesem spalania.
Źródło:
Informatyka, Automatyka, Pomiary w Gospodarce i Ochronie Środowiska; 2020, 10, 2; 52-55
2083-0157
2391-6761
Pojawia się w:
Informatyka, Automatyka, Pomiary w Gospodarce i Ochronie Środowiska
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Autoregressive error-processes, cubic splines and tridiagonal matrices
Autorzy:
Drygas, Hilmar
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/729816.pdf
Data publikacji:
2003
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii
Tematy:
autoregressive processes
cubic splines interpolation
linear regression model
time series
Opis:
In the paper formulate for the inversion of some tridiagonal matrices are given. The results can be applied to the autoregressive processes.
Źródło:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics; 2003, 23, 2; 147-165
1509-9423
Pojawia się w:
Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of chromite processing plant data by first order autoregressive model
Autorzy:
Tasdemir, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/109877.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
time series
autoregressive model
time constant
process control
chromite processing
Opis:
Many mineral processing data can be monitored by a time series model. This research presents results of analysis and simulations of a chromite processing plant data determined by time series model. The plant data obtained by shift to shift include feed grade, concentrate grade, tailing grade, Cr/Fe ratio in concentrate. All the chromite processing data were found stationary over time. The autocorrelation was high for feed grade and Cr/Fe ratio. Weaker autocorrelation was observed for concentrate grade and tailing grade. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, 1,0,0) or first order autoregressive (AR, 1) model, was found to fit all data very well. The models obtained have been also shown to be used for the near future estimation of these data. The time constant which is an indicator of sampling frequency of the data sets were determined. It was found that sampling frequency was enough for concentrate and tailing grade and their original values can be used in process control charts for monitoring. On the other hand, the sampling frequency should be reduced for feeding grade and Cr/Fe ratio for the same aims hence ARIMA residual charts were more suitable to monitor their values.
Źródło:
Physicochemical Problems of Mineral Processing; 2013, 49, 1; 157-174
1643-1049
2084-4735
Pojawia się w:
Physicochemical Problems of Mineral Processing
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
General Geometric Model of GNSS Position Time Series for Crustal Deformation Studies – A Case Study of CORS Stations in Vietnam
Autorzy:
Tran, Dinh Trong
Nguyen, Quoc Long
Nguyen, Dinh Huy
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2019404.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Przeróbki Kopalin
Tematy:
geometric model
GNSS position time series
crustal deformation
CORS stations
Vietnam
model geometryczny
GNSS
Wietnam
Opis:
In processing of position time series of crustal deformation monitoring stations by continuous GNSS station, it is very important to determine the motion model to accurately determine the displacement velocity and other movements in the time series. This paper proposes (1) the general geometric model for analyzing GNSS position time series, including common phenomena such as linear trend, seasonal term, jumps, and post-seismic deformation; and (2) the approach for directly estimating time decay of postseismic deformations from GNSS position time series, which normally is determined based on seismic models or the physical process seismicity, etc. This model and approach are tested by synthetic position time series, of which the calculation results show that the estimated parameters are equal to the given parameters. In addition they were also used to process the real data which is GNSS position time series of 4 CORS stations in Vietnam, then the estimated velocity of these stations: DANA (n, e, u = -9.5, 31.5, 1.5 mm/year), HCMC (n, e, u = -9.5, 26.2, 1.9 mm/year), NADI (n, e, u = -10.6, 31.5, -13.4 mm/year), and NAVI (n, e, u = -13.9, 32.8, -1.1 mm/year) is similar to previous studies.
Źródło:
Inżynieria Mineralna; 2021, 2; 183--197
1640-4920
Pojawia się w:
Inżynieria Mineralna
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of the impact of selected economic variables on sorghum prices in Nigeria
Autorzy:
Ajibade, Toyin Benedict
Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Ojoko, Emmanuel Ada
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/952113.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
autocorrelation
cochrane-orcutt procedure
cereal
cointegration
error correction model
time series
Opis:
Nigeria is the world’s leading producer of sorghum intended for use as food grain. Likewise, there has been growing industrial demand for sorghum in the livestock breeding and brewery sectors. As sorghum prices have been on the increase, it becomes pertinent to identify the determinants of this development in order to nip the imminent food crisis in the bud. This study relied on time series data spanning from 1970 to 2015 retrieved from FAOSTAT and World Bank databases. Analytical methods employed include the unit root test, cointegration test and error correction mechanism. The diagnostic tests indicated the presence of autocorrelation which was subsequently adjusted with the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure. Subsequent tests indicated that variables fit well to the model. As shown by the ADF unit root test, the modeled variables were non-stationary but became stationary after first differencing. At a significance level of 5%, the sorghum price was determined by gross domestic product (GDP), annual money supply, official exchange rate and crude oil price, both in the long and short run, whereas the lagged price of sorghum also had an effect on prices in the short run. The study recommends that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, annual money supply and official exchange rate be taken cognizance of when planning the agricultural development in Nigeria.
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2017, 46, 4; 723-729
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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