Temat: metoda testu koniunkturalnego - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Działalność inwestycyjna przedsiębiorstw w świetle metody testu koniunkturalnego
Investment Activity of Enterprises in the Light of Method of Economic Situation Test
Autorzy:: Przybylska-Kapuścińska, Wiesława
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500018.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1999
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Inwestycje, Koniunktura gospodarcza, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego
Investment, Business trends, Business condition test method
Opis:: Investment activity, realised in long time, is very important of business situation. It concerns as generator of business cycles. Investment activity can be consider in two options: the diagnose and prognose. The qualitative indicators of diagnose represent the macroeconomic tendencies of economic development by reason of the high part of industry in realisation of total investment. The qualitative indicators of prognose have a leading character and they inform about of the expectations of economic agents in the changes of investment, source of finance, kinds and results of investment. The credibility of investment indicators is better than the other qualitative indicators (for example demand). They can be additional instrument in formulation of medium time strategy.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 129-139
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Ocena działalności przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych na podstawie wyników testów koniunktury prowadzonych przez GUS
The Evaluation of Industrial Companies Activity on the Basis of Results of Economic Situation Tests Carried on by GUS
Autorzy:: Sękowska, Hanna
Zagoździńska, Izabella
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500014.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1999
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Przedsiębiorstwo przemysłowe
Business trends, Business condition test method, Industrial enterprises
Opis:: In the article, different ways of use of the results of business tendency surveys in manufacturing industry conducted in the Central Statistical Office of Poland have been presented. The survey conducted since June 1992 has been described: its scope, frequency, content of questionnaires, sampling method, grouping of results. Long enough time-series and good quality of results prove to use this survey's results in short-term analysis of the present and future economic situation. To evaluate quality of business tendency survey's results, comparison between qualitative information and similar quantitative indices (for sold production, employment and prices) and between diagnosis and forecasts (general econoinic situation, total and foreign demand, sold production, financial situation) have been presented. Additionally comparison of results of different business tendency surveys (industry — construction — retail trade) has been analysed. Results for selected groups of industrial enterprises (small — large, different industrial activilies) have been presented as examples of possible detailed use of business tendency surveys' results. The general conclusion is that quality of results obtained in the above mentioned analysis is satisfying. Although a tendency to present more optimistic forecasts than diagnosis was observed, trends are comparable. Quick changes of the Polish economy cause that enterpreneurs present better forecasts for shorter period (one month instead of one quarter). Together with the stability of the Polish economy this horizon should be longer. Correlation between comparative qualitative and quantitalive surveys' results is good enough (and becoming better with the stabilisation of the economy). Quality of results obtained for different groups of enterprises is comparable, better for more stable industries, strongly linked with domestic rather than foreign markets.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 7-23
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Ocena sytuacji przedsiębiorstw budowlanych na podstawie wyników testów koniunktury prowadzonych przez GUS
The Evaluation of Building Companies Situation on the Basis of Results of Economic Situation Tests Carried on by GUS
Autorzy:: Walkowska, Katarzyna
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500068.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1999
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Przedsiębiorstwo budowlane
Business trends, Business condition test method, Construction company
Opis:: Business tendency survey of constructing enterprises has been conducted by Central Statistical Office since July 1993. The sample contains 3,5 thousand of public and private enterprises employing morę than 5 persons. Every month enterprises respond the questionnaire conceming - among others — present and futurę economic situation, order books, value of production and financial situation of the enterprise. This year there was a bi-yearly investment survey added. Both surveys are harmonised with the joint harmonised EU programme of business and consumer surveys. At the beginning of the paper the evaluation of the survey is done based on the comparison of quantitative and qualitative data. Time series were seasonally adjusted with XII Arima method. The results of the correlations between diagnostic and prognostic qualitative data as well as correlations between qualitative and quantitative data for totals are presented in the tables below. In most of cases the results of the correlations madę for raw data are a little better than for data seasonally adjusted. It could be caused by the high seasonality of data for construction. It was also checked that the results of the correlation are better for prognostic data not lagged or lagged one month only than for data lagged two or three months although prognostic questions concern the futurę three months. It indicates that it is easier for respondents to make a prognosis for a closer future than it is asked in the questionnaire. The results presented above allow us to use business survey results as a good assessment of the economic situation of the Polish constructing enterprises. The trends of the present order books and forecasted production are compared on Graph No 1. They show the rapid improvement of the business tendency till 1997 and its rolling adjustment in the following years. Similar tendencies are noted for other variables for totals as well as for enterprises divided according to the sector of ownership or number of employees. In the First years of conducting the survey the situation of public enterprises was better than of private ones. Since the present year the better position of private enterprises could be seen. It might prove the greater ability of private enterprises to adapt to changes of economic situation. The results of the survey conducted by the Central Statistical Office confirm the tendencies observed in the recent years — the improvement of the situation till its stabilisation in 1997 and then the broke of the pace of the increase since 1998. At the same time, since 1998, the slow down of the increase of prices has been observed.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 25-34
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Możliwości opisu stanu gospodarki na podstawie testów koniunktury
Possibilities of describing economic situation based on business activity tests
Autorzy:: Adamowicz, Elżbieta
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500456.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1998
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Badania ankietowe, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Badania koniunktury
Business trends, Questionnaire survey, Business condition test method, Business surveys
Opis:: In chapter 1, business activity tests, conducted by the IRG (Research Institute of Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics) since 1986, have been described. Variables observed in individual projects have been presented with concentration on questionnaires used to analyze business activity in manufacturing and construction industries. Research tools used by the RIED werę compared with requirements of the European Union and EUROSTAT, and conchision has been reached that RIED business activity tests are consistent with harmonization requirements. As a result, it is possible to use data collected by the means of questionnaires for international comparisons. Business activity tests are a specific form of monitoring the current State of Polish economy. Regular observations of behavior of enterprises, repeated in monthly (industry) or quarterly (construction) cycles, allow to conclude what kond of behavior dominates among businesses. Getting acquainted with responses of enterprises is particularly important in the period of system transformation. It allows to analyze the rate of changes in various fields of economic activity and to adjust macroeconomic policy tools to phenomena taking place in the economy. Data collected as the result of business activity survey’s allow to analyze business activity as a business cycle. In particular, they make it possible to determine, with advance in comparison to data collected by traditional methods, the critical points of a cycle which point to changes in direction of economic activity. Thanks to that property, so-called early warning indicators are designed. Growing demand for information on real economy makes data collected as a result of business activity tests a valuable source of additional information. To use it, however, it is necessary to find research methods and tools which allow to predict trends on the basis of qualitative data. This study describes efforts to find these tools.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1998, 60; 7-30
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Statystyczna analiza wyników testu koniunktury
Statistical Analysis of Results of Business Activity Tests
Autorzy:: Podgorska, Maria
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500506.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1998
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Wnioskowanie statystyczne, Analiza statystyczna
Business trends, Business condition test method, Inferential statistics, Statistical analysis
Opis:: Results of business activity tests are characterized by very strong structural variation. Complex, multidimensional structure of population of enterprises being considered is the main source of diversity. Dynamic approach introduces periodical variation in values of certain variables, intensity of observed processes, and quality of ex post predictions. For instance, in construction industry, one factor which introduces the largest variation is the criterion of ownership. Also for industrial enterprises and trading companies, the largest differences are observed between groups of public sector and private sector enterprises. For the purpose of analysis of business activity tests results, traditional statistical methods may be used. In this chapter we introduce point estimators and interwal estimators of balances and business activity indicators. We consider the problem of aggregation of balances and define distribution of aggregated balances and its main moments. We present a construction of a significance test with test statistics A which has asymptotically normal distribution. The test measures significance of differences of business activity indicators between selected structural groups. We list assumptions necessary to obtain probability distributions of appropriate variables and show the most important properties of these distributions. Applications of proposed statistical analysis methods are described using construction industry activity data for Poland and Italy. As an example of conclusions drawn for Poland, we found strong correlation between assessments of business activity and sociopolitical conditions, as well as unfair treatment of different groups of business enterprises by central administration. Analysis of seasonal variation of construction industry activity confirmed legitimacy of assumed business activity indicator. It is a leading indicator which precedes changes in economic situation by about 3 months. Results of business activity tests for Italian industry do not confirm existence of significant seasonal variation of business activity. Results aggregated over 30 years of conducting tests in Italy clearly indicate that in construction industry, unfavorable periods outnumber favorable ones.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1998, 60; 65-88
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Możliwości diagnozy i prognozy koniunktury w handlu detalicznym
Possibilities of Diagnosis and Prognosis of Economic Situation of Retail Trade
Autorzy:: Ciok, Alicja
Jerczyńska, Maria
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/499942.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1999
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Prognozy gospodarcze, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
Business trends, Economic forecast, Business condition test method, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
Opis:: Economic sentiment indicator in retailing summarizing the goods and finances turnover, indicates the permanent growth during the last five years. It may be treated mainly as a result of the increased number of the large trade units. The corresponding changes in indicator values (for example sales) do not affect inner consistency of business survey of Polish retail trade. By this consistency we understand concordance of assessments of actual situation ex post with forecasts, both provided by the suwy. The forecast range turned out only 1 month although the suwy questionnaire demands the 3 month forecasts. There are significant agreement of these forecasts with respective quantitative indices published by the Central Statistical Office.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 35-46
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Metody analizy szeregów czasowych w porównaniu wyników testu koniunktury w budownictwie IRG i danych ilościowych GUS-u
Methods of Time Based Series Analysis in Comparison with Results of Economic Situation Test in Building IRG and Quantitative date from GUS
Autorzy:: Jędryka, Anna
Kieloch, Katarzyna
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500182.pdf
Data publikacji:: 1999
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: Koniunktura gospodarcza, Szeregi czasowe, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
Business trends, Time-series, Business condition test method, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
Opis:: The purpose of this paper is to compare the results of studies on business situation in the coustruction industry, madę by Research Institute of Economic Development of Warsaw School of Economies, with the processes occurring in reality. In order to make the comparison between these two categories classical statistical methods are applied. For every pair of variables, "qualitative variable” (the result of the sumy dealt by Research Institute) and "quantitative variable” (macroeconomic factors published by GUS), we count mean, variance and correlation coefficient, we also built regression function and statistical indices. We also used statistical test to prove if coefficients are statistically significant. Results suggest that there is a strong correlation between two of the variables at least.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 185-195
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Badania koniunktury IRG SGH. Historia równoległa
Business Cycle Research of RIED (WSE). Parallel history
Autorzy:: Kokocińska, Małgorzata
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500384.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2012
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:: badania koniunktury
metoda testu koniunkturalnego
CIRET
GUS
IRG SGH
historia badań w Polsce
business and consumer surveys CIRET
CSO
RIED
history of research in Poland
Opis:: Upływ czasu związany z wprowadzeniem i rozwinięciem badań koniunktury metodą testu koniunkturalnego w Polsce skłania do syntezy i podsumowania dotychczasowych rezultatów badawczych. Jednocześnie warto przypomnieć historię implementacji tej metody badawczej w warunkach bardzo wczesnej fazy gospodarki rynkowej, zarówno z organizacyjnego jak i badawczego punktu widzenia. Pierwsze doświadczenia sięgają bowiem końca lat 80. ubiegłego wieku. W tym czasie pierwsze eksperymenty z tą nową w warunkach polskiej gospodarki metodą rozpoczęły dwie uczelnie: Szkoła Główna Handlowa i ówczesna Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu. Jak pokazuje doświadczenie, drogi te okazały się odmienne. Pierwsza, reprezentowana przez Instytut Rozwoju Gospodarczego, prowadziła do powstania i utrzymania ośrodka badawczego z własną bazą danych. Druga, reprezentowana przez Katedrę Mikroekonomii, polegała na przekazaniu własnych doświadczeń Głównemu Urzędowi Statystycznemu i współpracy z tym ośrodkiem. Artykuł skupia się na historii wprowadzenia badań koniunktury metodą testu koniunkturalnego do GUS, traktując to jako równoległą ścieżkę wobec koncepcji budowania własnego ośrodka badawczego. W końcowej części podkreśla się wady i zalety obu rozwiązań.
Time passing associated with the introduction and development of business survey in Poland has led to the synthesis and summary of existing research results. At the same time it is worth recalling the history of the implementation of the business tendency surveys in a very early stage of the market economy, from both an organizational and research points of view. The first experience dates back to the late 80s of the last century. At that time, the first experiments with the new method in conditions of the Polish economy began at two universities: Warsaw School of Economics and University of Economics in Poznań. As the experience shows, these ways turned out to be different. The first, represented by the Research Institute for Economic Development (RIED), led to the creation and maintenance of a research center with its own database. The second, represented by the Microeconomic Department, was to transfer its own experiences to the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and cooperation with it. The article focuses on the history of the introduction of the business survey method to the Central Statistical Office, treating it as a parallel track to the concept of building its own research center. In the final section the advantages and disadvantages of both ways are presented.
Źródło:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2012, 90: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część I; 9-35
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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