Temat: FORECASTING - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: WHY ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE NOT ACCURATE
Autorzy:: Beata, Bazeli,
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/897983.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2018-12-11
Wydawca:: Kujawsko-Pomorska Szkoła Wyższa w Bydgoszczy
Tematy:: forecasting
forecast
forecasting methods
forecast accuracy
Opis:: Predicting the future is an essential element in the preparation of human action, and one of the predictions of the future is forecasting. The methodology of forecasting economic processes is very rich and extremely difficult workshop and therefore there are many methods of forecasting. The article discusses the conditions under which more or less accurate forecasts of the future can be made. The purpose of the study is to identify the main causes for the failure of forecasts while emphasizing the need to develop them.
Źródło:: Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy; 2017, 1(10); 11-23
1899-9573
Pojawia się w:: Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Future Life-Tables Based on the Lee-Carter Methodology and their Application to Calculating the Pension Annuities
Autorzy:: Rossa, Agnieszka
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/657675.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Tematy:: mortality forecasting
Lee-Carter model
future life-tables
pension annuity
Opis:: In the paper a new recursive approach to the mortality forecasting is proposed based on the well-known Lee-Carter stochastic model. The standard Lee- -Carter method and its modified version are presented and compared using mortality data for Poland in the time period 1990-2007. The results obtained indicate that the recursive approach gives more accurate forecasts in terms of the mean squared error. Stochastic forecasts of age-specific death rates are also used to predict death prob- abilities and life expectancy being the main parameters of the life-tables. As an example, future life-tables for 2020 are calculated. Applications of Lee-Carter methodology in pension annuity calculations are presented.
Źródło:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2011, 250
0208-6018
2353-7663
Pojawia się w:: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

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