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Wyszukujesz frazę "uncertainty analysis" wg kryterium: Temat


Tytuł:
Measurement Uncertainty In Algorithms Using PCA Method
Autorzy:
Augustyn, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114502.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
PCA method
uncertainty analysis
measurement algorithm
Opis:
Propagation analysis of selected uncertainty sources in algorithms using the PCA method has been presented. The paper shows uncertainty analysis in algorithms, which use minimization of squared distances technique and maximizing the variance technique. On the basis of simulation tests the influence of the used signal sampling technique on the eigenvalues vector for the sinusoidal signal containing additive white noise, has been compared. Three applied sampling techniques have been analyzed: synchronization of the beginning of the data acquisition, for the successive sequences xi, immediately after a positive zero-level crossing of the analyzed waveform; separation of the NM-element sequence x to M of N-element sequences xi collected sequentially in subsequent rows of the matrix X; and application of sampling with the fractional delay of d=Ts/2, and X matrix construction from alternating strings: x2i-1 - sampled with a delay of d, and x2i - sampled with a zero delay from the moment of the zero crossing by analyzed waveform.
Źródło:
Measurement Automation Monitoring; 2015, 61, 11; 494-497
2450-2855
Pojawia się w:
Measurement Automation Monitoring
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Measurement of basic observation parameters of optoelectronic devices in an accredited laboratory. Measurement methodology, uncertainty analysis
Autorzy:
Bareła, Jarosław
Kastek, Mariusz
Firmanty, Krzysztof
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114246.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
optoelectronic metrology
measurements of parameters of IR cameras
uncertainty analysis
Opis:
The article describes the methodologies for measuring the basic parameters of optoelectronic observation devices in accordance with applicable standards and international procedures. Noise equivalent temperature difference NETD, minimum resolvable temperature difference MRTD, detection, recognition and identification ranges according to STANAG 4347, angular field of view FOV and modulation transfer function MTF are described. The description and requirements for laboratory measuring stations are presented. The article contains an analysis of measurement uncertainty of measured quantities in accordance with ISO 17025: 2018 and JCGM 100: 2008 guide based on the TOP 6-3-040 procedure.
Źródło:
Measurement Automation Monitoring; 2019, 65, 1; 2-6
2450-2855
Pojawia się w:
Measurement Automation Monitoring
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Metrological Analysis of Precision of the System of Delivering a Water Capsule for Explosive Production of Water Aerosol
Autorzy:
Śmigielski, G.
Toczek, W.
Dygdała, R.
Stefański, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/221553.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
water capsule airdrop control system
uncertainty analysis
GUM uncertainty framework
propagation of distributions
Opis:
In this paper precision of the system controlling delivery by a helicopter of a water capsule designed for extinguishing large scale fires is analysed. The analysis was performed using a numerical method of distribution propagation (the Monte Carlo method) supplemented with results of application of the uncertainty propagation method. In addition, the optimum conditions for the airdrop are determined to ensure achieving the maximum area covered by the water capsule with simultaneous preserving the precision level necessary for efficient fire extinguishing.
Źródło:
Metrology and Measurement Systems; 2016, 23, 1; 47-58
0860-8229
Pojawia się w:
Metrology and Measurement Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of uncertainty analysis in structural dynamics
Autorzy:
Martowicz, A.
Pieczonka, Ł.
Uhl, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/243305.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:
structural dynamics
uncertainty analysis
eigen problem
finite element method
genetic algorithms
Opis:
The paper deals with the application of uncertainty analysis in structural dynamics. The usage of soft computing method, namely Genetic Algorithms (GA), is presented to show effective computational technique that allows for assessing the propagation of defmed uncertainties in modelled mechanical structure. Tested method is capable of finding variation of eigenfrequencies of Finite Element models and is based on scanning of interval global system matrices. During this process combination of values of input design parameters are found for which extremes of frequencies of vibration appear. FE model of windscreen, made available by Renault Technocentre, has been anafysed. Assumed uncertainties have taken. into account variability of material properties, geometrical characteristics and environmental conditions. Fuzzy theory together with alpha-cut strategy has been applied for modelling uncertain parameters. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the contribution effect introduced by each assumed input parameter to studied frequency of vibration. Obtained results have been presented and discussed within the context of referential results yielded from Monte Carlo simulation and GA used directly for the search of frequency extremes. Finally, observed time savings have been mentioned to justify the usage of tested computational method.
Źródło:
Journal of KONES; 2008, 15, 1; 153-167
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:
Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Automatic defect detection and characterization by thermographic images based on damage classifiers evaluation
Autorzy:
Dinardo, Giuseppe
Fabbiano, Laura
Tamborrino, Rosanna
Vacca, Gaetano
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/221850.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
thermography
non-destructive testing
thermal barrier coatings
image segmentation
uncertainty analysis
Opis:
In the framework of non-destructive evaluation (NDE), an accurate and precise characterization of defects is fundamental. This paper proposes a novel method for characterization of partial detachment of thermal barrier coatings from metallic surfaces, using the long pulsed thermography (LPT). There exist many applications, in which the LPT technique provides clear and intelligible thermograms. The introduced method comprises a series of post-processing operations of the thermal images. The purpose is to improve the linear fit of the cooling stage of the surface under investigation in the logarithmic scale. To this end, additional fit parameters are introduced. Such parameters, defined as damage classifiers, are represented as image maps, allowing for a straightforward localization of the defects. The defect size information provided by each classifier is, then, obtained by means of an automatic segmentation of the images. The main advantages of the proposed technique are the automaticity (due to the image segmentation procedures) and relatively limited uncertainties in the estimation of the defect size.
Źródło:
Metrology and Measurement Systems; 2020, 27, 2; 219-242
0860-8229
Pojawia się w:
Metrology and Measurement Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainty analysis of the kinetic model of natural gas combustion in IC Engine
Autorzy:
Mansha, M.
Naqvi, J. H.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/778303.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane ZUT w Szczecinie
Tematy:
model kinetyczny
analiza niepewności
analiza błędów
zanieczyszczenia
kinetics model
uncertainty analysis
error analysis
pollutants
Opis:
The purpose of this analysis is to determine the uncertainties originating due to the kinetic parameters of the rate of a reaction proposed kinetic model. A kinetic model consisting of 208 reaction steps and 73 species was adopted for analysis. In the required uncertainty analysis, the accuracy of approximate models, generated by the Chemkin 4.1.1 for pollutant species, is determined. The reactions which contribute the uncertainty in the output concentrations of the pollutnats species formed in the combustion chamber were identifi ed. The percentage contribution to the uncertainty in the output concentrations of pollutants were also determined.
Źródło:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology; 2012, 14, 1; 1-4
1509-8117
1899-4741
Pojawia się w:
Polish Journal of Chemical Technology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Determination of transient fluid temperature using the inverse method
Autorzy:
Jaremkiewicz, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/240590.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
temperature measurement
transient conditions
uncertainty analysis
pomiar temperatury
warunki przejściowe
analiza niepewności
Opis:
This paper proposes an inverse method to obtain accurate measurements of the transient temperature of fluid. A method for unit step and linear rise of temperature is presented. For this purpose, the thermometer housing is modelled as a full cylindrical element (with no inner hole), divided into four control volumes. Using the control volume method, the heat balance equations can be written for each of the nodes for each of the control volumes. Thus, for a known temperature in the middle of the cylindrical element, the distribution of temperature in three nodes and heat flux at the outer surface were obtained. For a known value of the heat transfer coefficient the temperature of the fluid can be calculated using the boundary condition. Additionally, results of experimental research are presented. The research was carried out during the start-up of an experimental installation, which comprises: a steam generator unit, an installation for boiler feed water treatment, a tray-type deaerator, a blow down flashvessel for heat recovery, a steam pressure reduction station, a boiler control system and a steam header made of martensitic high alloy P91 steel. Based on temperature measurements made in the steam header using the inverse method, accurate measurements of the transient temperature of the steam were obtained. The results of the calculations are compared with the real temperature of the steam, which can be determined for a known pressure and enthalpy.
Źródło:
Archives of Thermodynamics; 2014, 35, 1; 61-76
1231-0956
2083-6023
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Thermodynamics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Metoda analizy niepewności oparta na połączeniu zasady maksymalnej entropii i metody oceny punktowej
Uncertainty analysis method based on a combination of the maximum entropy principle and the point estimation metod
Autorzy:
Zhang, X. L.
Huang, H. Z.
Wang, Z. L.
Xiao, N. C.
Li, Y. F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/301597.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
analiza niepewności
bootstrapping
momenty
zasada maksymalnej entropii
uncertainty analysis
moments
maximum entropy principle
Opis:
Niepewność jest nieodłącznym elementem procesów projektowania produktu. Dlatego też podejmowanie niezawodnych decyzji wymaga analizy niepewności, która uwzględniałaby wszystkie rodzaje niepewności. W praktyce inżynierskiej, z powodu niepełnej wiedzy, wyznaczenie rozkładu niektórych zmiennych projektowych nie jest możliwe. Co więcej, funkcja stanu granicznego jest wysoce nieliniowa, co sprawia, że do poprawnego obliczenia prawdopodobieństwa uszkodzenia potrzebna jest znajomość momentów wyższych rzędów tej funkcji. W niniejszej pracy zaproponowano metodę analizy niepewności łączącą zasadę maksymalnej entropii z metodą bootstrapową. W pierwszej części pracy wykorzystano metodę bootstrapową do obliczenia przedziałów ufności czterech pierwszych momentów dla zmiennych losowych typu mieszanego oraz zmiennych z próby. Następnie, wyznaczono momenty wyższych rzędów funkcji stanu granicznego przy użyciu metody redukcji wymiarów. Po trzecie, w celu obliczenia funkcji gęstości prawdopodobieństwa (PDF) oraz dystrybuanty (CDF) funkcji stanu granicznego, sformułowano model optymalizacji oparty na zasadzie maksymalnej entropii. Proponowana metoda nie wymaga założenia znajomości rozkładów zmiennych losowych ani obliczania wrażliwości dla funkcji stanu granicznego w odniesieniu do najbardziej prawdopodobnego punktu awarii. W końcowej części artykułu porównano na podstawie przykładów numerycznych wyniki otrzymane za pomocą proponowanej metody oraz symulacji Monte Carlo (MCS).
Uncertainty is inevitable in product design processes. Therefore, to make reliable decisions, uncertainty analysis incorporating all kinds of uncertainty is needed. In engineering practice, due to the incomplete knowledge, the distribution of some design variables can not be determined. Furthermore, the performance function is highly nonlinear, therefore, the high order moments of the performance function are needed to calculate the probability of failure accurately. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis method combining the maximum entropy principle and the bootstrapping method is proposed. Firstly, the bootstrapping method is used to calculate the confidence intervals of the first four moments for mixed random variables and sample variables. Secondly, the high order moments of limit state functions are estimated using the reduced dimension method. Thirdly, to calculate the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the limit state functions, an optimization model based on the maximum entropy principle is formulated. In the proposed method, the assumptions that the distribution of the random variables are known and the calculation of the sensitivity for limit state function with respect to the Most Probable Point (MPP) are avoided. Finally, comparisons of results from the proposed methods and the MCS method are presented and discussed with numerical examples.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2012, 14, 2; 114-119
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI)
Zastosowanie analizy niepewności opartej na symulacji Monte Carlo (MC) do inwentaryzacji cyklu życia (LCI)
Autorzy:
Sala, Dariusz
Bieda, Bogusław
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/319107.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Przeróbki Kopalin
Tematy:
Monte Carlo simulation
uncertainty analysis
life cycle inventory
symulacja Monte Carlo
analiza niepewności
inwentaryzacja cyklu życia
Opis:
The use of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation was presented in order to assess uncertainty in life cycle inventory (LCI) studies. The MC method is finded as an important tool in environmental science and can be considered the most effective quantification approach for uncertainties. Uncertainty of data can be expressed through a definition of probability distribution of that data (e.g. through standard deviation or variance). The presented case in this study is based on the example of the emission of SO2, generated during energy production in Integrated Steel Power Plant (ISPP) in Kraków, Poland. MC simulation using software Crystal Ball® (CB), software, associated with Microsoft® Excel, was used for the uncertainties analysis. The MC approach for assessing parameter uncertainty is described. Analysed parameter (SO2,) performed in MC simulation were assigned with log-normal distribution. Finally, the results obtained using MC simulation, after 10,000 runs, more reliable than the deterministic approach, is presented in form of the frequency charts and summary statistics. Thanks to uncertainty analysis, a final result is obtained in the form of value range. The results of this study will encourage other researchers to consider this approach in their projects, and the results of this study will encourage other LCA researchers to consider the uncertainty in their projects and bring closer to industrial application.
Źródło:
Inżynieria Mineralna; 2019, 21, 2/2; 264-269
1640-4920
Pojawia się w:
Inżynieria Mineralna
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Reduction of dynamic error in measurements of transient fluid temperature
Autorzy:
Jaremkiewicz, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/240052.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
analiza niepewności
model pierwszego obiektu
pomiar temperatury
stała czasowa
warunki przejściowe
first-order model
temperature measurement
time constant
transient conditions
uncertainty analysis
Opis:
Under steady-state conditions when fluid temperature is constant, temperature measurement can be accomplished with high degree of accuracy owing to the absence of damping and time lag. However, when fluid temperature varies rapidly, for example, during start-up, appreciable differences occur between the actual and measured fluid temperature. These differences occur because it takes time for heat to transfer through the heavy thermometer pocket to the thermocouple. In this paper, a method for determinig transient fluid temperature based on the first-order thermometer model is presented. Fluid temperature is determined using a thermometer, which is suddenly immersed into boiling water. Next, the time constant is defined as a function of fluid velocity for four sheated thermocouples with different diameters. To demonstrate the applicability of the presented method to actual data where air velocity varies, the temperature of air is estimated based on measurements carried out by three thermocouples with different outer diameters. Lastly, the time constant is presented as a function of fluid velocity and outer diameter of thermocouple.
Źródło:
Archives of Thermodynamics; 2011, 32, 4; 55-66
1231-0956
2083-6023
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Thermodynamics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainty analysis of operational conditions in selective artificial ground freezing applications
Autorzy:
Zueter, Ahmad
Akhtar, Saad
Sasmito, Agus
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2201410.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Główny Instytut Górnictwa
Tematy:
selective artificial ground freezing
Monte Carlo
pipes eccentricity
uncertainty analysis
reduced-order modelling
selektywne sztuczne zamarzanie gruntu
analiza niepewności
modelowanie zredukowanego rzędu
Opis:
Artificial ground freezing (AGF) systems are susceptible to uncertain parameters highly affecting their performance. Particularly, selective artificial ground freezing (S-AGF) systems involve several uncertain operational conditions. In this study, uncertainty analysis is conducted to investigate four operational parameters: 1) coolant inlet temperature, 2) coolant flow rate, 3) pipes emissivity, and 4) pipes eccentricity. A reduced-order model developed and validated in our previous work for field-scale applications is exploited to simulate a total of 5,000 cases. The uncertain operational parameters are set according to Monte Carlo analysis based on field observations of a field-scale freeze-pipe in the mining industry extending to 460 m below the ground surface. The results indicate that the freezing time can range between 270 and 350 days with an average of 310 days, whereas the cooling load per one freeze-pipe ranges from 90 to 160 MWh, with an average of 129 MWh. Furthermore, it is observed that the freezing time and energy consumed are mostly dominated by the coolant inlet temperature, while energy dissipated in the passive zone (where ground freezing is not needed) is mostly affected by pipes emissivity. Overall, the conclusions of this study provide useful estimations for engineers and practitioners in the AGF industry.
Źródło:
Journal of Sustainable Mining; 2022, 21, 3; 169--179
2300-1364
2300-3960
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Sustainable Mining
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prediction of mineral product price based on mean reversion model
Prognozowanie ceny produktu mineralnego w oparciu o model średniej rewersji
Autorzy:
Huang, Shuwei
Ma, Zhaoyang
Jin, Feng
Zhang, Yuansheng
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2173845.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN
Tematy:
mineral product price
mean reversion model
Monte Carlo simulation
uncertainty analysis
cena produktu mineralnego
model średniej rewersji
symulacja Monte Carlo
analiza niepewności
Opis:
The mean-reversion model is introduced into the study of mineral product price prediction. The gold price data from January 2018 to December 2021 are selected, and a mean-reverting stochastic process simulation of the gold price was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. By comparing the statistical results and trend curves of the mean-reversion (MR) model, geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, time series model and actual price, it is proved that the mean-reversion process is valid in describing the price fluctuation of mineral product. At the same time, by comparing with the traditional prediction methods, the mean-reversion model can quantitatively assess the uncertainty of the predicted price through a set of equal probability stochastic simulation results, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for the risk analysis of future economy.
W badaniach predykcji cen produktów mineralnych wprowadzono model średniej rewersji. Wybrano dane dotyczące cen złota od stycznia 2018 do grudnia 2021 r., a symulację ceny złota w procesie odwracania średniej przeprowadzono metodą symulacji Monte Carlo (MCS). Porównując wyniki statystyczne i krzywe trendu modelu średniej rewersji (MR), modelu geometrycznego ruchu Browna (GBM), modelu szeregów czasowych i rzeczywistej ceny, udowodniono, że proces średniej rewersji jest prawidłowy w opisie fluktuacji cen na produkt mineralny. Jednocześnie, porównując z tradycyjnymi metodami predykcji, model średniej rewersji może ilościowo oszacować niepewność przewidywanej ceny za pomocą zestawu wyników symulacji stochastycznej równego prawdopodobieństwa, w celu zapewnienia wsparcia danych i podstawy decyzyjnej do analizy ryzyka przyszłej gospodarki.
Źródło:
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi; 2022, 38, 2; 61--75
0860-0953
Pojawia się w:
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Autorzy:
Flage, R.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069562.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
quantitative risk analysis
QRA
uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
decision support
Opis:
A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 109--115
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainties on risk analysis : the consequence assessment in an hydrogen refuelling station
Autorzy:
Carpignano, A.
Ganci, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069552.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
uncertainty
risk analysis
hydrogen
consequence analysis
hydrogen refuelling station
Opis:
The paper concerns the problem of uncertainty associated to risk analysis of complex technological systems; this problem is not easy to resolve and manage. This is because such uncertainty has never been simple to quantify and, despite several innovative techniques able to properly manage uncertainties are available, none of these methodologies is integrated on the risk analysis in order to evaluate the error propagation. Also the itself risk analysis is not a precisely defined procedure but rather a complicated process of several parts and, moreover, each part is characterized by its own uncertainty. Several studies highlighted as the phases which mainly contribute to the overall uncertainty of a risk analysis are consequence and vulnerability studies. In order to provide a signifying approach to the problem, the working team has decided to focus their attention on a very important target for population safety: the hydrogen refuelling station for automotive.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 93--100
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A new visualizing tool for communicating cost-effectiveness of safety measures
Autorzy:
Bjorheim, A. E.
Terje, A.
Willy, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069703.pdf
Data publikacji:
2009
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
cost-effectiveness analysis
CEA
safety measures
uncertainty
Opis:
A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is often used as basis for comparisons between competing safety measures. In a CEA indices such as the expected cost per expected number of lives saved are calculated. These indices are presented to the decision-makers, and seen in relation to reference values, they form the basis for assessment of the effectiveness of the safety measures. The appropriateness of using cost-effectiveness indices based on expected values have been thoroughly discussed in the literature. It is argued that uncertainty is not properly taken into account by the CEA, and extended frameworks for CEA are required. This paper represents a contribution to this end, by presenting a diagram that visualizes uncertainty in addition to the expected values as in the traditional CEA. The diagram is meant to be a presentation tool for semi-quantitative cost-effectiveness analyses used as a part of a screening process to identify safety measures to be assessed in a more detailed analysis. In the paper we discuss the use of the diagram in communication between analysts and other stakeholders, in particular the decision-makers. An example is presented to illustrate the applicability of the tool.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 1; 9--14
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł

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