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    Tytuł:
    The Role of Trust in Political Corruption: Outline of the Subject
    Autorzy:
    Turska-Kawa, Agnieszka
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/514771.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2015
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Śląski. Wydział Nauk Społecznych
    Tematy:
    political corruption
    political trust
    political behaviors
    Opis:
    The article is an attempt to analyze the relations between political trust and one of the greatest problems of the public domain: political corruption. It seems obvious that corrupt behaviors revealed in the public space are supposed to undermine citizens’ political trust. This thesis has been empirically verified many times. The author of the paper presents the cause and effect model with institutional trust as the independent variable. The article is an attempt to analyze the possible directions of its influence on political corrupt behaviors, assuming political trust to be the starting point, not the consequence, of the “social disease” occurring in the public domain.
    Źródło:
    Political Preferences; 2015, 11; 61-75
    2449-9064
    Pojawia się w:
    Political Preferences
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    “Ethnic” Corruption When Ethnic Identity Meets Political Corruption
    Autorzy:
    Šumah, Štefan
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/38453158.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2024-07-11
    Wydawca:
    Academicus. International Scientific Journal publishing house
    Tematy:
    ethnic identity
    corruption
    political corruption
    ethnic corruption
    Opis:
    Corruption is a complex phenomenon which can appear in various forms and political corruption remains one of the most common forms. Political corruption further encompasses many forms, one of which is ethnic corruption. Ethnic corruption is one of form of corruption that involves giving certain ethnic groups privileges that other groups do not have. The purpose of these privileges is for the ruling political structure to stay in power. This type of corruption was common practice in the former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union, and continues in its successor, the Russian Federation.. Pronounced ethnic corruption remains prevalent in many countries across Asia and Africa. With an increasingly polarized voting base in the United States, new forms of ethnic corruption have started to appear. Because of its characteristics, ethnic corruption is one of the most challenging types of corruption to address. Keyword: ethnic identity; corruption; political corruption; ethnic corruption Corruption is a complex political phenomenon, whose framework oeftn consists of several interconnected elements. These include, but are not limited to (Šumah, 2024): - the work and tasks performed by politicians, - the transparency of their actions, - the powers granted to politicians, 1 - the responsibilities and morals of individuals in exposed positions, 2 - public control, including public opinion, and - the technical monopoly over decision-making that politicians hold due to the nature of their work.
    Źródło:
    Academicus International Scientific Journal; 2024, 15, 30; 70-77
    2079-3715
    2309-1088
    Pojawia się w:
    Academicus International Scientific Journal
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    How Media Constructs Political Corruption: Case of the Internet Media Reaction to the Political Corruption Scandal during Election Campaign to the Parliament of Lithuania in 2016
    Autorzy:
    Matkevičienė, Renata
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/514548.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Śląski. Wydział Nauk Społecznych
    Tematy:
    corruption
    political corruption
    bribery
    corruption scandal
    media
    elections
    Opis:
    Corruption is not just a problem of developing countries, corruption scandals arise and develop also in Western democracies, what differ are the perception and assessment of corruption. As scientists state, corruption is a phenomenon that is determined by the country's democratic (state) traditions and culture, dominant values and behaviour standards, etc. Most of the time corruption is analysed in the context of political, business, health care and media systems that are interrelated. By far, talking about the understanding and reaction to corruption in politics, are based on public perception of corruption. Corruption in political arena is related not only to actions of politicians, or public officers, but depends on the understanding and its tolerance in society. The cases of political corruption are rare, but they still happen, and it does not matter whether it is a developing county, a newly established democracy, or a so called western democracy. The phenomenon of political corruption is based on political culture, or even more broadly speaking, on national culture, traditions. And because of that cases of political corruption and their evaluation and reaction to them of the participants of political system (political actors, media and citizens) in general demonstrates the level of tolerance of such actions. Results of political election campaign can be considered as the mirror of perception of political corruption in political system, because they demonstrate the activities of all participants of political system and their attitude toward the case. This article aims to analyze the concept of political corruption in order to identify its main determinants and to investigate the potential influence of the case of corruption of political actor on the outcome of the political elections. In this paper the quantitative media content analysis is presented to show the coverage of the political party in relation to political election campaign during the political election period and political corruption event. It is done in search for the factors that determine the presentation and possible impact of political corruption event on the results of political elections. In the research the media content of the political actor, that was accused of corruptive activities (bribery) was analysed. The article also discusses whether the political corruption of political party leader and its presentation in the media may affect the political election results.
    Źródło:
    Political Preferences; 2017, 14; 35-46
    2449-9064
    Pojawia się w:
    Political Preferences
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Impacts of Political Corruption on Democratic Consolidation and the Electoral Process in Nigeria
    Autorzy:
    Ebegbulem, Joseph C.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1038087.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Academicus. International Scientific Journal publishing house
    Tematy:
    political corruption
    democratic consolidation
    godfatherism
    ethnicism
    democracy
    Opis:
    Since 1999, Nigeria has witnessed an uninterrupted democratic experiment with many challenges. With the installation of multi-party democracy in Nigeria, the era of military authoritarian regimes were over as Nigerians were looking forward to a free society characterized by social justice, economic growth and free, fair and credible electoral process. But today, democracy sits on the horn of a dilemma in Nigeria due to massive political corruption by the leaders. Free and fair election which is one of the features of true democracy has eluded Nigeria since the advent of the country’s nascent democratic dispensation. The behavior of the political leaders has cast doubt on any consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. This paper gives a comprehensive definition of political corruption and democratic consolidation, and highlights the nature of political corruption in Nigeria. The paper also examines the impact of corruption on the consolidation of democracy under the prevailing socio-economic challenges in Nigeria. Finally, the paper concludes with the advice that for there to be democratic consolidation, there must be massive investment in the provision of the basic needs of the Nigerian people.
    Źródło:
    Academicus International Scientific Journal; 2020, 21; 38-45
    2079-3715
    2309-1088
    Pojawia się w:
    Academicus International Scientific Journal
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Nigeria: A Few Words about Political Corruption, the Presence of Boko Haram, and the Growing Power of Fulani Extremists
    Nigeria – kilka słów o korupcji politycznej, obecności Boko Haram i rosnącej sile ekstremistów Fulani
    Autorzy:
    Kotasińska, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1878507.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020-12-31
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika w Toruniu. Wydawnictwo UMK
    Tematy:
    Nigeria
    political corruption
    terrorism
    Boko Haram
    Fulani extremists
    korupcja polityczna
    terroryzm
    ekstremiści
    Fulani
    Opis:
    Nigeria is a country associated with oil wealth, ubiquitous corruption and Boko Haram’s terrorist activities. All this means that despite having the necessary resources and the theoretical capacity for economic development, being one of the wealthiest countries in Africa does not lead to its flourishing. What is more, 2018 showed that another problem is gaining strength, namely the functioning of the Fulani extremists, through whom the number of deaths from attacks in Nigeria is steadily increasing. Will the corrupt Nigerian authorities be able to counter the new wave of terror in the country effectively?
    Nigeria to państwo kojarzone z zasobami ropy naftowej, wszechobecną korupcją oraz działalnością terrorystyczną ugrupowania Boko Haram. Wszystko to oznacza, że pomimo posiadania niezbędnych zasobów i teoretycznej zdolności rozwoju gospodarczego bycie jednym z najbardziej zamożnych państw Afryki nie prowadzi do jego rozkwitu. Co więcej 2018 rok pokazał, że na sile zyskuje kolejny z problemów, jakim jest działalność ekstremistów Fulani, za sprawą których w Nigerii stale rośnie liczba zgonów spowodowanych ich atakami. Czy skorumpowane władze nigeryjskie będą w stanie skutecznie przeciwdziałać nowej fali terroru w państwie?
    Źródło:
    Historia i Polityka; 2020, 34 (41); 61-73
    1899-5160
    2391-7652
    Pojawia się w:
    Historia i Polityka
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Klientelizm w procesie wyborczym jako wyraz korupcji politycznej (przykład Ukrainy)
    Autorzy:
    Yuriychuk, Yevheniya
    Antoniuk, Dmytro
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2053919.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
    Tematy:
    political corruption
    clienteleism
    electoral clienteleism
    bribe of voters
    korupcja polityczna
    klientelizm
    klientelizm wyborczy
    przekupstwo wyborców
    политическая коррупция
    клиентелизм
    электоральный клиентелизм
    подкуп избирателей
    Opis:
    Authors consider political corruption and clientelism in the electoral process as destructive phenomena that violate the normal principle of society and artificially create obstacles within the political system. The understanding of clientelism by different authors as a component of political corruption, the conditions of its existence, as well as the consequences and influence on political powerare analysed. Basing on the achievements of foreign scientists, the content and the essence of the concept of “electoral clientelism” is determined, the main reasons and preconditions of this phenomenon emergence are found, the authors’ own definition, summarizing the known scientific approaches, is offered. The devastating impact of clientelism on the electoral process that results in violating the principle of competition between political forces, and further leads to the development of corruption in the power system, is elucidated. Varieties of electoral clientelism in accordance with the tasks set by corrupt subjects of the electoral process in order to gain an advantage over opponents during the voting are found out. Apart from the approach, where electoral clientelism provides material benefits to voters, an approach, where the voters are constantly informed of the clientele character data, basing on which the unfair politicians create a mobilization campaign, is considered. The authors showed their ownvision of the connection between electoral clientelism and political corruption manifested in the occupation of political positions by ineffective candidates and further use of their powers for private purposes, which will threaten the long-term prospects of social development. A number of ways to regulateclientelism’s impact on the electoral process, in particular through electronic voting introduction, established compulsory voting, agitation campaign financing control, severe penalties for clientele activity etc., are traced.
    Autorzy rozpatrują korupcję polityczną i klientelizm w procesie wyborczym jako zjawiska destrukcyjne, naruszające zasady życia społeczeństwa i tworzące sztuczne przeszkody w ramach systemu politycznego. W artykule przeanalizowano pojęcie „klientelizmu” jako składnika korupcji politycznej, warunki jego istnienia, a także konsekwencje wywierania wpływu na władzę polityczną. W oparciu o dorobek zagranicznych naukowców określono treść i istotę pojęcia „klientelizmu wyborczego”, wyjaśniono główne powody i warunki wstępne do pojawienia się tego zjawiska oraz zaproponowano własną autorską definicję jako podsumowanie analizy dobrze znanych podejść naukowców.Podkreślono destrukcyjny wpływ klientelizmu na proces wyborczy, w wyniku którego naruszono zasadę konkurencji między siłami politycznymi, co dodatkowo prowadzi do rozwoju korupcji w systemie władzy. Rodzaje klientelizmu wyborczego określono zgodnie z zadaniami stawianymi przez skorumpowanepodmioty procesu wyborczego w celu uzyskania przewagi nad przeciwnikami podczas głosowania. Oprócz podejścia, w którym klientelizm wyborczy przewiduje dostarczanie wyborcom korzyści materialnych, analizie poddano również podejście, w którym decydującą rolę odgrywa przekazywaniewyborcom informacji o charakterze klientelistycznym, w związku z czym nieskrupulatni politycy budują kampanie mobilizacyjne. Podkreślona została autorska wizja związku klientelizmu wyborczego z korupcją polityczną, która przejawia się w zajmowaniu stanowisk politycznych przez nieefektywnych kandydatów z dalszym wykorzystywaniem tych stanowisk do celów prywatnych, co zagraża długoterminowym perspektywom rozwoju społecznego. Zidentyfikowano wiele sposobów regulowania wpływu klientelizmu na proces wyborczy, w szczególności przez wprowadzenie głosowania elektronicznego, a także przymusowego głosowania, kontrolę nad finansowaniem kampanii oraz surowe sankcje za udział w relacjach klientelistycznych itp.
    Авторы рассматривают политическую коррупцию и клиентелизм в избирательном процессе как деструктивные явления, нарушающие нормальный принцип жизнедеятельности общества и создающие искусственные препятствия внутри политической системы. Проанализированы понимания клиентелизма различными авторами как составляющей политической коррупции, условия его существования, а также последствия влияния на политическую власть. Опираясь на наработки зарубежных ученых, определено содержание и суть понятия «электоральный клиентелизм», выяснены основные причины и предпосылки возникновения этого феномена, предложено собственное авторское определение, которое обобщает известные подходы ученых. Освещено разрушительное воздействие клиентелизма на избирательный процесс, в результате которого нарушается принцип конкуренции между политическими силами, что в дальнейшем приводит к развитию коррупции в системе власти. Определены виды электорального клиентелизма в соответствии с задачами, которые перед собой ставят коррумпированные субъекты избирательного процесса для получения преимущества над оппонентами во время голосования. Кроме подхода, где электоральный клиентелизм предусматривает предоставление материальной выгоды избирателям, рассмотрен подход, при котором решающую роль играет трансляция избирателям информации клиентелистского характера, на основе которой недобросовестные политики строят мобилизационные кампании. Освещено авторское видение связи электорального клиентелизма с политической коррупцией, которая проявляется в занятии политических должностей неэффективными кандидатами с последующим использованием ими своих полномочий в личных целях, что грозит долгосрочным перспективам общественного развития. Определен ряд путей урегулирования влияния клиентелизма на избирательный процесс, в частности путем внедрения электронного голосования, установленияобязательного голосования, контроля за финансированием агитационной кампании и внедрения строгих санкций за участие в клиентелистских отношениях и т. п.
    Źródło:
    Wschód Europy. Studia humanistyczno-społeczne; 2021, 7, 1; 101-118
    2450-4866
    Pojawia się w:
    Wschód Europy. Studia humanistyczno-społeczne
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    El desarrollo del narcotráfico y la corrupción en México
    Autorzy:
    Nieto, Nubia
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/682971.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
    Tematy:
    corruption, drug trafficking, political elites, Mexico, democracy.
    corrupción, narcotráfico, élites políticas, México, democracia
    Opis:
    In recent decades, Mexico has hit the news headlines due to the high levels of violence, brutality and drug trafficking. Moreover, the links between political power, intelligence agencies, corruption and organised crime have been undeniable in the development of narcotrafficking and violence in Mexico. In this scenario, the following questions are emerging and are intended to be analyzed throughout this text: Why have drug traffickers managed to destabilize the Mexican government? How much responsibilities have the U.S. and Mexican intelligence agencies in the development of drug trafficking and violence? Can Mexico by itself control the development of drug trafficking? Is it possible to establish the rule of law and accountability mechanisms? Does the new government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador represent hope for the control of violence in Mexico?
    En las últimas décadas, México ha encabezado los titulares en la prensa debido a los altos niveles de violencia, brutalidad y tráfico de drogas. Además, pocas veces se cuestionan los vínculos entre poder político, agencias de inteligencia, corrupción y crimen organizado en el desarrollo del narcotráfico y violencia en México. En este escenario, emergen las siguientes preguntas, las cuales se intentan analizar a lo largo del texto: ¿Por qué los narcotraficantes han logrado desestabilizar al gobierno mexicano? ¿Cuánta responsabilidad tienen las agencias de inteligencia de los Estados Unidos y México en el desarrollo del narcotráfico y la violencia? ¿Puede México controlar por sí mismo el desarrollo del tráfico de drogas? ¿Es posible establecer el Estado de derecho y los mecanismos de rendición de cuentas? ¿Representa el nuevo gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador una esperanza para el control de la violencia en México?
    Źródło:
    Anuario Latinoamericano – Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales; 2018, 6
    2449-8483
    2392-0343
    Pojawia się w:
    Anuario Latinoamericano – Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Towards a proverbial explanation of political instability in independent Nigeria
    Autorzy:
    Aremu, Johnson Olaosebikan
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1182946.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
    Tematy:
    political instability
    proverbs
    corruption
    nigeria
    ethnicity
    Opis:
    The challenge of political instability in Nigeria has defied all solutions till date. The National Youth Service Scheme introduced in 1973 and the Federal Character principle entrenched in the Constitution since 1979, among others, have failed to engender peace and stability in the polity. Judging from this, this paper offers a possible explanation for the seeming failure of all efforts to combat the monster of political instability in Nigeria since independence. Given the fact that most Nigerian leaders and commoners alike are always quick in reverting to some proverbs to rationalize their actions or inactions; five of the most widely acclaimed causes of political instability in Nigeria were examined vis-à-vis some selected Yoruba proverbs. This was done against the backdrop of a Yoruba proverb: Owe lesin oro, oro lesin owe; b’oro ba sonu, owe la fi n waa. (“A proverb is like a horse: when the truth is missing, we use a proverb to find it”). A thorough analysis reveals that political instability in Nigeria has its philosophical foundations well entrenched in the spirit of selected Nigerian proverbs and concludes that political stability may continue to elude the country as long as citizens indulge in hiding under the cover of the letters and spirit of selected Nigerian proverbs to perpetrate evil in governance.
    Źródło:
    World Scientific News; 2016, 49, 2; 307-320
    2392-2192
    Pojawia się w:
    World Scientific News
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Electoral Corruption in the Reality of Unconsolidated Democracy
    Autorzy:
    Bil, Jacek
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1836647.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Wyższa Szkoła Bezpieczeństwa Publicznego i Indywidualnego Apeiron w Krakowie
    Tematy:
    corruption
    elections
    crime
    politics
    political parties
    Opis:
    The article is devoted to the problem of corruption in politics. The author presents the risks of corruption for the democratic system of the state and describes the anticorruption legal regulations. Mechanisms of electoral corruption are presented and the involvement of the state and political parties in the anti-corruption programs is showed. It shows the necessity of anti-corruption education of society.
    Źródło:
    Security Dimensions; 2016, 20(20); 81-94
    2353-7000
    Pojawia się w:
    Security Dimensions
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Populist Dimension of Mediated Discourses About Corruption in Romania
    Autorzy:
    Balaban, Delia Cristina
    Stoica, Mihnea S.
    Vincze, Orsolya Hanna
    Medveschi, Iulia
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2042931.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021-12-28
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Komunikacji Społecznej
    Tematy:
    corruption
    populist political communication
    Romania
    content analysis
    Facebook
    Opis:
    Understanding populism as a communication strategy (Aalberg et al. 2017) that is based on both messages and styles (Engesser et. al., 2017), the present research investigates the populist elements of political discourses articulating the subject of “corruption” in the context of the attempts to change the anti-corruption legislation by the Romanian government in 2017–2018. Based on audience preferences and on the density of political communication conducted by both political and media actors, the study conducted content analysis articles from three major Romanian TV-related news portals during February 2017 and May 1 – June 5, 2018 (N=548). In addition, computer-assisted content analysis was performed on social media posts of political parties (N=875) and the posts of their leaders (N=540). The research not only identified elements of populist political communication both in the content and the style of corruption-discourses but also reflected the polarization of the Romanian media system.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Communication; 2021, 14, 2(29); 287-304
    1899-5101
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Communication
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Barriers and Obstacles in the Process of Awarding and Implementation of EU Funds in Poland. Systemic Analysis
    Autorzy:
    Gadowska, Kaja
    Bukowski, Andrzej
    Polak, Paulina
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1929517.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2008-12-30
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Socjologiczne
    Tematy:
    European integration
    EUfunds
    systems theory
    Niklas Luhmann
    administration
    bureaucracy
    political system
    politicization
    corruption
    Opis:
    The article deals with the issue of structural and cohesion funding by the European Union in Poland. Although all funds for the first programming period 2004–6 were allocated, the process did not occur without problems. Therefore, in our paper we point to the weaknesses of the system and some of the crucial barriers that hindered efficient fund allocation: faulty institutional and legal framework, bureaucracy, corruption and personnel deficits. We base our findings on research of interviews carried out in four regions of Poland. Referring to Niklas Luhmann’s theory of autopoietic system, we sketch an image of an unevenly differentiated political system, in which administration and politics prevail over the underdeveloped and weak public, incapable of counteracting trends of politicization and expanded bureaucracy. By showing evolution and reproduction of the system, we relate to its deficits and their importance to future use of the flow of EU funds.
    Źródło:
    Polish Sociological Review; 2008, 164, 4; 437-470
    1231-1413
    2657-4276
    Pojawia się w:
    Polish Sociological Review
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Ukraine Through the Prism of Geopolitical Challenges: Analytical Aspect
    Autorzy:
    Teleshun, Sergiy
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/531285.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016-03-15
    Wydawca:
    Fundacja Instytut Nauki o Polityce
    Tematy:
    global trends
    public policy
    Ukrainian crisis
    thinktanks,
    corruption
    gray area
    financial and political pressure groups
    conflict in Eastern Ukraine
    Opis:
    This paper examines the global trends that will be reflected in global politics. Systematization of a large number of sources of major research centers allowed forming a hierarchy of challenges and threats able to influence global and regional policy. Special attention is given to Ukraine, events which significantly influence the Eurasian and global political space. The article gives an insight of the political processes in Ukraine, its problems and achievements. Understanding the situation in Ukraine in the light of global trends allows us to realize the impact on geopolitical balance of power in the world. Events in Ukraine, as in Syria, became the catalyst for change that led to reformatting of political and regional map of the world. Significant pressure from new social, political, economic, military, informational and humanitarian threats and challenges was put upon security and bureaucratic structures of the European Union, NATO, UN and others. The obvious is that the global security system based on the principles of collective responsibility of the twentieth century is affected by a considerable transformation. This, in turn, has put on the agenda the issue of the capacity of modern political and business elites and the management establishment responds adequately to new manifestations of systemic crises and threats. The efficiency of the management of public authority institutions in internal and external policy is not only to improve the analytical tools to identify key social issues, but also the ability to form the institutional and civil mechanisms of preventive counteract against the disintegration of the political and economic environment of the state. But traditionally forecasts are significantly correlated with the realities of life and professional and volitional qualities of consumers of intellectual products in the field of management. Currently, a large number of analytical studies, prognostic versions of the future, futurological predictions from authoritative think-tanks perform not just their main prognostic function - an objective reflection of patterns of global and regional processes, but in most cases a multi-purpose product of political influence. Political analytics in public policy is a tool of public opinion formation (an artificial change of public attitudes, priorities, perceptions, expectations etc.) and implementation of some projections of the future or for world politics the most likely and expected models of situations development in high-risk areas. Analytical forecasts are often (have become) not only a means of pseudo scientific impact on society, with wide manipulative tools, using misinformation, “gray” technologies of the hidden influence on the individual and groups of individuals, hybrid types of information influence etc., but also behavioral models of national policy key actors. This is primarily due to political preconception and relations with different centers of force, wellknown expert-analytical agencies. Accordingly, analytical findings of many of them are entirely synthetic and designed in order to model, correlate and correct agenda and project the necessary previously ordered future efficiently. In early 2016 the global analytical and expert community, the leading "think tanks" began to provide us with own predictive versions of events development in the world both at global and regional levels. In many ways, the most influential models of the future differ from each other, and therefore need to build a more coherent and systematic view of the likely scenarios for the future. In addition, it is significant to emphasize that the complexity of forecasting and analytical activity caused by the intensity, dynamic processes and increase of the number of input data exponentially in the current development of the world. The justification of this is a methodological weakness of well-known world think-tanks in the matters of development of even shortterm forecasts on Syria, Ukraine migration processes, European Union, Mediterranean etc. This led to a serious debate in analytic community in the US and Western Europe on the revision of established strategies of information-analytical and expert activities. In particular, the results of the scenarios made by the most "think tanks" in the past year, according to our estimate, have come true with the coincidence of 40 per cent. Especially they reveal not always accurate forecasts regarding the situation deployment around the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine under the so-called "Minsk format", the resolution of the conflict in Syria under the so-called "Geneva format", critical and final phase of destabilization and destruction of the Russian Federation, significant decline in economic development and social explosions in the People's Republic of China, the stabilization of situation in the "Arab spring" zone, efficacy of international mechanisms and institutions in addressing global challenges (especially in the matters of war and peace) etc.
    Źródło:
    Polish Journal of Political Science; 2016, 2, 1; 6-18
    2391-3991
    Pojawia się w:
    Polish Journal of Political Science
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-12 z 12

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