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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 53
Tytuł:
A systematic literature review on business cycle approaches: Measurement, nature, duration
Autorzy:
Pu, Zhongmin
Fan, Xuecheng
Xu, Zeshui
Skare, Marinko
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19908376.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
business cycle
business cycle approach
business cycle model
business cycle measurement
literature review
Opis:
Research background: The business cycle (BC) approaches have found extensive use in economic analysis and forecasting. Especially in the last 40 years, various modern BC models have been proposed and have experienced rapid development. However, there are no recent studies that provide a systematic review of the publications on this topic. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to comprehensively review publications of BC approaches based on the cause, nature and methods of measurement BC, with the goal of identifying the current research states, research gaps and future trends of BC approaches. Methods: A systematic literature review of BC approaches is conducted by qualitatively introducing the cause and the nature of BCs and quantitatively analyzing the methods of measurement BCs.  We selected 206 articles related to BC approaches from the WoS Core Collection and Google Scholar database, spanning the years 1946 to 2022, for comprehensive statistical and content analysis. The statistical analysis presents the distribution of publication years, the most popular journals and the highly cited publications. The content analysis classifies the selected publications into 6 categories based on methods of measurement BCs, and the theory, technique and applications of each category are analyzed in detail. Findings & value added: The analysis results indicate that BC approaches have progressively evolved in sophistication and have found widespread application in decomposing trends within economic time series, quantifying the nature of business cycles, and elucidating the causes and transmission mechanisms underlying them. This review paper provides current states, research challenges and future directions in effectively employing BC approaches for empirical study.
Źródło:
Oeconomia Copernicana; 2023, 14, 3; 935-976
2083-1277
Pojawia się w:
Oeconomia Copernicana
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Cyclical or countercyclical nature of prices and wages in the euro area
Autorzy:
Misztal, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522364.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Business cycle
Prices
Wages
Opis:
Aim/purpose –The aim of the undertaken research is to analyse the interdependencies between cyclical changes in consumer prices, production prices, wages and production in the euro area in the period Q1.2010-Q3.2017. Methodology –A literature review in the field ofmacroeconomics and international finance and statistical and econometric methods were used in this study.Findings –The hypothesis that prices on the market follow the changes in the business cycle is a central aspect in research on business cycles. The results of the conducted research suggest no occurrence of the cyclical phenomenon of consumer prices, producer prices and wages in the examined period of time. Research implications–The findings of the research are extremely important especial-ly from the European Central Bank monetary policy point of view. The lack of cyclical changes in inflation, production prices and wages can lead to asymmetric monetary policy reaction to fluctuations in economic activity.Originality –To date, no comprehensive research has been conducted into the phenomenon of price and wage cyclicality in the euro area. Therefore, this research fills the existing gap in this area, constituting a significant contribution to empirical research in the field of price cyclicality.
Źródło:
Journal of Economics and Management; 2020, 41; 25-46
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Impact of Business Cycles on the Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Poland
Autorzy:
Warżała, Rafał
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517138.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
foreign direct investment
business cycle
Opis:
The core of this article is to study the impact of the last world economic crisis and world foreign direct investment fluctuations in the same period. The empirical study was based on data published by UNCTAD in annual reports, called World Investment Report. The research concerning the Polish economy was based on data of Polish National Bank. For measuring the relation between studied phenomena, the analysis of correlation was used, as well as the structure rate and the rate of growth. For the evolution of GDP fluctuations in Poland in the years 1990-2012, both the method of statistical analysis and the descriptive method were used. In the latest World Investment Report (WIR 2012) one can find the current world financial crisis involved in the drop of foreign direct investment flows. That was characteristic for the Polish economy, too. The main reasons for that are the descending investment capability of corporations, because of poorer profits level and higher costs of bank credits. The important argument for corporation investment slump is that the prospects of world economic growth are unfavourable.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2014, 9, 2; 25-39
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
ARE THERE TWO TYPES OF BUSINESS CYCLES? A NOTE ON CRISIS DETECTION
Autorzy:
Pater, Robert
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/599483.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania z siedzibą w Rzeszowie
Tematy:
business cycle
growth cycle
classical cycle
unobserved components
Opis:
Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to contemporary business cycle analysis the theories of growth cycles and classical cycles. The non-homogeneity of business cycles is surveyed in theory and practice with use of ad hoc filtering, spectral analysis and unobserved components models. With their use business cycles are extracted. Several macroeconomic indicators for 32 economies are analysed to draw up additional characteristics of contemporary business cycles. The author proposes that fluctuations in economic activity lasting 8-19 quarters should be called ‘growth cycles’ and those lasting 20-40 quarters – ‘classical cycles’. The value added of this article is the consideration of the two different type of cycles in light of the same methods of extraction, while to date they have been thought of as the ones that can be analysed with use of different methods of extraction. Another innovation is comparison of the cyclicality of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of the two types of cycles, while to date they have been analysed in the light of a single business cycle. In the article it is shown that dividing business cycles into such defined classical cycles and growth cycles enables us to understand the differences between the cyclicality of various macroeconomic aggregates and countries. It also enables us to distinguish between smaller downturns and severe recessions. Another conclusion is that the duration of contemporary business cycles around the world closes in a range of 2 to 10 years.
Źródło:
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse; 2014, 10, 3; 11-28
1734-039X
Pojawia się w:
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Do institutional and political factors matter for the efficiency of banking sectors?
Autorzy:
Olszak, Małgorzata Anna
Chodnicka, Patrycja
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2054545.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014-05-19
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
banking sector
efficiency
business cycle
risk
Opis:
This paper investigates the relevance of banking- sector- specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability of 21 banking sectors over the years 1995-2009. In the analysis we apply the Arellano and Bond GMM-estimator to aggregated data collected in a harmonized way by the OECD, to find out whether banking-sector-specific and macroeconomic determinants which significantly affect the efficiency of individual banks, are also of great importance to the profitability (proxied by ROA and ROE ratios) of banking sectors. Our results suggest that banking-sector-specific determinants affect the efficiency of banks in the anticipated way. Macroeconomic variables have a statistically-significant impact on both ROA and ROE. The sensitivity of efficiency to both groups of determinants depends on institutional and political criteria.
Źródło:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics; 2014, 1(1); 40-58
2353-6845
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Specialization and business cycles fluctuations of Polish regions
Autorzy:
Warżała, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108332.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
region
business cycle
specialization
economic structure
Opis:
The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between the cyclical fluctuations in Poland on a regional perspective and the level of specialization of regional economies. To do this, the correlation between the morphology features of regional business cycles and the level of their specialization was made. The morphology features were represented by such parameters: cycle length, phase length, standard deviation ratio, coefficient of variation ratio and average amplitude of upward and downward phases. The evolution of economic structures was measured by the Krugman specialization index. Assessing the GDP cyclical fluctuations in the Polish regions during 1996–2013, it can be concluded that the regions have different sensitivity to economy “shocks,” both positive and negative. The results of the regional specialization measuring are ambiguous. Most of them appear falling specialization, and the others show stable specialization levels. Despite a few exceptions, a correlation between the level of regional specialization and the degree of sensitivity to economic disturbances can be observed. Regions that are less specialized and have more-diversified production structures show greater resistance to economic fluctuations. This is confirmed by the analysis of the morphology of cycles on a regional basis.
Źródło:
Managerial Economics; 2015, 16, 2; 175-188
1898-1143
Pojawia się w:
Managerial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The UK business cycle and the structure of the economy
Autorzy:
Pater, Robert
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500330.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
business cycle
economy structure
sectoral cycle
sectoral comovement
Opis:
It is widely known that various sectors of an economy may react differently to the business cycle, and, on the other hand, it may be affected by sector specific shocks. Not much light has been shed so far on the impact of the business cycle on the structure of an economy, and vice versa. This study models and empirically tests the relationship, using data on the United Kingdom economy, 1963Q1-2011Q4. The structure of the economy is analyzed taking into account gross value added and employment in NACE Rev1.1 sections (6-branch division). Gross value added is additionally analyzed from the expenditure point of view. The unobserved component model and SVAR/SVEC models are used. The business cycle is found to influence and be influenced by the structure of the economy. Some effects may persist longer than one cycle, affecting the long-run path of the economy.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty; 67-93
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Stylised Facts about Cyclical Fluctuations of Business Survey Data
Autorzy:
Adamowicz, Elżbieta
Walczyk, Konrad
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500658.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013-09-01
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
business cycles
qualitative business cycle indicators
leading indicators
Opis:
The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of business activity in selected sectors of the Polish economy, with the use of business confidence indicators. We analyse main morphological features of the cyclical fluctuations: phase duration, timing of turning points, amplitudes, intensity and leads/lags of qualitative indicators in reference to GDP, and cross correlations. Four sectors of the economy are analysed: manufacturing, construction, motor transport and retail trade. We make an insight into empirical regularities of cyclical fluctuations, known as stylised facts. We particularly aim to examine the following stylised facts about business cycles in Poland, ie (1) whether manufacturing contributes the highest to a business cycle, (2) construction and transport are leading sectors of the economy, and (3) retail sales stabilise general business activity.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2013, 93: Expectations and Forecasting; 123-142
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
DETERMINANTS OF LEVERAGE AND LIQUIDITY AND BANK SIZE – CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY
Autorzy:
Olszak, Małgorzata
Kowalska, Iwona
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/485461.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Bankowy Fundusz Gwarancyjny
Tematy:
leverage
liquidity
funding risk
business cycle
bank size
Opis:
This paper aims to identify the role of bank size for the sensitivity of leverage and liquidity funding risk to their determinants (both bank-specific and macroeconomic). Applying the two-step robust GMM estimator to individual bank data from over 60 countries covering the period 2000–2011 our study shows that increases in previous period funding liquidity risk are associated with increases in leverage in the full sample and in large banks, but not in other banks. The liquidity of large banks tends also to increase with leverage levels. With reference to the impact of macroeconomic conditions on leverage of banks we find that leverage of large banks is the most procyclical during a crisis period. Liquidity risk is procyclical during non-crisis periods. However, during a crisis period this liquidity risk is countercyclical, consistent with the view that even slight improvements in macroeconomic environment do not stimulate banks to increase their exposure to this risk. Such effect is particularly strong in the case of large banks. Generally, such counter-cyclicality of liquidity risk of large banks may result in weaker access to the bank financing necessary to stimulate investments in the real economy during a crisis period. This may have further negative consequences for the real economy, generating an extended period of sluggish economic growth.
Źródło:
Bezpieczny Bank; 2016, 4 (65); 27-59
1429-2939
Pojawia się w:
Bezpieczny Bank
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Macroprudential policy instruments and procyclicality of loan-loss provisions – cross-country evidence
Autorzy:
Olszak, Małgorzata
Roszkowska, Sylwia
Kowalska, Iwona
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/482937.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Tematy:
macroprudential policy
loan-loss provisions
business cycle
procyclicality
Opis:
We analyze the effectiveness of various macroprudential policy instruments in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions (LLPs) using individual bank information from over 65 countries and applying the two-step GMM Blundell-Bond (1998) approach with robust standard errors. Our research identifies several new facts. Firstly, borrower restrictions are definitely more effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions than other macroprudential policy instruments. This effect is supported in both unconsolidated and consolidated data and is robust to several robustness checks. Secondly, dynamic provisions, large exposure concentration limits and taxes on specific assets are effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions. And finally, we find that both loan-to-value caps and debt-to-income ratios, are especially effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Off-balance-sheet restrictions, concentration limits and taxes are also effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Dynamic provisions reduce the procyclicality of LLP independently of bank size.
Źródło:
Faculty of Management Working Paper Series; 2016, WPS 4/2016; 1-52
2300-4371
Pojawia się w:
Faculty of Management Working Paper Series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Exposure of Polish enterprises to risk within business cycle
Autorzy:
Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108398.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
economic risk
risk assessment
Polish enterprises
business cycle
Opis:
In economies with relatively short free-market traditions, enterprises are highly exposed to general economic risk, including fluctuations in the business cycle, which may result in the limitation of their development opportunities and discourage them from undertaking business activity. Having regard to the aforementioned circumstances, the main goal of this article is to assess the exposure of Polish enterprises to the risk related to changes in the economic situation. To achieve the goal set in such a manner, the first part of the article covers the grounds for the undertaken research along with an overview of the literature concerning the presented issues. In the second part of the article, the results of the risk assessment and the relationships of its level to the course of the business cycle in Poland during the years of 2000 to 2015 are shown. In the process of risk measurement, the statistical measures of variability and dynamics indices regarding the financial results of Polish enterprises are used. Whereas, in the course of determining the changes in the business cycle, the author makes use of the changes in the level of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Źródło:
Managerial Economics; 2018, 19, 2; 187-203
1898-1143
Pojawia się w:
Managerial Economics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Economic sentiment indicators and their prediction capabilities in business cycles of EU countries
Autorzy:
Tkacova, Andrea
Gavurova, Beata
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19908930.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
business cycle
cross correlation
prediction
ESI
GDP
IIP
Opis:
Research background: The post-World Financial Crisis period has showed us that an application of the qualitative data focused on the expectations of the enterprises and consumers in a combination with the quantitative data in the individual economy sectors is a good prerequisite for reliable prediction of the economic cycles. Purpose of the paper: The main goal of the presented study was to test the ESI prediction capabilities and its components in a relation to the economic cycles of the EU countries in the individual time periods. Methods: The time series for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 and the three selected time periods were a subject to undergo the selection of the cyclical component applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter and then, the relationship between the variables was determined employing the Pearson correlation coefficient with the time shifts. The relation of ESI and its components to GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which represent the economic cycle, was analysed. The prediction volume and the cross-correlation values determined the nature of the observed cyclical variables. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis point to the fact that ESI and its components are able to ensure a high-quality prediction of the economic cycle only in the selected EU countries. Regarding the components of the ESI, the Consumer confidence indicator, Construction and Industrial confidence indicators show the best predictive capabilities. The analytical outcomes show that the ESI size and lead period vary over time and after the 2008 crisis, the ESI showed better predictive capabilities in a relation to GDP and IIP than before the crisis. The Covid 19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on the ESI predictive capabilities.
Źródło:
Oeconomia Copernicana; 2023, 14, 3; 977-1008
2083-1277
Pojawia się w:
Oeconomia Copernicana
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A breakdown of sector performance of the visegrad countries and germany in light of structural convergence
Autorzy:
Úradníček, Vladimír
Zimková, Emília
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/434116.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Tematy:
business cycle synchronization
sector breakdown
Krugman specialization index
Opis:
The aim of this contribution is to analyze a breakdown of sector performance of the Visegrad countries and Germany in light of structural convergence. The macroeconomic view on structural convergence was researched by the estimation of business cycle synchronization of pairs of countries. The microeconomic aspect of structural convergence is characterized by the breakdown of sector performance of the analyzed countries and the application of the Krugman specialization index.
Źródło:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny; 2013, 11(17); 31-48
1644-6739
Pojawia się w:
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The Viterbi paths in an analysis of business cycle synchronization
Autorzy:
Bernardelli, Michał
Dędys, Monika
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500668.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
Markov switching models
Viterbi path
business cycle synchronization
Opis:
In the paper we investigate possibility of using the Viterbi paths to analyze two-dimensional macroeconomic time series. We build a two-dimensional Gaussian Markov-switching model with a four-state hidden Markov chain. The model is tested with two pairs of monthly indexes of industrial production for: Poland vs. France, and Poland vs. Germany. The most likely sequence of states of the hidden Markov chain is found for each pair. We compare that sequence with analogous sequences determined for a one-dimensional model with a two-state hidden Markov chain. The results of the comparison suggests the four state Viterbi path provides more valuable information about business cycle synchronization between the two economies than two separate two-state Viterbi paths.
Źródło:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 2015, 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty; 9-23
0866-9503
Pojawia się w:
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Empirical Properties of the Credit and Equity Cycle within Almost Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes - the Case of Poland, UK and USA
Autorzy:
Lenart, Łukasz
Pipień, Mateusz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076533.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
financial cycle
business cycle
discrete spectral analysis
APC processes
subsampling approach
Opis:
We discuss the notion of the financial cycle making a clear indication that the thorough study of its empirical properties in case of developing economies is still missing. We focus on the observed series of credit and equity and make formal statistical inference about the properties of the cycles in case of Polish economy. The non-standard subsampling procedure and discrete spectral characteristics of almost periodically correlated time series are applied to make formal statistical inference about the cycle. We compare the results with those obtained for UK and USA. We extract the cyclical component and confront empirical properties of the financial cycle for small open economy with those established so far in case of developed economies.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2015, 3; 169-186
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 53

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