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Wyszukujesz frazę "Uncertainty;" wg kryterium: Temat


Tytuł:
Management in the Time of "Generalized Uncertainty" the Question of Revelvance
Autorzy:
Koźmiński, Andrzej K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/417387.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
Uncertainty
Opis:
Uncertainty is a state of mind. Around 1930 at the beginning of the big depression crisis, Keynes predicted that during the next 100 years, the standard of living in the most advanced countries will increase from four to eightfold. In spite of World War II, this overly optimistic prediction (as it seemed at that time) was confirmed in the 80 years since Keynes’s prophecy. In spite of the big crisis of the 1930s and the devastation of World War II, the standard of living in the western world increased four to fivefold.
Źródło:
Management and Business Administration. Central Europe; 2015, 4; 2-10
2084-3356
Pojawia się w:
Management and Business Administration. Central Europe
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainty propagation in structural reliability with implicit limit state functions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
Autorzy:
Zhou, Shuang
Zhang, Jianguo
You, Lingfei
Zhang, Qingyuan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1841668.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
structural reliability
uncertainty quantification
uncertainty propagation
reliability index
uncertainty theory
Opis:
Uncertainty propagation plays a pivotal role in structural reliability assessment. This paper introduces a novel uncertainty propagation method for structural reliability under different knowledge stages based on probability theory, uncertainty theory and chance theory. Firstly, a surrogate model combining the uniform design and least-squares method is presented to simulate the implicit limit state function with random and uncertain variables. Then, a novel quantification method based on chance theory is derived herein, to calculate the structural reliability under mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The concepts of chance reliability and chance reliability index (CRI) are defined to show the reliable degree of structure. Besides, the selection principles of uncertainty propagation types and the corresponding reliability estimation methods are given according to the different knowledge stages. The proposed methods are finally applied in a practical structural reliability problem, which illustrates the effectiveness and advantages of the techniques presented in this work.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2021, 23, 2; 231-241
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Static and sensitivity analysis of nonlocal nanobeams subject to load and material uncertainties by convex modeling
Autorzy:
Radebe, I. S.
Adali, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/281141.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Mechaniki Teoretycznej i Stosowanej
Tematy:
nanobeams
load uncertainty
material uncertainty
convex modeling
sensitivity
Opis:
At the nano-scale, loads acting on a nanobeam and its material properties are likely to be not known precisely, i.e., uncertain. In the present paper, the deflection of a nanobeam subject to load and material uncertainties is studied by convex modeling of the uncertainties. The level of uncertainty is taken to be bounded and the maximum deflection corresponding to the worst-case of loading or material properties is obtained, that is, the uncertainties are determined so as to maximize the deflection. The sensitivity of the deflection to the uncertainty in the material properties is also investigated. Numerical results are given relating the level of uncertainty to maximum deflection.
Źródło:
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics; 2015, 53, 2; 345-356
1429-2955
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Accuracy analysis of the 2D resistance-to-voltage converters for resistive sensors
Autorzy:
Warsza, Z. L.
Idźkowski, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114306.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
converter
error
uncertainty
Opis:
The novelty of this work is the analysis of accuracy measures and its visualization especially for the simultaneous two parameter measurements. The parameters of the resistance-to-voltage converters, i.e. different types of DC circuits with arbitrary variable resistive sensors (of relative resistance increments), and their accuracy measures are discussed. Transfer coefficients, limited error (and also standard uncertainty) as functions of relative increments of resistance are shown in broad range for different types of supply and sensor configuration of the circuit of initial 2D converters.
Źródło:
Measurement Automation Monitoring; 2015, 61, 10; 460-464
2450-2855
Pojawia się w:
Measurement Automation Monitoring
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Proposition of a method of determining the thermovision measurement extended uncertainty of the surface temperature of an object close to a camera lens
Autorzy:
Dziarski, Krzysztof
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114078.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Tematy:
uncertainty
thermography
metrology
Opis:
In the article the influence of selected factors occurring during thermal measurements on the uncertainty of thermovision temperature measurement is discussed. A situation in which the observed surface was close to the camera lens was measured (distance less than one meter). Based on the type B determination methodology described in the literature on the subject, a method of calculating the measurement extended uncertainty is proposed. A division of factors influencing the thermovision temperature measurement uncertainty into external factors and internal factors is also proposed. Factors associated with the conditions prevailing during the measurement, the geometry of the measurement system and the properties of the observed surface were considered external factors. Factors related to the calibration of the thermal imaging camera, the sensor matrix used and the properties of its measuring path were qualified as internal factors. The method of determining the value of the camera display at the highest and lowest value of a particular factor is discussed. The probability distribution for each of the external factors was determined. The measuring system constructed is presented. It is explained how the uncertainty shares and expanded uncertainty were determined in accordance with the method proposed.
Źródło:
Measurement Automation Monitoring; 2019, 65, 1; 7-10
2450-2855
Pojawia się w:
Measurement Automation Monitoring
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Pressure Level Standard Deviation at Low Frecuencies: Effect of the Wall Vibrational Field
Autorzy:
Navacerrada, M. A.
Diaz, C.
Pedrero, A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/176711.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
building acoustic
uncertainty
Opis:
Knowledge of the uncertainty of measurement of testing results is important when results have to be compared with limits and specifications. In the measurement of sound insulation following standards ISO 140-4 and 140-5 the uncertainty of the final magnitude is mainly associated to the average sound pressure levels L1 and L2 measured. However, the study of sound fields in enclosed spaces is very difficult: there are a wide variety of rooms with different sound fields depending on factors as volume, geometry and materials. A parameter what allows us to quantify the spatial variation of the sound pressure level is the standard deviation of the pressure levels measured at the different positions of the room. Based on the analysis of this parameter some results have been pointed out: we show examples on the influence of the microphone positions and the wall characteristics on the uncertainty of the final magnitudes mainly at the low frequencies regime. In this line, we propose a theoretical calculus of the standard deviation as a combined uncertainty of the standard deviation already proposed in the literature focused in the room geometry and the standard deviation associated to the wall vibrational field.
Źródło:
Archives of Acoustics; 2012, 37, 4; 561-569
0137-5075
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Acoustics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Uncertainty of science and decision-making – problems with evidence-based policy
Autorzy:
Malinowski, Grzegorz
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1194449.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Tematy:
science uncertainty
irreducible uncertainty
loser problem
statistical errors
precautionary principle
Opis:
The purpose of this article is primarily to introduce the topic of scientific uncertainty to the wider context of economics and management. Scientific uncertainty is one of the manifestations of irreducible uncertainty and reflection on it should enable better decision making. An entity that bases its operation on current scientific research, which depreciates over time and ultimately leads to erroneous decisions, is referred to as the “loser”. The text indicates estimation of potential scale of this problem supplemented by an outline of sociological difficulties identified in the analysis of the process of building scientific statements. The article ends with a sketch of the answer to the question “how to act in the context of scientific uncertainty?”
Źródło:
Edukacja Ekonomistów i Menedżerów; 2019, 54, 4; 9-29
1734-087X
Pojawia się w:
Edukacja Ekonomistów i Menedżerów
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Quantifying soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainties by modified GLUE method
Autorzy:
Yan, Yifan
Liu, Jianli
Zhang, Jiabao
Zhao, Yongchao
Xiaopeng, Li
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/973010.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Agrofizyki PAN
Tematy:
soil hydraulic properties
uncertainty
generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
evaporation experiment
Opis:
Nonlinear least squares algorithm is commonly used to fit the evaporation experiment data and to obtain the ‘optimal’ soil hydraulic model parameters. But the major defects of nonlinear least squares algorithm include non-uniqueness of the solution to inverse problems and its inability to quantify uncertainties associated with the simulation model. In this study, it is clarified by applying retention curve and a modified generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation method to model calibration. Results show that nonlinear least squares gives good fits to soil water retention curve and unsaturated water conductivity based on data observed by Wind method. And meanwhile, the application of generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation clearly demonstrates that a much wider range of parameters can fit the observations well. Using the ‘optimal’ solution to predict soil water content and conductivity is very risky. Whereas, 95% confidence interval generated by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation quantifies well the uncertainty of the observed data. With a decrease of water content, the maximum of nash and sutcliffe value generated by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation performs better and better than the counterpart of nonlinear least squares. 95% confidence interval quantifies well the uncertainties and provides preliminary sensitivities of parameters.
Źródło:
International Agrophysics; 2017, 31, 3; 433-445
0236-8722
Pojawia się w:
International Agrophysics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Belief reliability-based design optimization method with quantile index under epistemic uncertainty
Autorzy:
Chen, Yubing
Wen, Meilin
Zhang, Qingyuan
Kang, Rui
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/24200835.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:
belief reliability
reliability design optimization
epistemic uncertainty
quantile index
uncertainty theory
Opis:
Product reliability design optimization is affected by epistemic uncertainty greatly, which leaves significant risks in product use. In this paper, a new belief reliability-based design optimization (BRBDO) method under epistemic uncertainty is established to handle this problem. First, the belief reliability theory is introduced into the design optimization problem, and a quantile index is proposed to quantify belief reliability level based on uncertainty theory, through which a rapid analysis method called first order belief reliability analysis (FOBRA) method is developed. Then, according to the different trade-off strategies, two types of design optimization models are established, and corresponding FOBRA-based computation methods are also demonstrated. Finally, several case applications are studied to verify the effectiveness of the analysis and design optimization methods proposed in this paper. The results indicate that the BRODO method with the quantile index can save a lot of computational time with acceptable accuracy and can rationally cope with epistemic uncertainty.
Źródło:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 2; art. no. 163545
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:
Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The effect of uncertainty on capital structure
Autorzy:
Wennie, Wennie
Nugroho, Vina C
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/18104683.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023-09-28
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Zarządzania i Finansów
Tematy:
target leverage ratio
uncertainty
Opis:
The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of uncertainty on the capital structure of public listed companies in Indonesia. This study used asset volatility as a method of measuring uncertainty. The researchers use unbalanced panel data from 2009 to 2019 in order to assess and analyse the effect of uncertainty on the company‘s capital structure. The results of this study indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and the company‘s target leverage.
Źródło:
Journal of Management and Financial Sciences; 2023, 47; 71-86
1899-8968
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Management and Financial Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Relational capital for managing the uncertainty of the environment
Autorzy:
Lenart, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/348077.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Akademia Wojsk Lądowych imienia generała Tadeusza Kościuszki
Tematy:
relational capital
uncertainty
environment
Opis:
The article is an attempt to show the essence of relational capital in the context of the environmental uncertainty. The problem is all the more important that, on the one hand, the uncertainty is a challenge for representatives of management sciences, on the other hand, it is an immanent feature of any business activity. There is a necessity to search for a remedy for the lack of information needed to make decisions and the inability to predict effects of the decisions taken. The aim of this article is to present the current theoretical achievements in terms of the essence of relational capital in the context of the uncertainty of the environment. The article is divided into three parts. The first of them is devoted to the essence of the environmental uncertainty. The second part concerns the nature of relational capital from the perspective of the resource approach. The third part is an attempt to present the essence of relational capital in the context of the environmental un-certainty. There are indicated capabilities of managing the uncertainty of the environment, which can be achieved through relational capital. The literature shows the deficit of scientific research (theoretical and empirical) referring to relational capital in the context of the uncertainty. Moreover, the existing acquis comprises interesting cognitive gaps which , when filled in, should contribute to a deeper understanding of relational capital versus the uncertainty of the environment - which is going to be the subject of the author's further research.
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe / Wyższa Szkoła Oficerska Wojsk Lądowych im. gen. T. Kościuszki; 2015, 1; 58-68
1731-8157
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe / Wyższa Szkoła Oficerska Wojsk Lądowych im. gen. T. Kościuszki
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Institutions: Uncertainty in Definition of the Term. A Brief Look at the history: 1890-1930
Autorzy:
Arnania-Kepuladze, Tamila
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517417.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
institution
behaviour
uncertainty
definition
Opis:
: Despite the fact that the significance of institutional economics is commonly recognized, the uncertainty of basic concepts of institutional economics – institutions – and its investigation sphere is widely mentioned today. The paper aims to trace the process of evolution in the understanding of the notion of institution, from its spontaneous mentions and pragmatic use of the so-called pre-institutional era to the desire to understand and to define the essence of the institution in the period of early institutionalism. Based on the analyses of appropriate literature, the paper tries to study how the term “institution” was understood at the three initial historical period of its usage. For this purpose, the first part of the paper analyses how the term “institu-tion” was used at the start by religious figures in VII and XIII centuries and then by thinkers in XVII-XVIII centuries which are considered as a pre-history of the term “institution” wide usage. The second part of the study is focused on the investigation how the term was understood by immediate predecessors of institutional economics – German Historical School, and the third part of the paper investigates scholars-institutionalists’ efforts in the intellectual context on the period 1890-1930.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2014, 9, 4; 79-102
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multi-objective geometric programming problem under uncertainty
Autorzy:
Mandal, W. A.
Islam, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406405.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Tematy:
uncertainty theory
uncertain variable
linear
normal
zigzag
uncertainty distribution
multiobjective geometric programming
Opis:
Multiobjective geometric programming (MOGP) is a powerful optimization technique widely used for solving a variety of nonlinear optimization problems and engineering problems. Generally, the parameters of a multiobjective geometric programming (MOGP) models are assumed to be deterministic and fixed. However, the values observed for the parameters in real-world MOGP problems are often imprecise and subject to fluctuations. Therefore, we use MOGP within an uncertainty based framework and propose a MOGP model whose coefficients are uncertain in nature. We assume the uncertain variables (UVs) to have linear, normal or zigzag uncertainty distributions and show that the corresponding uncertain chance-constrained multiobjective geometric programming (UCCMOGP) problems can be transformed into conventional MOGP problems to calculate the objective values. The paper develops a procedure to solve a UCCMOGP problem using an MOGP technique based on a weighted-sum method. The efficacy of this procedure is demonstrated by some numerical examples.
Źródło:
Operations Research and Decisions; 2017, 27, 4; 85-109
2081-8858
2391-6060
Pojawia się w:
Operations Research and Decisions
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Metrological Analysis of Precision of the System of Delivering a Water Capsule for Explosive Production of Water Aerosol
Autorzy:
Śmigielski, G.
Toczek, W.
Dygdała, R.
Stefański, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/221553.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
water capsule airdrop control system
uncertainty analysis
GUM uncertainty framework
propagation of distributions
Opis:
In this paper precision of the system controlling delivery by a helicopter of a water capsule designed for extinguishing large scale fires is analysed. The analysis was performed using a numerical method of distribution propagation (the Monte Carlo method) supplemented with results of application of the uncertainty propagation method. In addition, the optimum conditions for the airdrop are determined to ensure achieving the maximum area covered by the water capsule with simultaneous preserving the precision level necessary for efficient fire extinguishing.
Źródło:
Metrology and Measurement Systems; 2016, 23, 1; 47-58
0860-8229
Pojawia się w:
Metrology and Measurement Systems
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
New Approach to the Uncertainty Assessment of Acoustic Effects in the Environment
Autorzy:
Batko, W.
Pawlik, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/177204.pdf
Data publikacji:
2012
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
interval arithmetic
uncertainty
railway noise
Opis:
The acoustic climate assessment needed for the selection of solutions (technical, legal and organisa- tional), which will help to minimise the acoustic hazards in the analysed areas, is realised on the basis of acoustic maps. The reference computational algorithms, assigned to them, require very thorough prepa- ration of input data for the considered noise source model representing – in the best possible way – the acoustic climate. These input data are burdened with certain uncertainties in this class of computational tasks. The uncertainties are related to the problem of selecting proper argument values (from the inter- val of their possible variability) for the modelled processes. This situation has a direct influence on the uncertainty of acoustic maps. The idea of applying the interval arithmetic for the assessment of acoustic models uncertainty is formulated in this paper. The computational formalism assigned to the interval arithmetic was discussed. The rules of interval estimations for the model solutions determining the sound level distribution around the analysed noise source – caused by possible errors in the input data – were presented. The application of this formalism was illustrated in uncertainty assessments of modelling acoustic influences of the railway noise linear source on the environment.
Źródło:
Archives of Acoustics; 2012, 37, 1; 57-61
0137-5075
Pojawia się w:
Archives of Acoustics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł

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