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Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 23
Tytuł:
Impact of climate variability on yield of maize and yam in Cross River State, Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag bound approach
Autorzy:
Edet, E. O.
Udoe, P. O.
Isong, I. A.
Abang, S. O.
Ovbiroro, F. O.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1031443.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Tematy:
Sustainable development
error correction model
food security
yield
Opis:
The study examined the impact of climate variability on yield of maize and yam in Cross River State, Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study were to determine the long-run and short-run impact of climate variability factors on yields of maize and yam. Data were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMeT) and Cross River State Ministry of Agriculture spanning from 1990-2016. Data obtained were analyzed using inferential statistics. Precisely, the model was estimated by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression technique, which is within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound approach and error correction testing framework. Both model-1 (maize yield) and model-2 (yam yield) passed through the conditions of the diagnostics and stability test. The study revealed that climate variables had a significant impact on maize yield both in the long and short-run. Based on the findings, it was concluded that proactive measures should be put in place to aid crop farmers adapt to the prevailing and looming threats of climate variability for the purpose of attaining the State’s food security balance sheet. To sustain this drive, an institutional and infrastructural support system is advocated in order to meet one of the goals of sustainable development agenda of the United Nations. Policy recommendations on how to cushion the impact of climate variability on the prescribed crops have been appropriately cited.
Źródło:
World News of Natural Sciences; 2021, 36; 60-74
2543-5426
Pojawia się w:
World News of Natural Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria
Autorzy:
Amassoma, Ditimi
Sunday, Keji
Onyedikachi, Emma-Ebere
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522429.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Central Bank of Nigeria
Error correction model
Granger causality
Opis:
Aim/purpose – The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria. The study was borne out of the curiosity to reexamine the immediate cause of the alarming rate of inflation in Nigeria which is adversely affecting the general welfare of Nigerian populace. Design/methodology/approach – The study employed co-integration test and error correction approach on annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016 to ascertain both the long run and short run dynamics relationship among the variables under consideration. Findings – The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The error correction model has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. Research implications/limitations – The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimise importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The Central Bank of Nigeria should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large. Originality/value/contribution – This paper has been able to confirm that money supply is not a key factor that trigger up inflation in Nigeria.
Źródło:
Journal of Economics and Management; 2018, 31; 5-23
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Determinants of trade balance in Polish and Czech manufacturing sectors
Autorzy:
Olczyk, Magdalena
Kordalska, Aleksandra
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446541.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
CEE economies
trade balance
international competitiveness
manufacturing
error correction model
Opis:
Research background: A strong industrial base is essential for achieving long-term sustainable economic growth and export competitiveness. In that sense, manufacturing remains a significant contributor to exports in the CEE countries. How-ever, its role and its influence vary between CEE economies and change over time. Purpose of the article: The main objective of this paper is to compare the determinants of the international competitiveness, measured by the net exports of the manufacturing sectors in the Czech and Polish economies, by using the database of 13 manufacturing sub-sectors in 1995-2011. The authors research the question of how much foreign and domestic demand, the level of labour costs, the level of sector innovation intensity, the level of sector openness to foreign markets as well as sectoral labour productivity influence the changes in trade balance. Methods: Our approach is based on employing an error correction model and SUR model to disaggregated sectoral manufacturing data. Findings & Value added: The results of the analysis conducted show substantial differences in the roles particular variables play in explaining the net exports in individual sectors. For the majority of Polish and Czech manufacturing sub-sectors, generation of positive trade balance is determined by relative demand growth. An increasing labour productivity influences heavily a positive trade balance of Polish goods in majority of sub-sectors, however, a key factor in Czech sub-sectors is decreasing unit labour costs. The results of the analysis indicate mostly a greater impact of the researched factors on net exports in long rather than short term and the better capacity of the Czech economy to correct deviations from the equilibrium.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2018, 13, 3; 445-466
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Reaction of the interest rates in Poland to the interest rates changes in the USA and euro zone
Autorzy:
Przekota, Grzegorz
Waściński, Tadeusz
Sobczak, Lidia
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453096.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Tematy:
interest rates
world markets
cointegration analysis
Error Correction Model (ECM)
Opis:
Behavior of interest rates is of key importance for understanding the functioning of an open economy. The simplest models usually assume equal interest rates in individual countries, while the international arbitrage serves as a mechanism of their equalization. In our study an attempt has been made to determine whether and to what extend the interest rates in the Polish market are linked to the USA and the euro zone exchange rates. The analyses have been carried out for rates of different maturity terms, using the integration and co-integration concept.The analyses indicate that differences between the Polish interest rates, and those in the USA and the euro zone have strongly diminished. Cointegration analyses show the existence of a long-term linkages between the domestic and foreign interest rates, in particular with those in the euro zone. The nature of co-integrating relationships was different in the period 2001-2004 as compared with that after 2004, when we see a stronger impact of the euro zone rates than those of the USA. It may be assumed that the Polish accession to the EU had certain influence in the change of the above mentioned relationships.
Źródło:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych; 2011, 12, 1; 125-134
2082-792X
Pojawia się w:
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Crude Oil Price and Speculative Activity: A Cointegration Analysis
Autorzy:
Socha, Robert
Wdowiński, Piotr
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076245.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
crude oil price
speculation
futures
cointegration
vector error correction model
Opis:
The aim of the study is to discuss the relationship of the crude oil price, speculative activity and fundamental factors. An empirical study was conducted with a VEC model. Two cointegrating vectors were identified. The first vector represents the speculative activity. We argue that the number of short noncommercial positions increases with the crude oil stock and price, decreases with the higher number of long non-commercial positions. A positive trend of crude oil prices may be a signal for traders outside the industry to invest in the oil market, especially as access to information could be limited for them. The second vector represents the crude oil price under the fundamental approach. The results support the hypothesis that the crude oil price is dependent on futures trading. The higher is a number of commercial long positions, the greater is the pressure on crude oil price to increase.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2018, 3; 263-304
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of budget deficits and macroeconomic fundamentals: A VAR-VECM approach
Autorzy:
Epaphra, Manamba
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522020.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Tematy:
Budget deficit
Macroeconomic variables
Vector Autoregression
Vector Error-Correction Model
Opis:
Aim/purpose – This paper examines the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables in Tanzania for the period spanning from 1966 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses Vector autoregression (VAR) – Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and variance decomposition techniques. The Johansen’s test is applied to examine the long run relationship among the variables under study. Findings – The Johansen’s test of cointegration indicates that the variables are cointegrated and thus have a long run relationship. The results based on the VAR-VECM estimation show that real GDP and exchange rate have a negative and significant relationship with budget deficit whereas inflation, money supply and lending interest rate have a positive one. Variance decomposition results show that variances in the budget deficits are mostly explained by the real GDP, followed by inflation and real exchange rate. Research implications/limitations – Results are very indicative, but highlight the importance of containing inflation and money supply to check their effects on budget deficits over the short run and long-run periods. Also, policy recommendation calls for fiscal authorities in Tanzania to adopt efficient and effective methods of tax collection and public sector spending. Originality/value/contribution – Tanzania has been experiencing budget deficit since the 1970s and that this budget deficit has been blamed for high indebtedness, inflation and poor investment and growth. The paper contributes to the empirical debate on the causal relationship between budget deficits and macroeconomic variables by employing VAR-VECM and variance decomposition approaches.
Źródło:
Journal of Economics and Management; 2017, 30; 20-57
1732-1948
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Economics and Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator
Autorzy:
Klúcik, Miroslav
Juriová, Jana
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483289.pdf
Data publikacji:
2010
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Global economic crisis
recession
composite leading indicator
ARIMAX model
error correction model
Opis:
The economy of Slovakia experienced a turning point in the 1st half of 2008 and entered a phase of decline. The negative impacts of the global economic crisis became evident in the 2nd half of 2008 and led into a recession in the 1st quarter of 2009. The composite leading indicator was originally intended for forecasting of business cycle turning points between the decline and growth phases. The aim of this paper is to transform the qualitative information from composite leading indicator into quantitative forecast and verify whether the beginning of recession in Slovakia could have been identified in advance. The ARIMAX and error correction models are used for the composite reference series and GDP forecasts respectively. The final result shows that the composite leading indicator is useful not only for identifying turning points, but also for the prediction of recession phase.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2010, 2, 1; 17-36
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of the impact of selected economic variables on sorghum prices in Nigeria
Autorzy:
Ajibade, Toyin Benedict
Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Ojoko, Emmanuel Ada
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/952113.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
autocorrelation
cochrane-orcutt procedure
cereal
cointegration
error correction model
time series
Opis:
Nigeria is the world’s leading producer of sorghum intended for use as food grain. Likewise, there has been growing industrial demand for sorghum in the livestock breeding and brewery sectors. As sorghum prices have been on the increase, it becomes pertinent to identify the determinants of this development in order to nip the imminent food crisis in the bud. This study relied on time series data spanning from 1970 to 2015 retrieved from FAOSTAT and World Bank databases. Analytical methods employed include the unit root test, cointegration test and error correction mechanism. The diagnostic tests indicated the presence of autocorrelation which was subsequently adjusted with the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure. Subsequent tests indicated that variables fit well to the model. As shown by the ADF unit root test, the modeled variables were non-stationary but became stationary after first differencing. At a significance level of 5%, the sorghum price was determined by gross domestic product (GDP), annual money supply, official exchange rate and crude oil price, both in the long and short run, whereas the lagged price of sorghum also had an effect on prices in the short run. The study recommends that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, annual money supply and official exchange rate be taken cognizance of when planning the agricultural development in Nigeria.
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2017, 46, 4; 723-729
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A price transmission analysis of pasteurised liquid milk in South Africa: granger causility approach
Autorzy:
Ramoshaba, Tshegofatso
Belete, Abanet
Hlongwane, Johanes Jan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1902627.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019-12-28
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
price transmission
Granger causality
pasteurized liquid milk
Vector Error Correction model
Opis:
Price transmission studies have become increasingly important in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decades because of its nature of providing clear and insightful information into these markets. In this study, the price transmission mechanism is described with an agricultural product within the dairy industry, namely pasteurized liquid milk. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the nature of the price transmission mechanism for pasteurized liquid milk in South Africa. The study used secondary time series data that covered a sample size of 17 years (2000–2016) for pasteurized liquid milk. The Granger causality test and the Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. The Granger causality tests suggest that a bidirectional causal relationship exists between processor and farmgate prices, and also between retail and processor prices. On the other hand, retail prices were found to have a unidirectional causality effect on farmgate prices. The VECM results showed asymmetric price transmission, implying that retailers and processors react quicker to a price increase than to a price decrease. A price monitoring policy is suggested to be put in place in order to protect the consumers from unfair prices passed on by the retailers.
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2019, 54, 4; 345-353
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market
Autorzy:
Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, Katarzyna
Welfe, Aleksander
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483283.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
threshold cointegration
threshold error correction model
asymmetric price adjustment
fuel price transmission
Opis:
The purpose of the article is to verify a hypothesis about the asymmetric pass-through of crude oil prices to the selling prices of refinery products (unleaded 95 petrol and diesel oil). The distribution chain is considered at three levels: the European wholesale market, the domestic wholesale market and the domestic retail market. The error correction model with threshold cointegration proved to be an appropriate tool for making an empirical analysis based on the Polish data. As found, price transmission asymmetry in the fuel market is significant and its scale varies depending on the level of distribution. The only exception is the wholesale price transmission to the domestic refinery price. All conclusions are supported by the cumulative response functions. The analysis sheds new light on the price-setting processes in an imperfectly competitive fuel market of a medium-sized, non-oil producing European country in transition.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2014, 2; 105-127
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The response of Zimbabwe tobacco exports to real exchange rates volatility
THE RESPONSE OF ZIMBABWE TOBACCO EXPORTS TO REAL EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY
Autorzy:
Mutodi, Knowledge
Chuchu, Tinashe
Maziriri, Eugine Tafadzwa
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1892227.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020-07-08
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:
Real exchange rate (RER)
Real exchange rate volatility (RERV)
Vector error correction model (VECM)
Opis:
The focus of this study was on investigating the response of tobacco exports to real exchange rates and real exchange rate volatility and other factors in Zimbabwe using secondary data spanning from 1980 to 2019. Bilateral nominal exchange rates and time-variant weights of Zimbabwe’s 10 major trading partners were calculated and used to compute the real exchange rate index. The time-dependent weighting system was used to better represent the evolution of trade patterns in the index. The arithmetic method was employed for computing the index. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models were used to generate the real exchange rate volatility index. The export response function was adopted as the tobacco exports response model. The variables in the tobacco exports response model were the realworld Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real exchange rate, terms of trade, real exchange rate volatility and dollarization. A vector error correction model (VECM) was used to estimate the response of tobacco exports to real exchange rate, real exchange rate volatility and other factors. The VECM results indicated that real world GDP was insignificant in both the short and long run. In the long run, the real exchange rate appreciation had a negative impact on tobacco exports. Conversely, in the short run, the depreciation of real exchange rate had a positive impact on tobacco exports. Hence, the government has to adopt other mechanisms that reduce uncertain movements of exchange rates.
Źródło:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 56, 2; 201-219
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
A Long-Run Relationship between Daily Prices on Two Markets: The Bayesian VAR(2)–MSF-SBEKK Model
Autorzy:
Osiewalski, Krzysztof
Osiewalski, Jacek
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483271.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
Bayesian econometrics
vector error correction model
hybrid MGARCH-MSV processes
financial markets
commodity markets
Opis:
We develop a fully Bayesian framework for analysis and comparison of two competing approaches to modelling daily prices on different markets. The first approach, prevailing in financial econometrics, amounts to assuming that logarithms of prices behave like a multivariate random walk; this approach describes logarithmic returns most often by the VAR(1) model with MGARCH (or sometimes MSV) disturbances. In the second approach, considered here, it is assumed that daily price levels are linked together and, thus, the error correction term is added to the usual VAR(1)–MGARCH or VAR(1)–MSV model for logarithmic returns, leading to a reduced rank VAR(2) specification for logarithms of prices. The model proposed in the paper uses a hybrid MSVMGARCH structure for VAR(2) disturbances. In order to keep cointegration modelling as simple as possible, we restrict to the case of two prices representing two different markets. The aim of the paper is to show how to check if a long-run relationship between daily prices exists and whether taking it into account influences our inference on volatility and short-run relations between returns on different markets. In the empirical example the daily values of the S&P500 index and the WTI oil price in the period 19.12.2005 – 30.09.2011 are jointly modelled. It is shown that, although the logarithms of the values of S&P500 and WTI oil price seem to be cointegrated, neglecting the error correction term leads to practically the same conclusions on volatility and conditional correlation as keeping it in the model.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2013, 5, 1; 65-83
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modeling Nigerian Government Revenues and Total Expenditure: Combined Estimators’ Analysis and Error Correction Model Approach
Autorzy:
Ayinde, Kayode
Bello, Aliyu A.
Ayinde, Opeyemi E.
Adekanmbi, Damilola B.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076559.pdf
Data publikacji:
2015
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Tematy:
unit root test
cointegration test
combined estimators
error correction model
feasible generalized linear estimators
Opis:
The national total expenditure of a country is precipitated on several factors of which revenue generated could be one and very significant. This paper therefore examines the contribution of some selected sources of Nigerian government revenue to total national expenditure. Statistical and econometric techniques used for the data analysis are unit root test, cointegration test, combined estimators’ analysis, the error correction model (ECM) and the feasible generalized linear (FGLS) estimators. Results showed that the variables are non stationary but are stationary at first difference. The long-run relationship of total expenditure on oil revenue, non-oil revenue, federation account and federal retained revenue revealed that the variables are cointegrated and required the use of combined estimators. The effect of nonoil revenue and federal retained revenue is very significant. Investigations on the short-run modeling necessitated the use of FGLS estimators. The effect of ECM and federal retained revenue is very significant. Consequently, other sources of revenue apart from federal retained revenue need to be enhanced and tailored towards improving economic growth and development through national expenditure.
Źródło:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2015, 1; 1-14
2080-0886
2080-119X
Pojawia się w:
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Rationalization of the energy consumption of road transport for sustainable development
Autorzy:
Szaruga, Elżbieta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/135696.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Tematy:
energy consumption
freight road transport
rationalization
steady-state economy
sustainable development
vector error correction model
Opis:
This paper presents an approach to rationalize the energy consumption of road transport towards sustainability in a steady-state economy. The research hypothesis is that the rationalization of the energy consumption of road transport is affected by drift and shocks, which desynchronizes the adjustment mechanism from equilibrium. The objective of this research was to incorporate the model of energy consumption of road freight transport with the goals of sustainability by considering ecological and constructivist rational orders, the issue of order drift, and the occurrence of shocks. The research investigated Poland from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018. A model for rationalizing the energy consumption of road transport was constructed using the vector error correction model and cointegration techniques. The model revealed one cointegrating relationship and showed statistically significant unlimited drift. The level of changes to long-term equilibrium appeared respectively for GDP – 1.8%, PPI for energy – 7.3%, and for energy consumption – 10.9%. We observed a weak sustainability between the energy consumption of road transport and GDP and a strong sustainability between energy consumption of road transport and PPI energy. It was determined that price shocks had a positive impact (at the estimated point level around 0.06) and supply and demand shocks had a negative impact (at the level estimated point around –3).
Źródło:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie; 2020, 62 (134); 36-42
1733-8670
2392-0378
Pojawia się w:
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modelling of price and income effects on Ukraine’s agricultural export growth
Autorzy:
Shevchuk, V.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/94757.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
agricultural exports
error-correction model
exchange rate effects
price and income effects
eksport rolny
model korekty błędów
efekty kursowe
Opis:
Using monthly data for the 2001─2013 period, this paper applies Error- Correction Model (ECM) to estimate export demand effects for Ukraine’s agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. According to our results, the long-run exchange rate sensitivity of export demand seems to be rather weak, whereas the domestic income effect is high enough across all four groups: (i) meat, fish and dairy products; (ii) wheat and vegetables; (iii) vegetable oil and (iv) foodstuffs. No evidence is found of the long-term relationship between agricultural exports and foreign trade-partner industrial output. However, both exchange rate and foreign output are established to strongly affect the demand for agricultural exports in the short-run. Also, there is evidence of a speedy short-run adjustment for all groups of agricultural exports to their long-run relationships.
Źródło:
Information Systems in Management; 2013, 2, 3; 214-226
2084-5537
2544-1728
Pojawia się w:
Information Systems in Management
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
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