- Tytuł:
- Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
- Autorzy:
- Comelli, Fabio
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/565717.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2016
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
- Tematy:
-
Early warning systems
currency crises
out-of-sample performance - Opis:
- We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets signifi cantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
- Źródło:
-
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics; 2016, 2(6); 5-22
2353-6845 - Pojawia się w:
- Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł