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Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
Tytuł:
Comparison of classical and Theil-Kendall methods in assessing the significance of linear trend of precipitation in south-eastern Poland
Autorzy:
Węglarczyk, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/101285.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
Tematy:
annual precipitation total
annual daily maximum precipitation
Upper Vistula River
ordinary least squares linear regression
Kendall-Theil linear regression
Opis:
Two methods of linear trend estimation: the ordinary least squares (OLS, parametric) and Theil-Kendall (TK, nonparametric) are compared in the paper. The comparison was made using 65 time series of annual totals, Pa , and annual daily maximum, Pmax, of precipitation, 30-year long each, recorded in the south-eastern part of Poland (the Upper Vistula catchment). The OLS and TK slope coefficients of trends revealed high similarity for both Pa and Pmax series. The signs of slopes are the same for 64 sites for Pa and 63 sites for Pmax with positive signs prevailing: the numbers of decreasing trends for Pa OLS and TK slopes were 3 and 4, respectively, and, for Pmax, 13 for both OLS and TK slopes. In trend significance testing, both methods produced similar results for Pa time series: out of 16 significant trends, 13 were determined with both OLS and TK at the same sites. For Pmax series such agreement was found for 4 trends out of 10. Spatial distribution of significant trends showed a kind of clustering in certain parts of the investigated area.
Źródło:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2016, IV/2; 1439-1450
1732-5587
Pojawia się w:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The efficiency of some forecasting methods applied to annual minimum flow series
Autorzy:
Weglarczyk, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/61400.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
Tematy:
forecasting method
Holt-Winters model
water level
annual minimum water level
Vistula River
tributary
local linear regression model
river
LOESS model
Opis:
Four methods of forecasting: „no-change", LOESS, local linear regression and Holt-Winters were applied to annual minimum water levels observed at ten cross-sections of two tributaries of the Vistula river. The 1-, 2-, ..., 5-year forecasts were made for each year after some initial year, and four quality measures: bias, root mean square error, mean absolute error and maximum absolute error were calculated for each time series and lead time. The naïve model turned out to be always the worst in it bias and almost always very good, sometimes the best regarding the other measures.
Źródło:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2011, 12
1732-5587
Pojawia się w:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Exceedance probability of selected low characteristic flows in mountain catchments
Autorzy:
Weglarczyk, S.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/60762.pdf
Data publikacji:
2014
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Stowarzyszenie Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich PAN
Tematy:
exceedance probability
low flow
characteristic flow
mountain catchment
flow duration curve
threshold value
annual minimum flow
maximum annual flow
Vistula River
Opis:
In Polish hydrology and water management the term characteristic flow exists denoting a specific value of flow at the given cross-section of a river calculated as the long-term minimum, mean, median or maximum calculated using the annual minimum, mean, median or maximum flow taken for each year from a series of (usually) daily flows. Some of these characteristic flows are used to define the low-flow (o drought) periods while the another criterion: a percentage flow Qp taken from the long-term flow duration curve is also widely used. In the paper the study on the frequency structure the empirical exceedance probability of a given characteristic flow made for some low and average characteristic flows (SNQ, WNQ, NSQ and SSQ) is presented. The results show that the exceedance probability of a given characteristic flow is variable, and the amount of this variability may be large, as is the case of WNQ and NSQ. So assigning a characteristic flow to a single FDC quantile value Qp (as can be find in the literature) cannot be justified. Correlation analysis made for the pairs (P. , characteristic flow), ( P., catchment area) and (P. , gauging station elevation) revealed some significant correlations. Only for SNQ is not correlated at all; correlation for other characteristic flows is statistically significant for at least one of the cases. The highest correlations (greater than 0.4 in absolute values) were found for the pairs ( P, gauging station elevation) for NSQ and, for SSQ, ( P, SSQ) and ( P, catchment area).
Źródło:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich; 2014, IV/3
1732-5587
Pojawia się w:
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modelling of production chains as a tool for intelligent manufacturing in metal forming
Autorzy:
Madej, L.
Weglarczyk, S.
Rauch, L.
Pietrzyk, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1429427.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Wrocławska Rada Federacji Stowarzyszeń Naukowo-Technicznych
Tematy:
life cycle modelling
strain localization
Opis:
The objective of the paper is demonstration of the role of multi scale modelling in the system, which optimizes the whole production chain. Product exploitation and properties are the key parameters for formulation of the objective function in the optimization problem. Such parameters as fatigue resistance, wear resistance or thermal resistance are crucial for extending the life cycle of products, therefore, theoretical prediction of those parameters is inevitable for the optimization of the manufacturing system. Thus, the main focus in the paper is on description of the idea of multi scale modelling and on presentation of the multi scale model developed by the Authors. This model combines finite element (FE) solution of the macro scale problem with the cellular automata (CA) model of the micro scale phenomena. Simulation of the production chain is the second part of the paper. The chain under consideration is composed of stock heating, cold forging, machining and simulation of exploitation conditions. The correlation between the process parameters and the exploitation properties of the product is demonstrated. Finally, the optimization problem which would be the base of intelligent manufacturing, is formulated.
Źródło:
Journal of Machine Engineering; 2008, 8, 2; 33-42
1895-7595
2391-8071
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Machine Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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