- Tytuł:
- Statistical downscaling of probability density function of daily precipitation on the Polish coast
- Autorzy:
-
Wójcik, R.
Pilarski, M.
Miętus, M. - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108542.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2014
- Wydawca:
- Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
- Tematy:
-
statistical downscaling
canonical correlation
precipitation totals
probability density function
gamma distribution - Opis:
- The aim of this study was to recognize the possibility of downscaling probability density function (PDF) of daily precipitation by means of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Sea level pressure (SLP) over Europe and the North Atlantic was used as a predictor. A skilful statistical model could be used to generate projections of future changes of precipitation PDF driven by GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations. Daily precipitation totals from 8 stations located on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea covering the period 1961-2010 were used to estimate the gamma distribution parameters, and only wet days (i.e. ≥0.1mm) were taken in the analysis. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparison of empirical and theoretical (gamma-distributed) quantiles proved that gamma distribution gives a reliable description of daily precipitation totals. The validation of CCA models applied to gamma parameters revealed that the reliable reconstruction of precipitation PDF is possible only for average long-term conditions. In the case of individual months/seasons the agreement between empirical and reconstructed quantiles is poor. This study shows the potential of modelling of precipitation PDF, however efforts should be made to improve model performance by establishing more reliable links between regional forcing and the variability of the gamma parameters.
- Źródło:
-
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2014, 2, 1; 27-36
2299-3835
2353-5652 - Pojawia się w:
- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł