Temat: Semi-Markov model - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov Reliability Model of System Composed of Main Subsystem, Cold Backup Component and Switch
Autorzy:: Grabski, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068910.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:: Probabilistic model of a system composed of a main component, an emergency backup component and the automatic switch are discussed in this paper. The reliability model is semi-Markov process describing evolution of the system. Conditional time to failure of the system is represented by a random variable denoting the first passage time of the process from the given state to the subset of states. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to evaluate the reliability function and some reliability characteristics. To calculate the reliability function and mean time to failure of the system we apply theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory concerning the conditional reliability functions.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 47--54
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Reliability and maintainability characteristics in semi-Markov models
Autorzy:: Grabski, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069172.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability characteristics
Opis:: The characteristics of semi-Markov process we can translate on the reliability characteristics in the semi-Markov reliability model. The cumulative distribution functions of the first passage time from the given states to subset of states, expected values and second moments corresponding to them which are considered in this paper allow to define reliability function of the system. The equations for many reliability characteristics and parameters are here presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 1; 79--86
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Modelling of transport system operational reliability a Markov approach
Autorzy:: Smolarek, Leszek
Ziemska, Monika
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/243419.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport
road transport
simulation
Markov model
semi-Markov model
Opis:: The workability of a transport system is associated with performance and operational reliability. Operational reliability provides a measure of the probability that a transport system will realize transport process as intended. Performance reliability is an adequacy measure of transport process realization under specific environmental and traffic conditions. Transport system can be modelled as repairable, multistate, non-homogenous rectangular or dendrite system. This article provides the Markov and semi Markov models for estimation of the operational and performance reliability of city transport system. The system is semi homogenous it means that serial subsystems have the same reliability function. The reliability of any serial subsystem is exponential. The distribution of the repair time is any probability distribution. In case where the probability distribution of the repair time is exponential, the Markov process is used to construct simulation model. The simulation model was applied at Microsoft Excel. Many stochastic models in engineering, logistic and even finance or insurance are setup in a spreadsheet for simulation. The semi Markov model of the multistate reliability of repaired system is applied to the street system. The embedded Markov chain was used to count stationary probabilities. The possibility of application of the results is illustrated by an example for the systems with rectangular or dendrite shaped accordingly, consist of three types of elements.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2019, 26, 4; 227-234
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: A computational tool for general model of industrial systems operations processes
Autorzy:: Lumanpauw, E.
Habibullah, M. S.
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska, J.
Xie, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069655.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: stochastic process
semi-Markov model
computational tool
reliability
Opis:: The complexities of real industrial systems operation processes require computational methods that can analyze the large data and evaluate the behaviours of these systems. The use of methods such as Bayesian Network, Formal Safety Assessment and Statistical-Model based method were discussed as possibilities. Of which, a computational tool, based on the Semi-Markov model, was developed. This tool was then applied to analyze the behaviour of the operation processes of the oil transportation system in Dębogórze, Poland. The analyses showed that the computational solutions generated compared favorably well with the analytical calculations, enabling possible extensions of the tool to include reliability and optimization evaluations to be explored.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 2; 295--302
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Evaluation of the maintenance system readiness using the semi-Markov model taking into account hidden factors
Autorzy:: Kozłowski, Edward
Borucka, Anna
Oleszczuk, Piotr
Jałowiec, Tomasz
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27322964.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:: maintenance
semi-Markov model
hidden factors
system readiness
Opis:: Modelling the time that the system remains in a given state using classical distributions is not always possible. In many cases, empirical distributions are multimodal due to the influence of external, hidden factors and the selection of the best classical distributions may lead to erroneous results. In the article the method of diagnosis of influence of hidden factors into sojourn time of semi-Markov models was presented. In order to capture hidden factors, the authors proposed to model the distributions of the sojourn time with a mixture of distributions, which is a significant novelty in relation to the studies presented in the literature. Hidden factors directly affect the reliability of technical systems. Detecting the existence of these factors enables more accurate modeling of system readiness. Paying attention to irregularities caused by hidden factors makes it possible to reduce system maintenance costs. Such a system model providescomplete information and enables a reliable assessment of the system readiness and maintenance.
Źródło:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 4; art. no. 172857
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Method for assessment of transport means failures repairs
Autorzy:: Muślewski, Ł.
Woropay, M.
Neubauer, A.
Szubartowski, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/246101.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport system
operation process
semi-Markov model
efficiency
Opis:: An analysis of experimental tests and a literature survey of the issue revealed that the problems connected with assessment of costs and effectiveness of transport means repairs has a significant influence on their operation efficiency. Operating factors affecting the elements of technical objects cause negative changes in their features resulting in failures. The failures are referred to as events which significantly impair the vehicle operation efficiency, safety and reliability. On the basis of experimental tests concerning times of failures occurrence, it was found that the set of failures can be divided into subsets of primary and secondary failures. The tests results revealed that the most frequent cause of secondary failures occurrence was improperly performed primary repairs. Primary failures are not related to each other and they appear randomly. However, secondary failures are related to each other as their occurrence is conditioned by the primary failure and results from an inappropriate performance of the successive secondary failure. Basing on an analysis of the author 's own tests results, it was established that failures of transport means used in real transport systems are the effect of impact of various forcing factors. Some failures result from the natural wear of machine elements, whereas, other failures can be caused by inappropriate repair of the previous damage. Thus, there occur the so called secondary failures in a short period of time. In connection with this, high efficiency of the repair performance is of primary importance as it largely affects efficiency of transport tasks accomplishment. In this article, there has been discussed a method developed for assessment of repair costs connected with elimination of secondary failures and its influence on the studied transport system operation efficiency. Familiarity with available technologies for repairs of primary failures as well as with costs of work and costs connected with technical equipment of the repair stations enables specification of the lowest costs necessary for reduction of the number of secondary failures and the average time of their repairs.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2011, 18, 3; 299-307
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Availability of a technical object determined in a finite time interval
Autorzy:: Woropay, M.
Migawa, K.
Bojar, P.
Szubartowski, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/247070.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
Tematy:: transport system
operation process
semi-Markov model
availability
Opis:: In the article, a method for determination of the technical object availability, GO (r) in a finite time interval x, defined by the time of the transport task duration, has been discussed. All of the study has been presented on the example of a selected system of technical object operation - a system of transport means operation, in a big urban complex (more than 400 thousand inhabitants). Direct performance of the transport tasks in the analyzed system is the responsibility of an executive system consisting of elementary subsystems of the type operator- transport means. Availability of transport means elementary subsystems is crucial for efficient accomplishment of transport tasks. The presented method involves determination of the technical object availability, on the basis of a mathematical model of the operation process which takes place in the studied system, taking into consideration the technical object reliability characteristics. For this purpose, significant states of the transport means operation have been determined and they have been classified in terms of the availability criterion. Basing on this, an event and mathematical models of transport means operation process have been developed, with the semi Markov homogenous model serving as a mathematical model of the studied operation process. Also, values of the analyzed characteristics have been determined.
Źródło:: Journal of KONES; 2011, 18, 4; 555-562
1231-4005
2354-0133
Pojawia się w:: Journal of KONES
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Semi-Markov approach for reliability modelling of light utility vehicles
Autorzy:: Oszczypała, Mateusz
Ziółkowski, Jarosław
Małachowski, Jerzy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/24200838.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2023
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Tematy:: semi-Markov model
reliability modelling
readiness
maintenance analysis
transportation system
Opis:: Vehicles are important elements of military transport systems. Semi-Markov processes, owing to the generic assumption form, are a useful tool for modelling the operation process of numerous technical objects and systems. The suggested approach is an extension of existing stochastic methods employed for a wide spectrum of technical objects; however, research on light utility vehicles complements the subject gap in the scientific literature. This research paper discusses the 3-state semi-Markov model implemented for the purposes of developing reliability analyses. Based on an empirical course of the operation process, the model was validated in terms of determining the conditional probabilities of interstate transitions for an embedded Markov chain, as well as parameters of time distribution functions. The Laplace transform was used to determine the reliability function, the failure probability density function, the failure intensity, and the expected time to failure. The readiness index values were calculated on ergodic probabilities.
Źródło:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność; 2023, 25, 2; art. no. 161859
1507-2711
Pojawia się w:: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards of port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068953.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 57--64
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068984.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 73--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 11.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068991.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 65--72
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 12.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
Autorzy:: Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069003.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: In the paper, there are presented the methods for identification of the critical infrastructure operation process on the basis of statistical data coming from this process realizations related to the critical infrastructure operating environment threats. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the critical infrastructure operation process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional critical infrastructure operation process sojourn times at the particular operation states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process straying at the particular operation states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process transitions between the operation states. Moreover, there are given formulae for the estimator of unknown parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states. Namely, the parameters of the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull’s distribution and the chimney distribution are estimated using the statistical methods such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is described and proposed to be applied to verifying the hypotheses about these distributions choice validity. The procedure of statistical data sets uniformity analysis based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed to be applied to the empirical conditional sojourn times at the operation states coming from different realizations of the same critical infrastructure operation process.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 155--168
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 13.

Tytuł:: Modelling the accident probability in large-scale, maritime transportation system
Autorzy:: Blokus-Roszkowska, A.
Montewka, J.
Smolarek, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069467.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2012
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: maritime transportation system
safety
collision probability
traffic simulation
semi-Markov model
Opis:: The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily being backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of transportation system in operation.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2012, 3, 2; 237--244
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 14.

Tytuł:: Prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:: Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068988.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of prediction of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 143--148
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 15.

Tytuł:: Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system operating at under water Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:: Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068999.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2016
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:: There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 47--56
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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