- Tytuł:
-
Prognozy ekonomiczno-gospodarcze w planowaniu urządzeniowym
Economic and management forecasts in the forest management planning - Autorzy:
- Wysocka-Fijorek, E.
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/979097.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2020
- Wydawca:
- Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
- Tematy:
-
forest management plan
economic evaluation
economic efficiency
revenues - Opis:
- Forest management is carried out based on the economic calculation, taking into account the principles of forest sustainability and protection. For a short period, an attempt to predict the unit’s economic situation on the basis of the analysis of the time series with a trend can be made. Appropriate exponential equalization methods were selected. When forecasting fixed costs in the new economic period, six methods were used (from the last year, from the last three years, Brown simple exponential smoothing model, Holt linear model, Winters model in the additive or multiplicative version) as well as the average value of all forecasts applied was calculated. To evaluate the tested models, among others, mean absolute error, root mean squared error and the predictability of the forecast were assessed. All analyses were performed using the MS EXCEL Solver add−in. Forest districts for which forecasts were made are located in the Regional Directorate of the State Forests in Krakow (A) and Białystok (B). Source data for forecasts came from the State Forests IT System and covered the years 2005−2014. The aim of the research was to evaluate the possibility of using the forecasted economic parameters in forest management planning estimated by various models and techniques of empirical verification. The study attempts to answer the question whether there is an econometric method that allows accurate forecasting of the economic situation of the forest district in the context of the realization of the tasks listed in the forest management plan. Relatively high accuracy of forecasts was achieved using the Holt linear model. Brown model, due to its methodological assumptions, resulted in a reduction in forecast results compared to other forecasting methods and expert knowledge. The method based on calculating the average value from many previously made forecasts gave very good results, which is also reflected in literature. Regardless of the group of costs analyzed, both fixed and unit variables, the lowest values of assessment of the compatibility of forecast were obtained by making the forecast based on the result from the last three years.
- Źródło:
-
Sylwan; 2020, 164, 08; 619-627
0039-7660 - Pojawia się w:
- Sylwan
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł