- Tytuł:
-
Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej: Edycja 1998
Composite Indicators of Business Activity For Poland: 1998 Edition - Autorzy:
- Matkowski, Zbigniew
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/499938.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 1998
- Wydawca:
- Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
- Tematy:
-
Gospodarka, Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Wskaźniki ekonomiczne, Prognozy gospodarcze, Barometry koniunktury
Economy, Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Economic indicators, Economic forecast, Business cycle indicators - Opis:
- The author presents a revised and up-to-date version of composite indicators of business activity for the Polish economy, compiled according to the OECD methodology. They are projected against the reference index GCI, used to describe cyclical fluctuations of the aggregate economic activity. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitudę of growth cycles observed in the development of the economy in the period of 1975-1997. The second part presents 7 altemative versions of CLI for the Polish economy. All are well correlated with the reference cycle, but they display very short leads if any. Nonetheless, the barometer as proposed may be useful in monitoring cyclical developments in the economy. It also offers a possibility to generate extrapolative (autoregressive) forecasts one year ahead. Updating of the composite indicators has revealed the peak of the aggregate economic activity in April 1997. This may suggest that the expansion which started in 1991 comes to its end. Autoregressive forecast of the reference indicator for the year 1998 also indicates a slowdown in economic growth.
- Źródło:
-
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1998, 61; 41-73
0866-9503 - Pojawia się w:
- Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł