- Tytuł:
-
Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej: edycja 1999
Composite Leading Indicators of Business Activity for Poland: 1999 Edition - Autorzy:
- Matkowski, Zbigniew
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500326.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 1999
- Wydawca:
- Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
- Tematy:
-
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Barometry koniunktury
Business trends, Business cycles, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Business cycle indicators - Opis:
- The author presents a revised and up-to-date version of composite leading indicators of business activity for Poland, compiled according to the OECD methodology. They are projected against the reference index GCI, used to describe cyclical fluctuations of the aggregate economic activity. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitude of growth cycles observed in the development of the economy in the period of 1975-1998. The second part presents 10 altemative versions of CLI for Poland. Ali are well correlated with the reference cycle, but most of them display very short leads. The barometer as proposed requires further testing and improvement, yet it may already be used for monitoring purposes. It also offers a possibility to generate extrapolative forecasts one year ahead. Updating of the composite indicators has revealed the peak of the aggregate economic activity in August 1998. This may suggest that the expansion which began in 1991 comes to its end, or that the growth ratę would be significantly reduced. Autoregressive forecast of the reference indicator for 1999 also indicates a slowdown in economic growth.
- Źródło:
-
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 173-212
0866-9503 - Pojawia się w:
- Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł