- Tytuł:
- Use of fuzzy fault tree analysis and noisy-OR gate bayesian network for navigational risk assessment in Qingzhou Port
- Autorzy:
-
Zhao, C.
Wu, B.
Yip, T. L.
Lv, J. - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2063967.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2021
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
- Tematy:
-
risk assessment
Bayesian Network Model
navigational risk
navigational risk assessment
Port of Qingzhou
fuzzy fault tree
noisy-OR gate
navigational accidents - Opis:
- Collisions and groundings account for more than 80% among all types of maritime accidents, and risk assessment is an essential step in the formal safety assessment. This paper proposes a method based on fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for navigational risk assessment. First, a fault tree model was established with historical data, and the probability of basic events is calculated using fuzzy sets. Then, the Noisy-OR gate is utilized to determine the conditional probability of related nodes and obtain the probability distribution of the consequences in the Bayesian network. Finally, this proposed method is applied to Qinzhou Port. From sensitivity analysis, several predominant influencing factors are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequence is sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and reasonable method for risk assessment for navigational accidents.
- Źródło:
-
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2021, 15, 3; 765--771
2083-6473
2083-6481 - Pojawia się w:
- TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł