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    Tytuł:
    Zastosowanie dekompozycji szeregów czasowych do analizy wahań podaży i cen drewna na przykładzie Nadleśnictwa Marcule
    Time series decomposition of timber production volume and prices using the example of the Marcule Forest District
    Autorzy:
    Banas, J.
    Kożuch, A.
    Zaborski, K.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/979561.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne
    Tematy:
    lesnictwo
    Panstwowe Gospodarstwo Lesne Lasy Panstwowe
    Nadlesnictwo Marcule
    rynek drzewny
    drewno
    podaz
    ceny
    zmiennosc sezonowa
    szeregi czasowe
    timber market
    seasonal fluctuations
    cyclic fluctuations
    variation in timber prices
    Opis:
    The objective of the study was to identify and analyze long−term trends as well as cyclic, seasonal, and irregular effects in timber volume and prices by means of time series decomposition. The adopted multiplicative model was the product of all the time series components identified using the Census X11 method. The study material consisted of quarterly data on the volume and prices of timber sold by the Marcule Forest District (central Poland) in the years 2006−2018. Analysis was performed for the overall timber production volume, as well as separately for pine timber (constituting 86% of the total) and oak timber (5%), taking into account large−diameter saw timber (WC0) and medium−diameter industrial and general purpose timber (pulpwood, S2A). Over the analyzed period, the nominal prices of timber rose on average by 39% from 165 to 229 PLN/m3. The greatest price increase was recorded for large−diameter oak timber (by 100%), while the prices of WC0 pine timber, which accounted for the greatest proportion of the production volume, increased by 23% on average. Production characterized marked seasonality throughout the year, depending on the species. Pine timber sales were the lowest in 1st quarter and the highest in 3rd one, while oak timber sales were the lowest in 3rd quarter and the highest in 4th one. The seasonal effect accounted for the largest proportion of variation in timber production volume. The seasonality of timber prices was negatively correlated with production. The highest prices for pine and oak timber were obtained in 1st and 2nd quarters respectively, when the production volume of those timber species was the lowest. Conversely, the lowest prices were recorded in seasons characterized by the greatest production volume, i.e., in 3rd quarter for pine and in 4th quarter for oak. The decomposition of overall variation in timber prices into its components, which can be predicted (cyclic and seasonal fluctuations as well as long−term trend), and those that are difficult to forecast (irregular effect) is of great significance for timber sales management as the results can be used to improve timber price forecasting.
    Źródło:
    Sylwan; 2019, 163, 10; 820-829
    0039-7660
    Pojawia się w:
    Sylwan
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Określanie wartości surowca drzewnego drzewostanów w procesie optymalizacji użytkowania rębnego
    Determining the value of standing timber for harvest planning optimization
    Autorzy:
    Zaborski, K.
    Banas, J.
    Kozuch, A.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2142726.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badawczy Leśnictwa
    Tematy:
    forest valuation
    harvest planning
    stumpage value
    net present value
    consumption value
    wycena lasu
    planowanie pozyskania
    wartość drzew na pniu
    wartość bieżąca netto
    wartość konsumpcyjna
    Opis:
    Forest managers conducting sustainable forest management are guided by the principles of sustainable use of natural resources, which involve the need for long and short-term planning in organizational units of the State Forests. Plans often differ from reality by the time individual treatments and cuts are to be performed. For economic reasons, it is important to optimize harvest planning, not only focusing on the volume of timber to be harvested, but also the price differences of individual tree species and sort types of wood. The purpose of this study was to present methods evaluating standing timber and to assess their usefulness in optimizing the harvest volume using linear programming. Stands designated to be cut were evaluated using transaction value methods, i.e. “the stumpage value method” M1, the “con- sumption value” method M2, as well as the net present value (NPV) method M3. The research material was obtained from the State Forests Information System (SILP) for the Marcule Forest District covering the years 2014–2018. The stand values were determined at the beginning and end of the 10-year planning period. We observed that the stand value (standing timber) differed significantly between method M2 as compared to method M1. The value of stands determined by method M3, on the other hand, decreased as the discount rate increased. In the process of optimizing the selection of stands for felling, economic criteria should also be taken into account and this is a direct measure of obtainable standing timber in terms of the cutting possibility in the given planning period. In stands where one species dominates, a simplified method of determining the value (M1) can be used, whereas in stands with significant species diversity, method M2 provides a significantly more accurate value for the cutting timber. Howe- ver, if harvest volume optimization using linear programming methods is to take longer time periods into account, e.g. 30 years (three 10-year economic planning periods), the most reasonable method for determining the value of stands is the net present value method M3.
    Źródło:
    Leśne Prace Badawcze; 2020, 81, 2; 65-74
    1732-9442
    2082-8926
    Pojawia się w:
    Leśne Prace Badawcze
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
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