- Tytuł:
- The energy consumption forecasting in Mongolia based on Box-Jenkins method (Arima model)
- Autorzy:
-
Zolboo, Gansukh
Adiya, Bor
Bilguun, Enkhbayar - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/101770.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2019
- Wydawca:
- Instytut Polityki Energetycznej im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza
- Tematy:
-
energy forecasting
energy consumption
ARIMA model
Box-Jenkins method - Opis:
- The primary products of the power industry are electric energy and thermal energy. Thus, forecasting electric energy consumption is significant for short and long term energy planning. ARIMA model has adopted to forecast energy consumption because of its precise prediction for energy consumption. Our result has shown that annual average electric energy consumption will be 10,628 million kWh per year during 2019-2030 which approximately 3.3 percent growth per annum. At the moment, there is not a practice solution for the storage of electricity in Mongolia. Therefore, energy supply and demand have to be balanced in real-time for operational stability. Without an accurate forecast, the end-users may experience brownouts or even blackouts or the industry could be faced with sudden accidents due to the energy demand. For this reason, energy consumption forecasting is essential to power system stability and reliability.
- Źródło:
-
Energy Policy Studies; 2019, 1 (3); 70-77
2545-0859 - Pojawia się w:
- Energy Policy Studies
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł