- Tytuł:
- Forecasting industrial production in Poland – a comparison of different methods
- Autorzy:
- Acedański, Jan
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/425092.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2013
- Wydawca:
- Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
- Tematy:
-
forecasting
industrial production
leading indicators
factor models - Opis:
- In this paper we compared the accuracy of a few forecasting methods of the industrial production index in Poland. Naïve forecasts, simple autoregressive models, leading indicator models, factor models as well as joint models were included in the considerations. We used the out-of-sample RMSE and CPA tests as the main measures of the predictions accuracy. We found that three models provided the best predictions in most cases – the models with the PMI index and with the PMI and German IFO indexes as leading indicators as well as joint forecasts.
- Źródło:
-
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics; 2013, 1(39); 40-51
1507-3866 - Pojawia się w:
- Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł