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Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
Tytuł:
Optimization of operative decisions ; computer analysis
Autorzy:
Malinowski, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/205746.pdf
Data publikacji:
2000
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
analiza komputerowa
optymalizacja
symulacja komputerowa
teoria decyzji
teoria gier
teoria systemów
computer analysis
computer simulation
forecast
management
operative control
operative decisions
optimization
Opis:
When entering the age of ubiquitous computing we observe a rapidly increasing number of applications in which - in real time - operative (control or management) decisions are made based on optimization. To implement repetitive optimization of these decisions we need to use process models, models or directly available forecasts of free, uncontrolled, inputs, methods for state and parameter estimation, model adaptation techniques, and, finally, suitable optimization techniques. Analysis and validation of such optimization based systems require - prior to actual real-life implementation - the carefully planned and performed computer experiments. Theoretical methods are always welcome to assist in this analysis - if possible - but it is mainly the computer based simulation experiment which allows us to investigate, verify and tune a complicated decision mechanism and then control system as a whole before this system is authorized to be put to real-life test. Success in design of a system with on-line computed optimization-based operative decisions is therefore dependent upon many factors, in particular - on having good models, efficient and reliable optimization techniques, good software tools for computer based simulation and on proper, real-life-like conditions under which the computer experiments are performed. These key issues concerning development of such control systems are discussed in this paper.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2000, 29, 1; 257-274
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Application of modern portfolio theory to the Russian state bond market
Autorzy:
Pervozvanskij, A.
Barinov, V.
Kozlova, O.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206658.pdf
Data publikacji:
1999
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
optymalizacja
teoria decyzji
forecasting
forecasting errors
forecasting theory
investment
portfolio optimization
Russian state bond market
statistical indices
time series
Opis:
The behaviour of the Russian state bond market is analyzed. Attention is mainly paid to short-term fluctuations and efficiency of short-term investments. Analysis of return time series has shown that there exists a significant autocorrelation, and that distribution of random fluctuations is non-Gaussian. It predetermines a choice of forecasting schemes. The most efficient ones appear to be non-linear. The efficiency was checked not only by the traditional statistical indices by direct numerical experiments where various types of predictors were used as basic elements of decision rules. The decision algorithms have included the solution to the modified optimal portfolio problem where the forecasts were used as expected returns and the covariance matrix was estimated via forecasting errors.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 1999, 28, 4; 799-810
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Optimization of survival strategy by application of safety dependent utility model
Autorzy:
Kulikowski, R.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/205749.pdf
Data publikacji:
2000
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Tematy:
optymalizacja
prawdopodobieństwo
ryzyko
teoria decyzji
teoria systemów
wzór użytkowy
death-averting
decision support
expcted return
life saving
optimization
optimum life-saving strategy
probability of death and survival
risk
safety
utility models
Opis:
This paper deals with life-saving decisions. The decision maker can buy a number of death-averting devices or services which increase his safety S at the expense of the discounted future consumption R. The safety and consumption depend parametrically on the death probability p and the probability reducing strategy x, i.e. S(p/x); R(p/x). The two-factors utility function U(S, R) is used to find the optimum strategy x = [...]. which maximizes U(x). One can show that the unique strategy [...] exists and can be effectively derived. Many applications of proposed methodology are indicated.
Źródło:
Control and Cybernetics; 2000, 29, 1; 167-178
0324-8569
Pojawia się w:
Control and Cybernetics
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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