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    Tytuł:
    Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland using weather-dependent trend models
    Autorzy:
    Gorzelańczyk, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2203615.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
    Tematy:
    traffic accident
    forecasting
    trend model
    weather conditions
    Opis:
    Every year a very large number of people die on the roads. From year to year, the value decreases, there are still a very high number of them. The pandemic has reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to know under which weather conditions the highest number of road accidents occur, and to know the forecast of accidents according to the prevailing weather conditions for the coming years, in order to be able to do everything possible to minimize the number of road accidents. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the prevailing weather conditions. The research was divided into two parts. The first was the analysis of annual data from the Police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland in 2001-2021, and on this basis the forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2031 was determined. The second part of the research, dealt with monthly data from 2007-2021. Again, the analyzed forecast for the period January 2022-December 2023 was determined. The results of the study indicate that we can still expect a decline in the number of accidents in the coming years, which is particularly evident when analyzing annual data. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. The research was conducted in MS Excel, using selected trend models.
    Źródło:
    Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn; 2023, 26(1); 57--76
    1505-4675
    2083-4527
    Pojawia się w:
    Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Impact of information on the number of traffic accidents on the outcome of the forecast
    Autorzy:
    Gorzelanczyk, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22672802.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
    Tematy:
    forecasting
    traffic accident
    number of time series elements
    mean absolute percentage error MAPE
    Opis:
    Every year, more and more vehicles appear on the world's roads. This leads to increased traffic on the roads. Road accidents have become a rapidly growing threat. They cause loss of human life and economic assets. This is due to the rapid growth of the world's human population and the very rapid development of motorization. The main problem in forecasting and analyzing data on the number of traffic accidents is the small size of the dataset that can be used for analysis in this regard. And on the other hand, road accidents cause, globally, millions of deaths and injuries annually is their density in time and space. It is worth noting that the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents. However, the value is still very high. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of information on the number of traffic accidents on the outcome of the forecast. To this end, using historical statistical data, the forecast of the number of traffic accidents for the following years was determined, and how this variability of the input data affects the value of the average percentage error of the forecast was determined. Based on the study, it can be concluded that a smaller number of input data, historical data on the number of accidents, instead of 32 years, 7 years, makes the determination of the forecast of the number of accidents for subsequent years, is at a satisfactory level, the average absolute percentage error of MAPE less than 7%. The article concludes with the determination of the forecast for future years. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained.
    Źródło:
    Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn; 2023, 26(1); 219--230
    1505-4675
    2083-4527
    Pojawia się w:
    Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The use of neural networks to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland
    Autorzy:
    Gorzelańczyk, Piotr
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27311331.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Politechnika Śląska. Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej
    Tematy:
    road accident
    pandemic
    forecasting
    neural networks
    wypadek drogowy
    pandemia
    prognozowanie
    sieci neuronowe
    Opis:
    Every year, a large number of traffic accidents occur on Polish roads. However, the pandemic of recent years has reduced the number of these accidents, although the number is still very high. For this reason, all measures should be taken to reduce this number. This article aims to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland. Thus, using Statistica software, the annual data on the number of road accidents in Poland were analyzed. Based on actual past data, a forecast was made for the future, for the period 2022-2040. Forecasting the number of accidents in Poland was conducted using selected neural network models. The results show that a reduction in the number of traffic accidents is likely. The choice of the number of random samples (learning, testing and validation) affects the results obtained.
    Źródło:
    Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska; 2023, 118; 45--54
    0209-3324
    2450-1549
    Pojawia się w:
    Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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