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    Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2
    Tytuł:
    Macroeconomic stability as the condition for Bulgaria to join the euro area
    Autorzy:
    Moździerz, Anna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446419.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    macroeconomic equilibrium
    macroeconomic stability
    monetary union
    convergence criteria
    Opis:
    Research background: The subject of research is the macroeconomic situation of Bulgaria in the context of the country's preparations for joining the euro area. In 2018, the Bulgarian government approved a plan of preparations covering the period until the end of June 2019, which assumes that the country will join the ERM II mechanism in July 2019, and the euro area on 1 January 2022. Bulgaria meets four nominal convergence criteria regarding inflation, long-term interest rate, budget deficit and public debt. The national currency is pegged to the euro under the currency board arrangement. Despite this, the implementation of this optimistic scenario may be difficult because since the 2007 crisis, the European institutions pay more attention to macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of convergence. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the factors destabilising macroeconomic equilibrium in Bulgaria, which are a potential obstacle to the adoption of the euro by Bulgaria on schedule. Methods: The research was based on the changes in selected macroeconomic indicators, as well as on the method used by the European Commission to detect macroeconomic imbalances. The observation and analysis covered the 2007?2018 period.  Findings & Value added: The research results indicate that the low level of socio-economic convergence of Bulgaria and macroeconomic imbalances may delay its membership in the monetary union. Therefore, while respecting the country's aspirations to join the euro area, one cannot ignore the risk of another destabilisation of the euro area. 
    Źródło:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2019, 14, 2; 295-315
    1689-765X
    2353-3293
    Pojawia się w:
    Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Czy trwałe wypełnianie kryteriów konwergencji z Mastricht musi zapewnić korzyści gospodarce?
    Is Meeting the Convergence Criteria from Maastricht Always Beneficial for the Economy?
    Является ли твердое выполнение Маастрихтских критериев конвергенции гарантией обеспечения экономической выгоды?
    Autorzy:
    Osiatyński, Jerzy
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1029544.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    convergence criteria
    macroeconomic equilibrium
    economic growth
    критерии конвергенции
    экономическое равновесие
    экономический рост
    Opis:
    Until the world financial crisis of 2007–2008, the convergence criteria contained in the Maastricht Treaty have been commonly considered beneficial for countries that persistently observed them, although there is no economic theory from which those criteria and their specific numerical values could be derived from. Also in Poland an overwhelming majority of economists, policy makers and economic commentators claims that meeting the nominal convergence criteria, and especially the fiscal ones, will be beneficial for the Polish economy. While accepting the need to ensure consistency between fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the constrains with regard to increasing the public debt/GDP ratios in the present-day capitalism, this paper shows that the claim regarding the beneficial effects of observing those criteria is debatable and under some conditions simply wrong. In a country where there is a tendency for private savings to exceed private investments, combined with a lasting current account deficit, restricting the allowed budget deficits to merely structural deficits will depress GDP dynamics. Rigid observation of the deficit limit will then bring lasting harm to the economy. A similar conclusion is drawn regarding the public debt/GDP criterion. As regards the inflation convergence criterion, the paper argues that the problem may arise here not in relation to the objective of the policy but the particular instruments of achieving inflation targets. When the main instrument of achieving the inflation target is a restrictive monetary and fiscal policy, leading to high unemployment and slow wage growth, this way of controlling inflation becomes economically and socially extremely costly. For avoiding high permanent unemployment, setting less ambitions inflation targets may be more advisable.
    До финансового кризиса 2007-2008 гг. зафиксированные в Маастрихтском договоре критерии конвергенции повсеместно считались бесспорно выгодными для соблюдающих их стран, хотя ни эти критерии, ни их конкретные величины не имели обоснования в экономической теории. В Польше большинство экономистов, экономических политиков и публицистов также считает, что быстрое выполнение номинальных критериев Маастрихтского договора, особенно фискальных, будет выгодно для польской экономики. Соглашаясь с необходимостью обеспечения гармонии между денежной и фискальной политикой, а также ограничения показателя соотношения между публичным долгом и ВВП в современном капитализме, автор статьи доказывает, что мнение о безусловных выгодах от соблюдения этих критериев является как минимум дискуссионным, а в некоторых случаях ошибочным.
    Źródło:
    Ekonomista; 2014, 2; 275-286
    0013-3205
    2299-6184
    Pojawia się w:
    Ekonomista
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2

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