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Tytuł:
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068960.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
extreme weather hazard states
maritime ferry
Opis:
The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 41--46
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monte Carlo simulation of climate-weather change process at maritime ferry operating area
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/298021.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
Tematy:
Monte Carlo simulation
climate-weather change process
critical infrastructure operating area
Opis:
The paper presents a computer simulation technique applied to generating the climate-weather change process at Baltic Sea restricted waters and its characteristics evaluation. The Monte Carlo method is used under the assumption of semi-Markov model of this process. A procedure and an algorithm of climate-weather change process’ realizations generating and its characteristics evaluation are proposed to be applied in C# program preparation. Using this program, the climate-weather change process’ characteristics are predicted for the maritime ferry operating area. Namely, the mean values and standard deviations of the unconditional sojourn times, the limit values of transient probabilities and the mean values of total sojourn times for the fixed time at the climate-weather states are determined.
Źródło:
Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn; 2018, 21(1); 5-17
1505-4675
2083-4527
Pojawia się w:
Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068838.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
identification
climate-weather change process
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 85--106
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for maritime ferry operating area
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068854.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
identification
prediction
maritime ferry operating area
Opis:
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry operating area. For the considered ferry operating area, there are distinguished four different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climateweather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 129--134
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for critical infrastructure operating area
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068981.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather states
climate-weather change process
modelling
extreme weather hazards
Opis:
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. To describe the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution, the chimney distribution and the Gamma distribution are suggested and introduced.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 149--154
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068975.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
extreme weather hazard states
port oil transportation syste
Opis:
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 31--40
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system operating area
Autorzy:
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068856.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
identification
prediction
piping operating area
extreme weather hazards
Opis:
The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system operating area. For the considered piping operating area, there are distinguished three different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 107--112
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Minimization of Operation Cost of Critical Infrastructure Network with Cascading Effects Considering Climate-Weather Change Influence
Autorzy:
Blokus-Roszkowska, A.
Kołowrocki, K.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068787.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
critical infrastructure
operation process
climate-weather change process
operation cost minimization
Opis:
In the paper optimization of operation process and minimization of operation cost for interconnected and interdependent critical infrastructure (CI) networks with cascading effects at variable operation conditions related to the climate-weather change are proposed. A multistate series network with assets dependent according to local load sharing (LLS) rule is analyzed and optimization of operation and safety of CI network with the LLS rule is introduced. For such CI network, the optimal transient probabilities that minimize the mean value of the total operation costs are found. Finally, cost analysis of CI network operation impacted by climate-weather change is presented in case the CI network is non-repairable and in case it is repairable after exceeding its critical safety state.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2018, 9, 1; 71--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068988.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of prediction of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 143--148
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification and prediction of maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards
Autorzy:
Kuligowska, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068836.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
identification
prediction
operating environment threats
maritime ferry
Opis:
The paper is concerned with an application of the model of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards to identification and prediction of this process for the maritime ferry. There are investigated four processes for the considered maritime ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the maritime ferry operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the ferry processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the ferry processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the ferry processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating areas.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 2; 145--156
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system operating at under water Baltic Sea area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068999.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 47--56
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068984.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 73--80
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068991.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 65--72
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards of port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area
Autorzy:
Jakusik, E.
Kołowrocki, K.
Kuligowska, E.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Torbicki, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068953.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area are presented.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 57--64
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Identification methods and procedures of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
Autorzy:
Kołowrocki, K.
Soszyńska-Budny, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069003.pdf
Data publikacji:
2016
Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:
climate-weather change process
semi-Markov model
modelling
identification
transportation system
Opis:
In the paper, there are presented the methods for identification of the critical infrastructure operation process on the basis of statistical data coming from this process realizations related to the critical infrastructure operating environment threats. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the critical infrastructure operation process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional critical infrastructure operation process sojourn times at the particular operation states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process straying at the particular operation states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process transitions between the operation states. Moreover, there are given formulae for the estimator of unknown parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states. Namely, the parameters of the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull’s distribution and the chimney distribution are estimated using the statistical methods such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is described and proposed to be applied to verifying the hypotheses about these distributions choice validity. The procedure of statistical data sets uniformity analysis based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed to be applied to the empirical conditional sojourn times at the operation states coming from different realizations of the same critical infrastructure operation process.
Źródło:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2016, 7, 3; 155--168
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 22

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