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Tytuł:
Analysis of Historical Precipitation in Semi-Arid Areas – Case Study of the Amman Zarqa Basin
Autorzy:
Shatanawi, Khaldoun
Mohammad, Alsharifa Hind
Odeh, Taleb
Arafeh, Mazen
Halalsheh, Maha
Kassab, Ghada
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2173270.pdf
Data publikacji:
2022
Wydawca:
Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
Tematy:
precipitation
climate change
standard precipitation index
SPI
semi-arid
Opis:
Climate change is determined as a severe threat to water resource availability in Semi-Arid Areas. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the drought trends to develop and sustain water resources. This study evaluates the effects of climate change in Jordan by investigating the long-term precipitation trends in the Amman Zarqa Basin over the water from 1971 to 2016. Daily precipitation data were gathered to analyze different rainfall stations over and around the basin. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) variations were investigated at monthly intervals. Control charts, hypothesis testing, T-test, differences of variances, and trend analysis were used to determine climatic trends. The analysis results showed that 2003 marks an acceleration point in the precipitation decrease rate; therefore, the SPI showed a decrease and a high DI for the area in the tested year 2005 and 2010 to be a mild drought in the following years. Additionally, a change in the precipitation pattern was observed as seasonal precipitation contribution varied for the pre-2003 period compared to the post-2003 period. The SPI results show that 1995 reflects the higher drought periods, and the following years showed mild drought events; nevertheless, the year 2016 displayed lower drought events, reflecting wet events.
Źródło:
Journal of Ecological Engineering; 2022, 23, 8; 101--111
2299-8993
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Ecological Engineering
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey
Autorzy:
Yaman, Barbaros
Ertuğrul, Mertol
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1841778.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie. Wydawnictwo AGH
Tematy:
climate change
homogeneity
precipitation
temperature
trend analysis
Opis:
Studies associated with climate change and variability are of great importance at both the global and local scale in the global climate crisis. In this study, change-point detection and trend analysis were carried out on mean, maximum, minimum air temperatures and total precipitation based on monthly, seasonal and annual scale in Bartın province located in the western Black Sea Region of Turkey. For this aim, 4-different homogeneity tests (von Neumann test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test and standard normal homogeneity test) for changepoint detection, Modified Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s innovative trend test for trend analysis, and Sen’s slope test for the magnitude estimation of trends were used. According to the test results, the summer temperatures in particular show increasing trends at the 0.001 significance level. Mean maximum temperature in August, mean minimum temperature in June and August, and mean temperature in July and August are in increasing trend at the 0.001 significance level. Over a 51 year period (1965–2015) in Bartın province, the highest rate of change per decade in air temperatures is in August (0.55°C for Tmax, 0.46°C for Tmin and 0.43°C for Tmean) based on Sen’s slope. However, the study showed that apart from October precipitation, there is no significant trend in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in Bartın. Increasing trends in mentioned climate variables are also visually very clear and strong in Şen’s innovative trend method, and they comply with the statistical results. As a result, the study revealed some evidence that temperatures will increase in the future in Bartın and its environs.
Źródło:
Geology, Geophysics and Environment; 2020, 46, 3; 223-237
2299-8004
2353-0790
Pojawia się w:
Geology, Geophysics and Environment
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Spatiotemporal analysis of some extreme rainfall indices over Iraq (1981–2017)
Autorzy:
Al-Lami, Alaa M.
Al-Timimi, Yaseen K.
Al-Shamarti, Hasanain K. A.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/35533142.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
extreme precipitation
RClimDex
ETCCDI
climate change
OLS
Iraq
Opis:
Extreme rainfall is one of the environmental hazards with disastrous effects on the human environment. Water resources management is very vulnerable to any changes in rainfall intensities. A spatiotemporal analysis is essential for study the impact of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall. In this study, daily rainfall data for 36 meteorological stations in Iraq during 1981–2017 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of 10 extreme rainfall indices using RClimDex package. These indices were classified into two categories: rainfall total (PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p, R99p, RX1day, and RX5day) and rainfall days (CDD, CWD, R10, and R20). Depending on the mean annual precipitation data, the study area was divided into three climatic zones to examine the time series features of those 10 indices. Results showed a tendency to increase in precipitation toward the northwestern part of Iraq, and more than 70% of stations achieved a positive trend for most indices. The most frequent negative trend appeared in eight stations distributed in the western and southern parts of Iraq, namely (Heet, Haditha, Anah, Rutba, Qaim, Nukheb, Najaf, and Fao). A significant positive trend appeared obviously in PRCPTOT and R95p with a rate of 0.1–4.6 and 0.5–2.7 mm per year, respectively. Additionally, the least trend increasing appeared in all precipitation days indices specifically in R10 and R20. Time series analyses revealed a positive trend in all regions under study, except SDII in the southern region. The most significant rate of change was noticed in regions one and two (northern and middle parts of Iraq), particularly for PRCPTOT and R95p 3.26 and 2.45 mm per day, respectively. Only the northern and eastern regions of Iraq experienced a high probability of significant extreme rainfall.
Źródło:
Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences; 2021, 30, 2; 221-235
1732-9353
Pojawia się w:
Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010
Autorzy:
Grzywna, Antoni
Bochniak, Andrzej
Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Agnieszka
Krużel, Joanna
Jóźwiakowski, Krzysztof
Wałęga, Andrzej
Ciupak, Agnieszka
Mazur, Andrzej
Obroślak, Radomir
Serafin, Artur
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292589.pdf
Data publikacji:
2020
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
climate change
kriging
Polska
precipitation
spatial variability
water resources
Opis:
The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The average annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error (ME), mean standardized prediction error (MSE), and root mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSE) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error (RMSE) and average standard error (ASE) reach values well below 100.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2020, 46; 105-111
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Próba analizy związku opadów o dużych sumach dobowych z cyrkulacją atmosferyczną na wybranych stacjach Arktyki Atlantyckiej w okresie 1981-2010
Trial analysis of high efficiency atmospheric precipitation with respect to atmospheric circulation in selected stations of the Atlantic part of the Arctic in 1981-2010
Autorzy:
Muskała, P.
Migała, K.
Korzystka, M.
Piasecki, J.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/261065.pdf
Data publikacji:
2013
Wydawca:
Stowarzyszenie Klimatologów Polskich
Tematy:
opad atmosferyczny
Arktyka
Atlantyk Północny
opad o dużej sumie dobowej
zmiany klimatu
atmospheric precipitation
Arctic
North Atlantic
high efficiency precipitation
climate change
Opis:
Opad atmosferyczny o dużej wydajności, szczególnie w odniesieniu do zmian klimatu, jest jednym z ważnych czynników wpływających na funkcjonowanie geoekosystemów środowiska obszarów polarnych. Celem niniejszego opracowania była analiza dobowych sum opadu atmosferycznego na dziewięciu wybranych stacjach synoptycznych atlantyckiego sektora Arktyki w wieloleciu 1981-2010. Dla całego analizowanego obszaru stwierdzono istotny udział opadów o dobowych sumach przekraczających 10 mm w rocznych i miesięcznych sumach opadu. Na części analizowanych stacji (Hornsund, Ny Alesund) odnotowano niewielki wzrost częstości występowania opadów o dużych sumach dobowych, jednak na podstawie przeanalizowanych danych nie można jednoznacznie stwierdzić wzrostu w odniesieniu do wszystkich analizowanych stacji, a tym bardziej do całego atlantyckiego wycinka Arktyki. Występowanie opadów o dużym natężeniu wiązało się z konkretnymi typami cyrkulacji atmosferycznej. Dla większości stacji najbardziej opadonośna była cyrkulacja z sektora południowego.
Contemporary climate change mark out intensively in polar regions. Due to some climatologists one of the most important effects of climate change is increase of frequency and intensity of atmospheric precipitation. It has a significant meaning for functioning of polar geoecosystems, especially for glacier ice mass balance, duration and height of snow cover, intensity of hydrological and geomorphological processes as well as the animated environment. The research objective of this study is trial analysis of high efficiency precipitation events in nine chosen synoptic stations in the Atlantic part of the Arctic in period 1981-2010 with particular focus on the first decade of the 21st century as well analyses of these cases in terms of synoptic conditions. Significant contribution of high efficiency precipitation in monthly and yearly precipitation sums have been found in all analysed stations. In some of the analysed stations there was a slight increase of frequency of high efficiency precipitation noticed, however basing on the analysed data it is impossible to explicitly show an increasing trend neither in all analysed stations nor the more in the whole Atlantic Arctic. Correlation between high efficiency precipitation and atmospheric circulation types was very clear. For majority of stations the southern circulation was crucial for high precipitation (humid air masses inflow). In some cases there was clearly visible role of location of the station and influence of orography on the precipitation field. It is important to notice the quality of available databases and considerable difficulties in obtaining reliable, complete and homogenous precipitation data, what makes all analyses of this climatological element in polar areas difficult. The results shown in this study should be regarded as preliminary and basis for further discussion on signalized problems.
Źródło:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej; 2013, 23; 107-120
1234-0715
Pojawia się w:
Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia 1961–2008
Autorzy:
Paadam, K.
Post, P.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48285.pdf
Data publikacji:
2011
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
air temperature
climate change
cold period
Estonia
extreme precipitation
global temperature
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
precipitation
surface temperature
temporal variability
water vapour
Opis:
Daily precipitation data from 40 stations are used to investigate the temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia. The period covered is 1961–2008, characterized by a uniformity of observational practice. Precipitation extremes are quantified by yearly and seasonal values of two different parameters: daycount indices based on 95th and 99th percentile thresholds. Trend significance was assessed with the Mann-Kendall test. Results show that the frequency of both indices has increased. No significant negative trends were found. An increase of 15.8 events over the 99th percentile per decade was observed for Estonia. The indices selected for this study may be called ‘soft’ climate extremes, but the number of such events is large enough to allow for meaningful trend analysis in a roughly half-century long time series.
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2011, 53, (1-TI)
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset
Autorzy:
Danilovich, Irina
Geyer, Beate
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2014153.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
climate change
meteorological observations
projections
scenario
air temperature
precipitation
snow
wind
Opis:
This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.
Źródło:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2021, 9, 1-2; 1-30
2299-3835
2353-5652
Pojawia się w:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Flood risk and vulnerability in the changing climate
Ryzyko i wrażliwość na powodzie w zmieniającym się klimacie
Autorzy:
Kundzewicz, Z.W.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/81497.pdf
Data publikacji:
2008
Wydawca:
Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Tematy:
flood risk
risk
vulnerability
climate change
heavy precipitation
flood protection
flood preparedness
Opis:
Floods are a natural phenomenon, striking the humankind since the dawn of history. Yet, recent fl ood damages are dramatically higher than before, so that it is necessary to seek interpretation of this fact. River fl ooding is a complex phenomenon which can be affected by changes coupled to physical, terrestrial, climate and socio-economic systems. The climate track in the observed changes is likely, even if human encroaching into the harm’s way and increase in the damage potential in fl oodplains can be the dominating factors in many river basins. Increase in heavy precipitation has been observed, with consequences to increasing risk of rain-induced fl ooding. Projections for the future, based on regional climate models, indicate increase of fl ood risk and vulnerability in many areas. Impacts on urban fl ooding, in a multi-factor context are examined. The present contribution is following the global IPCC perspective, in the context of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the IPCC Technical Paper on Water, where ZWK was a Coordinating Lead Author.
Powodzie są zjawiskiem naturalnym, które nęka ludzkość od początku historii. Jednak w ostatnich latach straty powodziowe są znacznie wyższe niż kiedyś, więc trzeba szukać interpretacji tego faktu. Powodzie rzeczne są złożonym procesem, na który wpływać mogą zmiany związane z systemami fizycznymi, klimatycznymi i społeczno-ekonomicznymi. Udział klimatu w obserwowanych zmianach jest prawdopodobny, nawet jeśli wkraczanie ludzi na tereny zagrożone powodzią i wzrost potencjału strat na obszarach zalewowych mogą być w wielu zlewniach rzecznych czynnikiem dominującym. Zaobserwowano wzrost silnych opadów, a w konsekwencji – rosnące ryzyko wezbrań deszczowych. Projekcje na przyszłość, oparte na regionalnych modelach klimatu, wskazują na wzrost ryzyka i wrażliwości na powodzie w wielu regionach. Rozważono konsekwencje dla wezbrań na obszarach zurbanizowanych, w kontekście wielu czynników. Obecny artykuł przedstawia globalną perspektywę IPCC, w kontekście Czwartego Raportu IPCC oraz technicznego dokumentu dotyczącego zmian klimatu i wody, gdzie ZWK pełnił rolę koordynatora i autora prowadzącego.
Źródło:
Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation; 2008, 39
0208-5771
Pojawia się w:
Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Spatiotemporal pattern of degradation in arid mangrove forests of the Northern Persian Gulf
Autorzy:
Etemadi, H.
Smoak, J.M.
Abbasi, E.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2079008.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
climate change
mangrove ecosystem
extreme temperature
precipitation
salinity
mangrove forest
Persian Gulf
Opis:
Climate change is a major threat to mangrove ecosystems worldwide but particularly those in arid regions that exist near the limit of tolerance to extremes in temperature, precipitation, and salinity. Here we examine Persian Gulf arid mangrove ecosystems from the Nayband and Mond Protected Area in the south-west region of Iran to determine the ability of tidal mangrove forests to respond to rapid urban and industrial development, sea-level rise (SLR), and temperature and precipitation changes. Sea level has been rising by approximately 4 mm yr−1 in this region and might be intensified by subsidence on the order of 1—2 mm yr−1 due to natural phenomena as well as anthropogenic activities associated with fluid extraction. We use remote sensing along with statistical analysis to effectively monitor mangrove area changes over 60 years and infer responses to past environmental trends. Our spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates expansion in some areas and reduction in others. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) results indicate that Nayband mangroves are healthy and expanded between the years of 1990 and 2002 which could be in response to rising temperatures and above-average precipitation. However, NDVI changes after 2002 demonstrate the mangrove health and area have decreased which could be in response to industrial and urban development that occurred immediately after 1997. The natural stresses in this extreme system are been exacerbated by climate change and anthropogenic pressures as such it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning.
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2021, 63, 1; 99-114
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Assessing the impact of climate change on discharge in the Horyn River basin by analyzing precipitation and temperature data
Autorzy:
Lobodzinskyi, Oleksandr
Vasylenko, Yevheniia
Koshkina, Olha
Nabyvanets, Yurii
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2201938.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023
Wydawca:
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Tematy:
climate change
precipitation
hydrograph
air temperature
Thiessen polygons
Horyn River basin
water discharge
Opis:
It is important to investigate the hydrological consequences of current climate change. Hydrological responses to climate warming and wetter conditions include changes in discharge (frequency, amplitude, and volume). This paper describes current climate change and its impact on hydrological flow within the Horyn River basin. Daily air temperature and precipitation data obtained from the 17 meteorological stations located in and nearby the Horyn River basin, in combination with hydrological data (such as daily water discharges obtained from 9 water gauges), were used for the analysis of climate variability and its hydrological consequences. Analyses of meteorological variables and water discharges are crucial for the assessment of long-term changes in the river regime. Thiessen polygons were used to determine the area of influence of assigned specific meteorological stations, which affect the river’s catchments within the Horyn River basin. As a result of the trend analysis, it was observed that discharge within the Horyn River basin decreased over time. These results were congruent with the trends of precipitation data and air temperature data of the stations determined by the Thiessen polygons and basin boundaries. To understand current changes in the daily flow in the basin, changes in air temperature and precipitation for the period 1991-2020 were compared with the period of the climatic norm (1961-1990). A similar analysis was done for daily water discharges. Increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation in the current period led to a significant decrease in discharges in the Horyn River basin, especially during the spring flood period.
Źródło:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2023, 11, 1; 1--14
2299-3835
2353-5652
Pojawia się w:
Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Growth response of different tree species (oaks, beech and pine) from SE Europe to precipitation over time
Autorzy:
Stojanović, Dejan B.
Levanič, Tom
Matović, Bratislav
Stjepanović, Stefan
Orlović, Saša
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/956967.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Dendrologii PAN
Tematy:
standardized precipitation index (spi)
climate change
tree mortality
quercus sp.
fagus sylvatica
pinus sylvestris
Opis:
Changing climatic conditions can have various consequences for forest ecosystems, from increasing frequencies of forest fires, ice and windstorm events to pathogen outbreaks and mass mortalities. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was chosen for the evaluation of drought impact on the radial growth of trees after extensive preliminary testing of various calculated monthly climate parameters from the CARPATCLIM database. SPI was calculated for periods between 3 and 36 months for different sites (lowland and mountainous parts of Serbia, Southeast Europe), from which Quercus robur, Q. cerris, Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris samples were acquired. Bootstrapped Pearson’s correlations between SPI monthly indices and radial growth of tree species were calculated. We found that 12-month SPI for summer months may be a good predictor of positive and negative growth of different species at different sites. The strongest positive correlations for five of six tree-ring width chronologies were between 12-month June and 14-month September SPI, which implies that high growth rates can be expected when the autumn of the previous year, and winter, spring and summer of the current year, are well supplied with precipitation, and vice versa (low precipitation in given period/low growth rates).
Źródło:
Dendrobiology; 2018, 79; 97-110
1641-1307
Pojawia się w:
Dendrobiology
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Analysis of future climate scenarios and their impact on agriculture in eastern Arkansas, United States
Analiza scenariuszy klimatycznych i ich wpływ na rolnictwo we wschodniej części Arkansas
Autorzy:
Magugu, J. W.
Feng, S.
Huang, Q.
Zhang, Y.
West, G. H.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/292796.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
agriculture
climate change
climate scenarios
precipitation
temperature
opady
rolnictwo
scenariusze klimatyczne
temperatura
zmiany klimatu
Opis:
Impact of climate change on crop growth is dynamic and difficult to quantify due to heterogeneity of the associated effects and their interactions within the Earth system. The main objective of this study is to establish how future climate change might affect agriculture, through an assessment of temperature and precipitation driven parameters. These include percentage number of rainy days with extreme precipitation, percentage of extreme precipitation relative to wet days, first fall frost days, last spring frost days, growing degree days, growing season length and the total precipitation. Results show modest increase in total precipitation with a slight increase in extreme precipitation, representing up to 2.2% increase by 2060 under representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. There would be late first fall frost days, early last spring frost days and increased growing season length by up to 2 weeks in 2060. The growing degree days are projected to increase under all scenarios for all crops, with cotton showing the largest increase of up to 37% relative to the baseline period.
Wpływ zmian klimatu na wzrost upraw jest dynamiczny i trudny do ilościowej oceny z powodu różnorodności powiązanych efektów i ich interakcji w całym systemie Ziemi. Głównym celem badań prezentowanych w niniejszej pracy było ustalenie, jak zmiany klimatu w przyszłości mogą wpłynąć na rolnictwo, na podstawie oceny parametrów związanych z temperaturą i opadami. Analizowano następujące parametry: udział (w %) dni deszczowych z ekstremalnym opadem, udział ekstremalnych opadów w stosunku do opadów ogółem, pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem, stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym, długość sezonu wegetacyjnego, i sumę opadów. Wyniki wykazują umiarkowany wzrost całkowitych opadów i niewielki wzrost opadów ekstremalnych – do 2,2% do roku 2060 wg scenariusza Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). W 2060 roku pierwsze jesienne dni z mrozem wystąpią później, ostatnie wiosenne dni z mrozem wystąpią wcześniej, a sezon wegetacyjny wydłuży się o ok. 2 tygodnie. Zgodnie ze wszystkimi scenariuszami przewiduje się, że liczba stopniodni w sezonie wegetacyjnym zwiększy się dla wszystkich upraw, a największy przyrost (maksymalnie o 37%) w stosunku do okresu bazowego prognozuje się dla upraw bawełny.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2018, 37; 97-112
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Climate-related trends and meteorological conditions in the Porsanger fjord, Norway
Autorzy:
Cieszynska, A.
Stramska, M.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/48950.pdf
Data publikacji:
2018
Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Tematy:
meteorological condition
wind speed
air temperature
precipitation
climate change
seasonal variability
Arctic environment
Porsanger fjord
Norway
Źródło:
Oceanologia; 2018, 60, 3
0078-3234
Pojawia się w:
Oceanologia
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
The impact of precipitation on the groundwater of coal waste dump
Autorzy:
Suponik, Tomasz
Franke, Dawid
Frączek, Robert
Nowińska, Katarzyna
Pierzyna, Piotr
Różański, Zenon
Wrona, Paweł
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1839068.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021
Wydawca:
Główny Instytut Górnictwa
Tematy:
climate change
precipitation
groundwater
coal waste dump
contaminants
zmiany klimatyczne
opady atmosferyczne
wody gruntowe
składowisko odpadów powęglowych
zanieczyszczenia
Opis:
The aim of the study was to assess the effect of climate change, mainly higher and lower precipitation, on the intensity of the impact of a coal waste dump on groundwater. The analysis used meteorological data for the Katowice region in 2002-2020 as well as data on the height of the groundwater table in the vicinity of the coal waste dump, and data on physicochemical parameters and chemical composition of groundwater in 2004-2020. Based on the analyses, it was found that the periods of drought in the Silesian Voivodeship, located in the south of Poland, occurred mainly in spring, while periods of excessive short-term rainfall in summer. The period of excessive annual precipitation occurred between 2007 and 2010, followed by a long period of dry or very dry years that lasted until 2016. During the period of excess annual precipitation, the leachate from the waste dump caused a decrease in the pH of groundwater from ca. 5 to 2.50, while an increase in electrolytic conductivity (EC) and the concentration of sulphates and zinc from ca. 1300 ms/cm, 100 mg/L, 5 mg/L to 5100 ms/cm, 3890 mg/L, 18.5 mg/L, respectively.
Źródło:
Journal of Sustainable Mining; 2021, 20, 1; 13-19
2300-1364
2300-3960
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Sustainable Mining
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Drought monitoring in the Seybouse basin (Algeria) over the last decades
Monitorowanie suszy w basenie Seybouse w Algierii w ciągu ostatnich dziesięcioleci
Autorzy:
Khezazna, A.
Amarchi, H.
Derdous, O.
Bousakhria, F.
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/293318.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Tematy:
climate change
drought
GIS
Seybouse watershed
standardized precipitation index (SPI)
standaryzowany indeks opadu (SPI)
susza
zlewnia Seybouse
zmiany klimatu
Opis:
Algeria is amongst the African countries most affected by climate change impacts especially by drought which caused considerable economic losses in the past decades. In this paper, drought monitoring for the period between 1970 and 2011 was conducted in the Seybouse watershed by analysing annual rainfall data in terms of variability and trends along with the calculation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The results indicated important inter-annual rainfall fluctuation and a significant increasing trend. The estimated drought indices indicated that the Seybouse watershed experienced in the past a long dry period with a moderate severity followed by a long wet period at the majority of the study area. Moreover, the interpolation of the standardized precipitation indices (SPI) on the entire Seybouse basin in GIS allowed visualizing and evaluating the spatial- -temporal evolution of drought in the region which should help the decision-makers in the management of water resources, agriculture and other activities that may be affected by drought.
Algieria jest jednym z krajów Afryki najsilniej doświadczanych przez wpływ zmian klimatu, w szczególności przez susze, które w minionych dziesięcioleciach powodowały znaczne straty gospodarcze. W prezentowanych badaniach przeprowadzono monitoring susz w latach 1970–2011 w zlewni rzeki Seybouse, analizując zmienność i trendy rocznych opadów oraz obliczając standaryzowany indeks opadów (SPI). Wyniki dowodzą dużej zmienności opadów między latami i ukazują istotną tendencję wzrostową. Oszacowane wskaźniki suszy wskazują, że zlewnia Seybouse doświadczała w przeszłości długich okresów umiarkowanej suszy, po których następował długi okres wilgotnej pogody na większości badanych obszarów. Ponadto, interpolacja standaryzowanego wskaźnika opadu na całą zlewnię Sebouse za pomocą GIS umożliwiła wizualizację i ocenę rozwoju suszy w regionie. Powinno to pomóc decydentom w zarządzaniu zasobami wodnymi, rolnictwem i innymi rodzajami działalności, które mogą być zależne od suszy.
Źródło:
Journal of Water and Land Development; 2017, 33; 79-88
1429-7426
2083-4535
Pojawia się w:
Journal of Water and Land Development
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 19

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