- Tytuł:
- Demographics, Retirement Age, and Real Interest Rates in Poland
- Autorzy:
-
Acedański, Jan
Włodarczyk, Julia - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076213.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2018
- Wydawca:
- Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
- Tematy:
-
demographic transition
ageing
old-age dependency ratio
real interest rates
economic growth - Opis:
- Changes in the size and the age structure of a population have a great impact on an economy, especially on national savings and capital flows. Poland’s population, although still relatively young when compared to other developed countries, is expected to experience accelerated ageing and decline in forthcoming decades. In this paper, we assess the effects of these processes for Polish economy. Using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks and a variable retirement age, we simulate dynamics of real interest rates, main macro aggregates as well as net foreign assets to GDP. We show that rapid ageing will reduce the interest rate gap between Poland and the developed countries by 1.3-2 p.p. We also document a strong positive relationship between interest rates and the retirement age and find that the decline in the interest rate in Poland is primarily driven by the surviving probability shock.
- Źródło:
-
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2018, 4; 355-385
2080-0886
2080-119X - Pojawia się w:
- Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł