- Tytuł:
- An expert elicitation analysis for vessel allision risk near the offshore wind farm by using fuzzy rule-based bayesian network
- Autorzy:
-
Yu, Q.
Liu, K. - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/117215.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2019
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Wydział Nawigacyjny
- Tematy:
-
offshore wind farms
expert elicitation analysis
Bayesian network model
fuzzy rule-based bayesian network
Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA)
Bayesian Networks
vessel allision risk
risk analysis - Opis:
- This paper develops an expert based framework for analysing and synthesising the ship allision risk near the offshore wind farm (OWF) on the basis of a generic Fuzzy Bayesian network and FMEA analysis. This framework is specifically intended to overcome the difficulty of using traditional risk assessment methods in OWF allision. Under the introduced framework, subjective belief degrees are assigned to model the incompleteness encountered in establishing the knowledge base. The fuzzy transformation technology is then used to introduce all judgements results under various situations. Fully, a Bayesian network is established to aggregate all relevant attributes to the conclusion and to prioritise potential allision risk level of each ship categories. A series of case studies of different ship categories are studied to illustrate the application of the proposed framework. Results show that the fishing vessel and the service vessel have a higher allision risk than the merchant vessel due to insufficient risk detection. The collision consequence of the tanker is significantly higher than other types of vessel. The framework facilitates subjective risk assessment when historical failure data is not available in their practice, which provides support to OWF-safeguarding and decision-making.
- Źródło:
-
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation; 2019, 13, 4; 831-837
2083-6473
2083-6481 - Pojawia się w:
- TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł