- Tytuł:
- ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries
- Autorzy:
- Kufel, Tadeusz
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22444425.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2020
- Wydawca:
- Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
- Tematy:
-
Covid-19 epidemic
ARIMA model
forecasting
infection control
non-pharmaceutical intervention - Opis:
- Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.
- Źródło:
-
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2020, 15, 2; 181-204
1689-765X
2353-3293 - Pojawia się w:
- Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł