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Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2
Tytuł:
Modelling the occupational and educational choices of young people in Poland using Bayesian multinomial logit models
Autorzy:
Grzenda, Wioletta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827554.pdf
Data publikacji:
2021-09-06
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
young people
labour market
education
multinomial logit model
Bayesian approach
Opis:
Binomial logit models are commonly used in the analysis of the situation of respondents on the labour market. Consequently, in most cases researchers consider two states: of being unemployed and employed or economically inactive and active. This paper focuses on the situation of young people aged 18 to 29 on the labour market in Poland. A major part of the people who comprise the studied group are still in education or combine education with work. Therefore, the participants of the research were divided into the following groups: the employed and not learning, those combining education with work, the unemployed, learners/students only, and those economically inactive and not at school. The model allowing an analysis which includes both the most common division into working and nonworking persons as well as the division proposed in this study is a nested logit model. This model has a hierarchical structure and is a special case of a multinomial logit model. In this paper, all models were estimated within the Bayesian approach. The findings show that continuing education by young people may result from their problems with finding a job; moreover, combining work with education is not the preferred form of professional activity. In addition, the study examines the inequalities observed on the Polish labour market.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2021, 22, 3; 175-191
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment for older people in Poland using survival models with censored data
Autorzy:
Grzenda, Wioletta
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/20311945.pdf
Data publikacji:
2023-06-13
Wydawca:
Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Tematy:
employment
older workers
proportional hazard model
time-dependent ROC curve
Opis:
Current demographic changes require greater participation of people aged 50 or older in the labour market. Previous research shows that the chances of returning to employment decrease with the length of the unemployment period. In the case of older people who have not reached the statutory retirement age, these chances also depend on the time they have left to retirement. Our study aims to assess the probability of leaving unemployment for people aged 50-71 based on their characteristics and the length of the unemployment period. We use data from the Labour Force Survey for 2019–2020. The key factors determining employment status are identified using the proportional hazard model. We take these factors into account and use the direct adjusted survival curve to show how the probability of returning to work in Poland changes as people age. Due to the fact that not many people take up employment around their retirement age, an in-depth evaluation of the accuracy of predictions obtained via the models is crucial to assess the results. Hence, in this paper, a time-dependent ROC curve is used. Our results indicate that the key factor that influences the return to work after an unemployment period in the case of older people in Poland is whether they reached the age of 60. Other factors that proved important in this context are the sex and the education level of older people.
Źródło:
Statistics in Transition new series; 2023, 24, 3; 241-256
1234-7655
Pojawia się w:
Statistics in Transition new series
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-2 z 2

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