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    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
    Tytuł:
    Chosen problems of forecasting social phenomena
    Autorzy:
    Donaj, Łukasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2041641.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2012-12-31
    Wydawca:
    Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
    Opis:
    Forecasting is understood as predicting based on specific trustworthy data. Futurology in turn is the science of predicting the future. In the course of forecasting, we also aim to determine the conditions for the evolution of the analysed phenomenon. A forecast prepared for this purpose must take account of the known relationships, types, and intensity of external influences and internal changes expected in the development of the phenomenon under investigation. Forecasting social phenomena can in many ways be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. Thus, making judgements about the future course of social phenomena, which, unlike physical phenomena based on “strong” science, are dependent on a large number of factors with varying degrees of stability is a complex task. The aim of the publication is an analysis of selected issues that affect predicting social phenomena, hence the paper discusses issues such as qualitative character of social science laws; Oedipus effect; syndromatic nature of social phenomena; evolving nature of social reality; substantive rationality and methodological rationality etc.
    Źródło:
    Reality of Politics; 2012, 3; 34-42
    2082-3959
    Pojawia się w:
    Reality of Politics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The European Union’s energy security. A discussion in the context of the Russia-Belarus gas dispute from June 2010
    Autorzy:
    Donaj, Łukasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2139011.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2011-12-31
    Wydawca:
    Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
    Tematy:
    energy security
    EU-Russia relations
    EU-Belarus relations
    gas transit
    Opis:
    The presidential election in Belarus was planned for 19 December 2010. Although from the point of view of international law, it sounds cynical and ridiculous, it seems that the beginning of the “match” for the country governed by Alexander Lukashenko, in which one of the “main players” is Russia, was the gas dispute from June 2010. The publication contains an analysis of this dispute and a discussion on the Russian policy of economic blackmail. The dispute also reminded us of the problem of security of supply of natural gas to the European Union. The article therefore contains an overview of the energy situation in the EU and the process of working out a compromise formula for the resolution on security of supply of gas.
    Źródło:
    Reality of Politics; 2011, 2; 32-45
    2082-3959
    Pojawia się w:
    Reality of Politics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Strategic Planning, Limits to Grand Strategy, and Strategic Review: Methods and Problems of Forecasting Social Phenomena
    Autorzy:
    Donaj, Łukasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2032298.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013-12-31
    Wydawca:
    Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
    Tematy:
    strategic management
    strategic planning
    grand strategy
    tsunami effect
    black swan
    Opis:
    Planning is a process of defining goals and identifying means and methods to achieve them, effective and relevant to future operating conditions, and therefore a diagnosis of a current situation, design and choice of goals, and ways to reach them. The main substance of this publication is to present research methods (methods of prediction) relating to the creation of the future of an organisation, especially a political organisation, or a country. They are: strategic planning and strategic review. In addition, the problems relating directly to the above methods such as limits to grand strategy, the Black Swan effect, the Tsunami effect, and the arguments against normative methods will be presented.
    Źródło:
    Reality of Politics; 2013, 4; 44-58
    2082-3959
    Pojawia się w:
    Reality of Politics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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