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    Tytuł:
    Przełącznikowe łańcuchy w badaniach koniunktury
    Switch Chains in Researches of Economic Situation
    Autorzy:
    Decewicz, Anna
    Dędys, Monika
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500342.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Wahania koniunkturalne
    Business trends, Business cycles, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Business fluctuations
    Opis:
    In this paper we present a method of modelling business indicator based on Markov Switching Model (MSM). We apply MSM to business survey data from 1990-1997. We consider two approaches. In the first case we distinguish States of decreasing or increasing business indicator. In the second case we consider dynamics of changes of the business indicator.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 177-184
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej: edycja 1999
    Composite Leading Indicators of Business Activity for Poland: 1999 Edition
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500326.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Barometry koniunktury
    Business trends, Business cycles, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Business cycle indicators
    Opis:
    The author presents a revised and up-to-date version of composite leading indicators of business activity for Poland, compiled according to the OECD methodology. They are projected against the reference index GCI, used to describe cyclical fluctuations of the aggregate economic activity. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitude of growth cycles observed in the development of the economy in the period of 1975-1998. The second part presents 10 altemative versions of CLI for Poland. Ali are well correlated with the reference cycle, but most of them display very short leads. The barometer as proposed requires further testing and improvement, yet it may already be used for monitoring purposes. It also offers a possibility to generate extrapolative forecasts one year ahead. Updating of the composite indicators has revealed the peak of the aggregate economic activity in August 1998. This may suggest that the expansion which began in 1991 comes to its end, or that the growth ratę would be significantly reduced. Autoregressive forecast of the reference indicator for 1999 also indicates a slowdown in economic growth.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 173-212
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej: edycja 1998
    Composite Leading Indicators of Business Activity for Poland: 1998 Edition
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500135.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Monitoring gospodarczy, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Barometry koniunktury
    Business trends, Business cycles, Economic monitoring, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Business cycle indicators
    Opis:
    The author presents a revised version of composite leading indicators of business activity for Poland, compiled according to the OECD methodology. They are projected against the reference index GCI, used to describe cyclical fluctuations of the aggregate economic activity. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitude of growth cycles observed in the development of the economy in the period of 1975-1997. The second part presents seven altemative versions of CLI for Poland. All are well correlated with the reference cycle, but they display very short leads if any. Nonetheless, the barometer may be useful in monitoring cyclical developments in the economy. It also offers a possibility to generate extrapolative forecasts one year ahead. Updating of the composite indicators has revealed the peak of the aggregate economic activity in April 1997. This may suggest that the expansion, which started in 1991, comes to its end. Autoregressive forecast of the reference indicator for 1998 also indicates a slowdown in economic growth.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 141-172
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The Use of Survey Data in Economic Barometers for Poland
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500512.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Business cycles, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    The aim of this paper is to show the applicability of survey data in macroeconomic appraisals and forecasts pertaining to the general course of business in the national economy of Poland. Section 2 describes the application of certain survey data to a composite leading indicator (CLI), based on quantitative and qualitative data. Section 3 presents alternative variants of an economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the Polish economy, based exclusively (or predominantly) on survey data. Section4 brings some conclusions.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 303-318
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Badanie zmienności cyklicznej czułych wskaźników koniunktury
    Cyclical Variability of Sensitive Indicators of Business Activity
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500622.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne,Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    The paper presents the scope, methods and some results of the analysis of cyclical variability of morę than 100 economic variables pertinent to the cyclical movement of Poland’s economy over the period 1975-1998 (filled with monthly or ąuarterly data). The original database includes 107 individual variables and 17 composite reference indicators, all expressed as uniform volume indices (1992 avg. = 100). The research was accomplished in three phases: (a) decomposition of time series using X11-ARIMA, coupled with seasonal adjustment and MCD m.a. smoothing; (b) analysis of cyclical components isolated by PAT procedure (or altematively, by linear regression); (c) analysis of cross-correlation against the reference cycle and the determination of leads and lags. The number of variables was successively reduced, according to the adopted selection criteria. The finał set includes ca. 60 variables accepted for the construction of composite indicators of business activity. A subsidiary database including 60 variables from business surveys has been established in the last two years to be used in composite qualitative indicators reflecting the business climate.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 93-120
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Syntetyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych IRG SGH (edycja 1999)
    Synthetic Indicators of Economic Activity for Poland Based on the Ried Survey Data (1999)
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500715.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    This is a follow-up study to an earlier analysis by the author, presented in 1998. Eight altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on survey data and resembling the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator, have been developed and tested in this study. All of them were filled with the RIED survey data for industry, construction and trade, supplemented by consumer sentiment indicator provided by RIED or Demoskop and by the Warsaw Stock Exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of generał indicator, covering the period ffom November 1993 till December 1998, have been analyzed, using XII-ARIMA and CCF procedures, in order to find the most adeąuate formula. Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZHG have been conffonted with the reference index of economic activity GCI, developed by the author. As the result, three variants of the generał indicator have been selected for further testing. The finał choice will be madę in the course of the forthcoming analysis.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 263-302
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Syntetyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych GUS (edycja 1999)
    Synthetic Indicators of Economic Activity for Poland Based on the CSO Survey Data (1999)
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500374.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    This is a follow-up study to an earlier analysis by the author. Five altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on survey data, have been developed and tested in this study. Ali of them were filled with the CSO survey data for manufacturing, construction and retail trade, supplemented with consumer sentiment indicator provided by Demoskop and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of general indicator, covering the period from November 1993 till December 1998, have been analyzed, using XI1-ARIMA and CCF procedures, in order to find the most adequate formula. Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZGG have been confronted with the reference index of economic activity GCI, developed by the author. As the result, three variants of the generał indicator have been selected for further testing. The final choice will be made in the course of the forthcoming analysis.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 235-261
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Analiza spektralna wahań aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce
    Spectral Analysis of Business Cycles in Poland
    Autorzy:
    Łuczyński, Wiesław
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500518.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    The general indicator of business activity for Poland (GCI), developed by Z. Matkowski, and its component parts reflecting the production activity of five major sectors of economy (industry, construction, agriculture, transport and trade), filled with monthly data covering the period of 1975-1997, have been subject to spectral analysis in order to identify periodic fluctuations. The analysis included various kinds of data (raw data, seasonal components, trend-cycle, trend deviations, and data transformed by Fourier analysis). Unit root tests were applied to distinguish between trend stationary and difference stationary time series. Apart from the seasonal oscillations, the GCI time series reveal business cycles ranging between 7 and 11.5 years (average 9.5 years). These cycles are well reflected by the dynamics of industry and transport. Construction and agriculture seem to reveal even longer cycles while the retail trade reveals a shorter trade cycle. These findings are largely in line with the results of a parallel examination of the growth cycles seen in the deseasonalized, detrended and MCD-smoothed time series. However, due to a relatively short period covered by the analysis and the change in economic system, these findings may not hołd in the future.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 213-231
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Cykle w rozwoju gospodarki polskiej
    Growth Cycles in Poland
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500354.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Rozwój gospodarczy
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Economic development
    Opis:
    The author presents a revised and up-to-date version of the synthetic index of business activity for Poland, denoted GCI, which has been compiled to reconstruct growth cycles observed in the development of the Polish economy since 1975. The GCI is based on monthly data of the output levels in five major sectors of the economy: industry, construction, agriculture, transport and trade. The same index is used by the author as the reference indicator in his work on composite leading indicators for Poland. First part of the paper examines the chronology and the amplitude of growth cycles seen in the development of Poland’s economy over time. The second part analyses cyclical developments in major sectors of the economy and compares them with the changes in the aggregate economic activity.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 121-140
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Możliwości dostosowania złożonych wskaźników jakościowych szacowanych w Polsce (na podstawie badań ankietowych GUS) do standardów Unii Europejskiej
    Adaptability of Composite Qualitative Indicators Based on CSO Survey Data to EU Harmonized Standards
    Autorzy:
    Barczyk, Ryszard
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500022.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Wskaźniki jakościowe
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Qualitative coefficients
    Opis:
    The paper presents several composite indicators of business activity based on the CSO survey data for manufacturing, construction, and retail trade, developed according to EU concepts and standards. These include confidence indicators for individual sectors and various indices of business climate. The time series cover the period between 1992 or 1993 and 1998. Empirical analysis of time series, confronted with the reference index of industrial output, enabled the author to discriminate upward and downward phases of cyclical movement. Some of the composite indicators cannot be fully suited to EU concepts because of different input data. General condition of national economy can be estimated using the economic climate index based on the assessment of the current and future economic situation of enterprises in manufacturing and trade. The more comprehensive concept of economic sentiment indicator could not be compiled due to the lack of CSO survey data for households.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 333-346
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Złożone wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych
    Composite Indicators of Business Activity for Poland Based on Survey Data
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500606.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Badania ankietowe, Monitoring gospodarczy
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Questionnaire survey, Economic monitoring
    Opis:
    This is a follow-up study to the paper presented at the 24 CIRET Conference in Wellington. The paper contains an updated and revised analysis of the applicability of survey data in monitoring systems based on barometric methods, devised to evaluate the current condition of the economy. The first part shows the use of survey data in macroeconomic barometers for Poland, developed by the author according to OECD standards. The second part compares various concepts of the synthetic indicator of business activity for Poland, filled with survey data. Some of the altemative variants refer to the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) while other are more closely linked to the GDP concept. The choice of the most adeąuate formula requires further observation of the performance of altemative indicators over a longer time.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 64; 319-332
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Złożone wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych
    Composite Indicators of Economic Situation for Polish Economy Based on Results of Researches
    Autorzy:
    Matkowski, Zbigniew
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/499992.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Monitoring gospodarczy, Badania ankietowe
    Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Economic monitoring, Questionnaire survey
    Opis:
    This is follow-up study to the paper presented at the 24th CIRET Conference in Wellington. The paper contains an updated and revised analysis of the applicability of survey data in monitoring systems based on barometric methods, devised to evaluate the current condition of the economy. The first part shows the use of survey data in macroeconomic barometers for Poland, developed by the author according to OECD standards. The second part compares various concepts of the synthetic indicator of business activity for Poland, filled with survey data. Some of the alternative variants refer to the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) while other are more closely linked to the GDP concept. The choice of the most adequate formula requires observation of the performance of alternative indicators over a longer time.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 141-163
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Możliwości diagnozy i prognozy koniunktury w handlu detalicznym
    Possibilities of Diagnosis and Prognosis of Economic Situation of Retail Trade
    Autorzy:
    Ciok, Alicja
    Jerczyńska, Maria
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/499942.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Prognozy gospodarcze, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Economic forecast, Business condition test method, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    Economic sentiment indicator in retailing summarizing the goods and finances turnover, indicates the permanent growth during the last five years. It may be treated mainly as a result of the increased number of the large trade units. The corresponding changes in indicator values (for example sales) do not affect inner consistency of business survey of Polish retail trade. By this consistency we understand concordance of assessments of actual situation ex post with forecasts, both provided by the suwy. The forecast range turned out only 1 month although the suwy questionnaire demands the 3 month forecasts. There are significant agreement of these forecasts with respective quantitative indices published by the Central Statistical Office.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 35-46
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Metody analizy szeregów czasowych w porównaniu wyników testu koniunktury w budownictwie IRG i danych ilościowych GUS-u
    Methods of Time Based Series Analysis in Comparison with Results of Economic Situation Test in Building IRG and Quantitative date from GUS
    Autorzy:
    Jędryka, Anna
    Kieloch, Katarzyna
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500182.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Szeregi czasowe, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Time-series, Business condition test method, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    The purpose of this paper is to compare the results of studies on business situation in the coustruction industry, madę by Research Institute of Economic Development of Warsaw School of Economies, with the processes occurring in reality. In order to make the comparison between these two categories classical statistical methods are applied. For every pair of variables, "qualitative variable” (the result of the sumy dealt by Research Institute) and "quantitative variable” (macroeconomic factors published by GUS), we count mean, variance and correlation coefficient, we also built regression function and statistical indices. We also used statistical test to prove if coefficients are statistically significant. Results suggest that there is a strong correlation between two of the variables at least.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 185-195
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Wskaźniki wyprzedzające dla polskiej gospodarki
    Outstrip Indicators for Polish Economy
    Autorzy:
    Drozdowicz-Bieć, Maria
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/500127.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    1999
    Wydawca:
    Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
    Tematy:
    Koniunktura gospodarcza, Wskaźniki ekonomiczne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
    Business trends, Economic indicators, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
    Opis:
    This paper concerns leading indicators for Polish economy. It includes the Leading Indicator for whole economy and for its inflation. There are two kinds of leading indexes for whole economy: Leading Index, which consists of such series as new orders, building permits, stock prices and corporate profits. These series reliably lead the coincident index and GDP by several months, thus revealing the direction in which the economy is headed in the future; the other index is the relatively new - Long Leading Index. This index has roughly twice the lead of other leading indexes and provides forecasts of the coincident index and its components as well as GDP by as much as year in advance. Because of short term of observation, not proper or unavailable data, there are no possibilities to prepare long leading index for Polish economy up to this time. For Leading Index i used the quality and quantity series. The quantity series are: money supply (M2), credit liabilities of households, Warsaw stock price index and productivity (deflated value of sold production divided by number of employees). The quality data includes: new orders, financial situation of enterprises, inventories and consumer confidence index. The quality data is easily available and is collected using same methodology throughout the survey. All the data; both quality and quantity are seasonally adjusted using ARIMA X-12, deflated with the base year 1995=100 and standariesed. The regression between my Leading Index and the curve of production, GDP, and my Coincident Index with lead from 2 to 7 months is pretty high and amounts 0,89-0,95. The second leading index for Poland is Leading Index for Inflation. I used such components as: average of unit costs in industry, forecasts of prices, consumer confidence index (this dada is from surveys), real changes in money supply (M2), the value of zloty to dollar. This index represents the main tendency for inflation very well (comparing to CPl curve) but unfortunately it has very short lead - only 2-3 months.
    Źródło:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH; 1999, 63; 115-128
    0866-9503
    Pojawia się w:
    Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-15 z 15

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