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    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
    Tytuł:
    A systematic literature review on business cycle approaches: Measurement, nature, duration
    Autorzy:
    Pu, Zhongmin
    Fan, Xuecheng
    Xu, Zeshui
    Skare, Marinko
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19908376.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    business cycle
    business cycle approach
    business cycle model
    business cycle measurement
    literature review
    Opis:
    Research background: The business cycle (BC) approaches have found extensive use in economic analysis and forecasting. Especially in the last 40 years, various modern BC models have been proposed and have experienced rapid development. However, there are no recent studies that provide a systematic review of the publications on this topic. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to comprehensively review publications of BC approaches based on the cause, nature and methods of measurement BC, with the goal of identifying the current research states, research gaps and future trends of BC approaches. Methods: A systematic literature review of BC approaches is conducted by qualitatively introducing the cause and the nature of BCs and quantitatively analyzing the methods of measurement BCs.  We selected 206 articles related to BC approaches from the WoS Core Collection and Google Scholar database, spanning the years 1946 to 2022, for comprehensive statistical and content analysis. The statistical analysis presents the distribution of publication years, the most popular journals and the highly cited publications. The content analysis classifies the selected publications into 6 categories based on methods of measurement BCs, and the theory, technique and applications of each category are analyzed in detail. Findings & value added: The analysis results indicate that BC approaches have progressively evolved in sophistication and have found widespread application in decomposing trends within economic time series, quantifying the nature of business cycles, and elucidating the causes and transmission mechanisms underlying them. This review paper provides current states, research challenges and future directions in effectively employing BC approaches for empirical study.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2023, 14, 3; 935-976
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Economic sentiment indicators and their prediction capabilities in business cycles of EU countries
    Autorzy:
    Tkacova, Andrea
    Gavurova, Beata
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19908930.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    business cycle
    cross correlation
    prediction
    ESI
    GDP
    IIP
    Opis:
    Research background: The post-World Financial Crisis period has showed us that an application of the qualitative data focused on the expectations of the enterprises and consumers in a combination with the quantitative data in the individual economy sectors is a good prerequisite for reliable prediction of the economic cycles. Purpose of the paper: The main goal of the presented study was to test the ESI prediction capabilities and its components in a relation to the economic cycles of the EU countries in the individual time periods. Methods: The time series for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 and the three selected time periods were a subject to undergo the selection of the cyclical component applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter and then, the relationship between the variables was determined employing the Pearson correlation coefficient with the time shifts. The relation of ESI and its components to GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which represent the economic cycle, was analysed. The prediction volume and the cross-correlation values determined the nature of the observed cyclical variables. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis point to the fact that ESI and its components are able to ensure a high-quality prediction of the economic cycle only in the selected EU countries. Regarding the components of the ESI, the Consumer confidence indicator, Construction and Industrial confidence indicators show the best predictive capabilities. The analytical outcomes show that the ESI size and lead period vary over time and after the 2008 crisis, the ESI showed better predictive capabilities in a relation to GDP and IIP than before the crisis. The Covid 19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on the ESI predictive capabilities.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2023, 14, 3; 977-1008
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Firm ownership and size versus innovation activities over the business cycle: near-zero inertia as a sign of the transition from the fifth to the sixth Kondratieff wave
    Autorzy:
    Jakimowicz, Aleksander
    Rzeczkowski, Daniel
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19104960.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    goals of innovative activity
    business cycle
    technological revolution
    Kondratieff waves
    industrial processing enterprises
    Opis:
    Research background: The innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises is examined in a broader time context than typical business cycle frames, which makes it possible to look at the investigated problems from the perspective of Kondratieff waves. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to describe the combined effect of mutual interactions between the ownership and size of Polish industrial processing enterprises on the goals of innovative activity and their degree of importance for the further development of the innovativeness of those firms. These relations are examined in various phases of the business cycle. Additionally, taking secular changes into account made it possible to lend credence to the claim that the global financial crisis is a typical phenomenon for the breakthrough period between two Kondratieff waves. Methods: A characteristic feature of the applied method is the focus on the combined effect of the enterprise type and ownership structure on firms' innovation over three periods: prosperity 2004-2006, crisis 2008-2010 and recovery 2012-2014. As regards statistical techniques, the Pearson's χ2 independence test and correspondence analysis were applied. The results of the research are presented in a graphic form in three- and two-dimensional correspondence maps, which indicate the co-occurrence of (1) ownership sectors and enterprise types taken together, and (2) effects (goals) of the innovative activity of enterprises, together with the degree of their influence (importance) for further innovative activity. Mutual interactions between ownership sectors and enterprise types were visually analysed, indicating significant features of the triangles representing them. Findings & Value added: A significant combined effect of the ownership sectors and enterprise types on firms' innovative activity was found. There was a certain type of dynamic equilibrium between those variables, which changes depending on the business cycle phase. In the global financial crisis of 2008-2010, a surprising phenomenon was found, consisting of the growth of innovative activity in most enterprises as compared to the period of prosperity in 2004-2006. The enterprises achieved the goals assumed, and the degree of their importance proved the significant influence on further innovative activity of those firms. Additionally, it was demonstrated that in the period of recovery (2012-2014) mutual interactions between ownership and size eliminated the relationship between those variables and the goals of innovative activity, and eco-innovations proved to be directly subordinated to traditional types of innovations, mainly product and process innovations. Changes occurring in the last of the examined periods are related to the near-zero inertia of the entire industrial processing section, which allows to interpret the global financial crisis as a typical phenomenon for a breakthrough marking the end of one Kondratieff wave and the beginning of the next. Moreover, 2015 is identified as the year of breakthrough, ending the Fifth and beginning the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, which was related to the transition from the information and telecommunications revolution to the biomedical-hydrogen revolution. The calculations presented in this paper are consistent with those forecasts.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2019, 10, 4; 689-741
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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