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    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
    Tytuł:
    Decision tree based model of business failure prediction for Polish companies
    Autorzy:
    Durica, Marek
    Frnda, Jaroslav
    Svabova, Lucia
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19090954.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    decision trees
    prediction model
    financial ratios
    business failure
    Polish companies
    Opis:
    Research background: The issue of predicting the financial situation of companies is a relatively young field of economic research. Its origin dates back to the 30's of the 20th century, but constant research in this area proves the currentness of this topic even today. The issue of predicting the financial situation of a company is up to date not only for the company itself, but also for all stakeholders. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this study is to create new prediction models by using the method of decision trees, in achieving sufficient prediction power of the generated model with a large database of real data on Polish companies obtained from the Amadeus database. Methods: As a result of the development of artificial intelligence, new methods for predicting financial failure of the company have been introduced into financial prediction analysis. One of the most widely used data mining techniques in this field is the method of decision trees. In the paper, we applied the CART and CHAID approach to create a model of predicting the financial difficulties of Polish companies. Findings & Value added: For the creation of the prediction model, a total of 37 financial and economic indicators of Polish companies were used. The resulting decision trees based prediction models for Polish companies reach a prediction power of more than 98%. The success of the classification for non-prosperous companies is more than 83%. The created decision tree-based prediction models are useful mainly for predicting the financial difficulties of Polish companies, but can also be used for companies in another country.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2019, 10, 3; 453-469
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Detecting earnings manipulation and fraudulent financial reporting in Slovakia
    Autorzy:
    Svabova, Lucia
    Kramarova, Katarina
    Chutka, Jan
    Strakova, Lenka
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19233539.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    Beneish model
    discriminant analysis
    earnings manipulation
    fraudulent financial reporting
    Opis:
    Research background: Misleading financial reporting has a negative impact on all stakeholders since financial records are the primary source of information on financial stability, economic activity, and financial health of any company. The handling of them is primarily the responsibility of managers or owners and reasons for doing so may differ. Their common denominator is the artificial creation of information asymmetry to get different types of benefits. It is, therefore, logical that the issue of detecting opportunistic earnings management comes to the fore. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the study is to create a discriminant model of the detection of earnings manipulators in the conditions of the Slovak economy.  Methods: We used the discriminant analysis to create a model to identify fraudulent companies, based on the real data on companies that were convicted from misleading financial reporting in connection with tax fraud in the years 2009-2018. The model is inspired by the Beneish model, which is one of the most applied fraud detection methods at all. Findings & Value added: In order to achieve more accurate detection results, we extended the original model by taking into account the values of indicators from three consecutive years, i.e. by taking into account the development of the potential tendency of companies to be involved in opportunistic earnings management. Our model correctly identified 86.4% of fraudulent companies and overall reaches 84.1% classification ability. Both models were applied on empirical data on 1,900 Slovak companies from the years 2016-2018, while their overlap was 32.7% for fraudulent companies and 38.4% for non-fraud companies. This is a very useful result, as the application of both models rein-forces the results obtained and the identical classification of the company into fraudulent indicates that the manipulation of earnings occurs with a high probability.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2020, 11, 3; 485-508
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    New paradigms of quantification of economic efficiency in the transport sector
    Autorzy:
    Poliak, Milos
    Svabova, Lucia
    Konecny, Vladimir
    Zhuravleva, Natalia Aleksandrovna
    Culik, Kristian
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/19233644.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
    Tematy:
    transport
    coefficient
    calculation
    cost
    Opis:
    Research background: In determining the prices in road transport, carriers usually use the calculations based on a so-called routes utilisation coefficient, which allows the carrier to also take the possibility of the return rides without load into account. Currently, it is usually used as a constant from the interval from zero to one. Purpose of the article: Considering a different offer of return transport from individual European Union (EU) countries, it can be assumed that the routes utilisation coefficient should have different values because there is a varying level of non-zero probability that the vehicle will return without a load. This study therefore proposes a new approach to determining the value of this coefficient based on transport direction. The study also aims to identify clusters of EU countries, for which the common value of the coefficient should be set. Methods: The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test was used to verify the assumption of the differences among the means of transport offers. Cluster analysis was used to identify the aforementioned groups of countries. This analysis is based on real data on transport offers to Slovakia from 18 different EU countries. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis can also be used in other EU countries because if significant differences in transport offers to Slovakia exist in individual countries, there is a reasonable assumption that this conclusion will also be valid in other countries. The analysis demonstrated that it is more appropriate to use the routes utilisation coefficient with various values, dependent on the transport direction. For the transport companies, implementation of the obtained results into practice is beneficial to increase their competitiveness through the more precise setting of transport prices, but also to the optimisation of the transport price itself with regard to the expected costs.
    Źródło:
    Oeconomia Copernicana; 2021, 12, 1; 193-212
    2083-1277
    Pojawia się w:
    Oeconomia Copernicana
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
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