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    Wyświetlanie 1-14 z 14
    Tytuł:
    Models, manifestation and attribution of climate change
    Autorzy:
    von Storch, H.
    Bray, D.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108472.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    survey
    climate change
    models
    climate scientist
    Opis:
    Results from a series of five surveys among five groups of international climate scientists about their evaluation of elements of climate models and of climate change are presented. The first survey was done in 1996, the latest in 2015/16. Thus, our snapshots of the opinions of climate scientists cover 20 years. The results describe a strong increase in agreement concerning issues of manifestation of climate change, i.e., that the warming is real and not influenced by changing measuring and reporting practices, and concerning attribution of this ongoing climate change to ongoing anthropogenic causes. On the other hand, the evaluation of the climate models has changed little in the past 20 years. There are still significant reservations with the models ability to incorporate clouds and to describe rainfall. Obviously the growing conviction of ongoing man-made climate change is based on a variety of explanations, with modelling not being the predominant line of evidence. We suggest that it may be the repeated assessments by the IPCC, based on paleoclimatic evidence and stringent statistical analysis of the instrumental record which have led to the growing consensus of the warming and its causation. We stress that the presented results concern the opinion of climate scientists with a rather broad background. Our results do not assess if the opinions of the surveyed scientists are “valid” or “right”, but they recognize the character of science being a social process.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2017, 5, 1; 47-52
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Environmental modeling in small catchments in the context of climate change: Reda case study
    Autorzy:
    Walczykiewicz, Tomasz
    Jakusik, Ewa
    Skonieczna, Magdalena
    Woźniak, Łukasz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108615.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    eutrophication
    modeling climate change
    nutrient mitigation
    Opis:
    The BONUS MIRACLE project focuses on understanding the of the impact of climate change on water environments, including it’s affects on hydrological regimes and nutrient concentrations. The overall objective of MIRACLE is to initiate a social learning process in collaboration with stakeholders, that can identify new configurations for governance (conceptual, institutional, and practice based) in order to reduce nutrient enrichment and flood risk in the Baltic Sea region. These configurations should be understood as new solutions to protect water resources, ecosystem services and provide win-win solutions. To achieve this environmental modelling of the Reda catchment, Poland, is used as a pilot study for the project. Mathematical models which specified the detailed processes associated with water cycles, including determining interconnections and quantifying variables characteristic to the assessment of the water resource quantity and quality, were found to be useful. Due to the complexity of some models, launching, entering the appropriate data in the correct formats and calibrating the models proved to be challenging. Future developments in the water management sector should concentrate on specific local catchment areas where the application of integrated water resource management principles and the adaptation to climate change are more easily merged with local spatial planning. However, a larger number and higher frequency of measurements would be required.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2020, 8, 1; 98-106
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    After COP24 Conference in Katowice - the role of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute in connection of hydrological and meteorological measurements and observations with climate change adaptation actions
    Autorzy:
    Barszczewska, Marta
    Skąpski, Ksawery
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108552.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    adaptation
    climate change
    national meteorological
    hydrological survey
    Opis:
    Monitoring of progress in the implementation of the Paris Agreement as well as the Katowice Climate Package is not possible without conducting observations and measurements of the status of individual elements of the atmosphere and hydrosphere using a uniform methodology. These measurements in Poland are carried out by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, which this year is celebrating its 100th anniversary, playing a role of the national hydrological and meteorological survey. Measurement data collected, processed and made available by IMGW-PIB improve the ability to identify and assess potential threats early by using modern tools to detect extreme weather events, and thus allow public authorities and the public to provide up-to-date data on the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere, forecasts and warnings in both everyday and threat situations. The data collected and processed by the Institute are the basis for determining the level of achievement of the objectives of the Paris Agreement, but also for monitoring, forecasting and planning necessary actions in the territory of Poland. These activities, in order to ensure consistency and correctness of interpretation as well as planning activities implementing the Paris Agreement by recipients and users of forecasting systems all over the world, are carried out in cooperation with hydrological and meteorological survey and services within the World Meteorological Organization.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2019, 7, 2; 85-86
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Multi-annual variability of global solar radiation in the agricultural area of Lower Silesia (SW Poland) and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation
    Autorzy:
    Bryś, Krystyna
    Bryś, Tadeusz
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108453.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    global radiation
    multi-annual variability
    climate change
    NAO
    Opis:
    In this paper, the long-term variability of global solar radiation in the agricultural area of Lower Silesia is analyzed based on a 56-year long (1961-2016) measurement series recorded at the Agro- and Hydro-meteorological Wrocław-Swojec Observatory (SW Poland). Yearly and monthly global radiation sums with their extreme and mean values were compared with radiation data from Warsaw (Central Poland) and Potsdam (East Germany). The dynamics of variability between consecutive months, seasons and years was also taken into account. The conducted positive trends show a significant increase in the investigated global radiation sums for Lower Silesia and also for Central Poland and the eastern part of Germany. The trends are strongly related to long-term macro-circulation changes in the North Hemisphere, particularly with the phases and sub-phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relations between the investigated values of global solar radiation and these macro-circulation patterns are very complicated and they very often have an asynchronous character. The first, juvenile stage of the NAO positive phase (the 1970s and 1980s), when annual sums of global solar radiation in Wrocław-Swojec reached only the average level of about 3700 MJ·m-2 and warm half-year about 2800 MJ·m-2 respectively, was cloudy and rainy. This period was distinctly different than the advanced stage of one (the 1990’s and later years) with bigger sunshine duration and smaller annual precipitation, when the adequate radiation sums amount to 3 900-4000 MJ·m-2 and 3 000-3 100 MJ·m-2 respectively.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2019, 7, 2; 13-25
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia
    Autorzy:
    Nikolaev, Mikhail V.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108461.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    humid zone
    climate change
    excessive moisture effects
    farming risks
    Opis:
    This paper is devoted to assessing the farming risks associated with excessive moisture effects in the Humid Zone of Western Russia over the past seven decades. The proposed spatiotemporal monitoring of the areas of this zone vulnerable to over-wetting allows us to evaluate the aggregate impact of climate variability and change on the degree of risk to farming over time. Furthermore, the detailed scale of the G.T. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Index (HTC) (with high values in July) is proposed to identify the recurrence and intensity of such risks as crop lodging under ongoing climate change (by comparing two 35-yr time intervals: 1945-1979 and 1980-2014). The functional analysis of HTC helps to show an increasing contribution of extreme precipitation totals to lodging intensity in comparison with cumulative air temperature contribution in recent decades, even in cases when air temperature sums have a tendency to increase. Moreover, the regression relationships between high precipitation totals and high HTC values are revealed more distinctly in the time interval of 1980-2014 due to a decrease in the residual variance. The comparative analysis of empirical distributions of total seasonal precipitation deviations from trends within time intervals 1946-1980 and 1981-2015 also confirmed the increasing recurrence of marginal positive anomalies in summer and autumn precipitation totals in the time interval of 1981- 2015. In conclusion, the effects of excess moisture on the sustainability of regional crop production are assessed, and adaptation strategies are discussed.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2020, 8, 1; 46-53
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Future impacts of land use and climate change on extreme runoff values in selected catchments of Slovakia
    Autorzy:
    Kohnová, Silvia
    Rončák, Peter
    Hlavčová, Kamila
    Szolgay, Ján
    Rutkowska, Agnieszka
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108556.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2019
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    land use scenarios
    climate change
    WetSpa model
    design discharge
    Opis:
    The aim of this study is to look at the impacts of land use and climate change on extreme runoff regimes in selected catchments of Slovakia, with an emphasis on selected characteristics of hydrological regimes, catchment runoff, and, especially extreme runoff. Changing climate conditions, characterized especially by changes in precipitation, air temperatures, and potential evapotranspiration in future decades, have been predicted by recent outputs of the KNMI and MPI regional climate change models and the A1B emission scenario. The land use changes were characterized by various future land use scenarios. Assuming these scenarios are accurate, the hydrological regime characteristics were simulated by the WetSpa distributed rainfall-runoff model, which was parameterized for the selected river basins with a daily time step until 2100. Changes in the total runoff and its components (the maximum and design discharges), as well as changes in soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration, compared to the current state, confirm the assumption of an increase in the extremes of the hydrological regimes during periods of flood events. The results of the study showed a need for a reevaluation of design discharge values for future designs of water management structures.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2019, 7, 1; 47-54
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Comprehensive evaluation of trend analysis of extreme drought events in the Ceyhan River Basin, Turkey
    Autorzy:
    Esit, Musa
    Yuce, Mehmet Ishak
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2142336.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    drought severity
    drought duration
    trend
    Ceyhan Basin
    Opis:
    The investigation of extreme meteorological drought events is crucial for disaster preparedness and regional water management. In this study, trends in extreme drought events, namely annual maximum drought severity (AMDS) and annual maximum drought duration (AMDD), were examined for the Ceyhan Basin. The analyses of extreme events were conducted using the standard precipitation index (SPI) index for multiple-time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months for 23 meteorological stations located in the Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. The Wallis-Moore and Wald-Wolfowitz methods were employed to determine the homogeneity of the data sets, whereas trend analyses were conducted using Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests. The magnitude of trends was defined by Sen’s slope and linear regression, and change points were detected using the standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand’s range test, and Pettitt’s test. Although increasing trends were detected in most of the stations, only in nine of them, statistically significant results were noted at a significance level of 95%. The results of this paper provide valuable information to water resource management decision-makers in the Ceyhan River Basin for evaluating the effect of droughts and preparing for drought mitigation measures to avoid future drought risks.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2022, 10, 2; 1--22
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Evaluation of Water Storage Changes in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, using GRACE and GLDAS
    Autorzy:
    Öztürk, Emel Zeray
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2058420.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    GRACE
    GLDAS
    groundwater management
    climate change
    Turkey
    water storages changes
    Opis:
    With climatic changes, access to freshwater resources becomes more limited. Correspondingly, water monitoring methods in sensitive or critical areas in terms of groundwater amount are becoming increasingly important. The monitoring of the water levels in these regions, using appropriate methods and data sets, is highly effective in preventing possible future water crises. This paper aims estimated water storage changes with available tools and data in southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, where hydroclimatological studies are scarce due to limited observations. Data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission and the Global Land Data Assimilation System were used for the analysis of water storage changes in the study area. The results demonstrate that water storage shows a downward trend in all subareas, particularly in high-elevation regions. In addition, climatic changes have both short- and long-term impacts on water storage. Climatic variables (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation) showed the highest correlation with water storage at 2-month lags. The monitoring of water storage is crucial for the region, and our results confirm the major role of such monitoring in decision-making processes and water resource management.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2022, 10, 1; 47--59
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset
    Autorzy:
    Danilovich, Irina
    Geyer, Beate
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2014153.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    meteorological observations
    projections
    scenario
    air temperature
    precipitation
    snow
    wind
    Opis:
    This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2021, 9, 1-2; 1-30
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Changes in extreme temperature indices at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, 1951-2020
    Autorzy:
    Khrystiuk, Borys
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Shpyg, Vitalii
    Pishniak, Denys
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2058417.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2022
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    Antarctica
    trend
    climate change
    extreme air temperature
    extreme indices
    RStudio Software
    Opis:
    In the late 20th century, warming on the Antarctic Peninsula was most pronounced compared to other parts of Antarctica. However, air temperature showed a significant variability, which has become especially evident in recent decades. Thus, the investigation of air temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula is important. This study examines the extreme air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, located on Galindez Island, Argentine Islands Archipelago, near the Antarctic Peninsula. For 1951 to 2020, based on the daily air temperature data, the temporal trends of extreme air temperature were analyzed, using 11 extreme temperature indices. Based on linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall trend test, the TXn, TNn, TN90p, and TN90p indices showed an upward trend, whereas theFD0, ID0, TN10p, TX10p, and DTR indices showed a downward trend. Among them, annually, FD0, ID0, and TN10p significantly decreased by –0.427 days, –0.452 days, and -0.465%, respectively, whereas TXn and TNn increased by 0.164℃ and 0.201℃, respectively. The indices TXx and TNn showed no statistically significant trends. The average annual difference between TX and TN (index DTR) showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend at –0.029℃ year-1 . Thus, for the period of 1951-2020, the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station was subjected to warming.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2022, 10, 1; 95--106
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A modeling framework to assess the impact of climate change on river runoff
    Autorzy:
    Kuchar, L.
    Iwański, S.
    Jelonek, L.
    Szalińska, W.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108599.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    spatial weather generator
    regional hydrology
    distributed rainfall-runoff model
    Opis:
    Global climate change is anticipated to have consequences on water resources and the environment both at global and local/regional levels. Efforts towards proper management of future water resources and resolving potential water-related conflicts require the formulation of appropriate techniques to downscale the output of global climate models (GCM) to local conditions for hydrologic prediction. The paper presents an integrated framework for modeling the impact of climate change on river runoff that combines methodology for downscaling climate change scenarios for a basin scale with a hydrological model to estimate the impact of climate change on a river runoff. The modeling framework uses long-term observations of meteorological and hydrological variables together with a climate change scenario to provide a projection of future flows for the specified time horizon. The framework is based on a spatial weather generator and a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Such a configuration enables a reflection of the uncertainty of future conditions by running multiple realizations of future conditions, and also take into account the spatial variability of hydrological properties in the catchment by maintaining the physical details at a given grid size. The performance of the framework was presented for the Kaczawa basin that is one of the main left bank tributaries of the Odra River – the second biggest river in Poland. The results show simulated changes of the future river flow regime caused by climatic changes for two time horizons: 2040 and 2080.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2014, 2, 2; 49-63
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Assessing the impact of climate change on discharge in the Horyn River basin by analyzing precipitation and temperature data
    Autorzy:
    Lobodzinskyi, Oleksandr
    Vasylenko, Yevheniia
    Koshkina, Olha
    Nabyvanets, Yurii
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2201938.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    climate change
    precipitation
    hydrograph
    air temperature
    Thiessen polygons
    Horyn River basin
    water discharge
    Opis:
    It is important to investigate the hydrological consequences of current climate change. Hydrological responses to climate warming and wetter conditions include changes in discharge (frequency, amplitude, and volume). This paper describes current climate change and its impact on hydrological flow within the Horyn River basin. Daily air temperature and precipitation data obtained from the 17 meteorological stations located in and nearby the Horyn River basin, in combination with hydrological data (such as daily water discharges obtained from 9 water gauges), were used for the analysis of climate variability and its hydrological consequences. Analyses of meteorological variables and water discharges are crucial for the assessment of long-term changes in the river regime. Thiessen polygons were used to determine the area of influence of assigned specific meteorological stations, which affect the river’s catchments within the Horyn River basin. As a result of the trend analysis, it was observed that discharge within the Horyn River basin decreased over time. These results were congruent with the trends of precipitation data and air temperature data of the stations determined by the Thiessen polygons and basin boundaries. To understand current changes in the daily flow in the basin, changes in air temperature and precipitation for the period 1991-2020 were compared with the period of the climatic norm (1961-1990). A similar analysis was done for daily water discharges. Increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation in the current period led to a significant decrease in discharges in the Horyn River basin, especially during the spring flood period.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2023, 11, 1; 1--14
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Developing criteria for a stakeholder-centred evaluation of climate services: the case of extreme event attribution for storm surges at the German Baltic Sea
    Autorzy:
    Schwab, M.
    Storch, H. von
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108498.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    usługi klimatyczne
    ekstremalne zdarzenia pogodowe
    zmiana klimatu
    climate service
    extreme weather event
    climate change
    stakeholder-centered evaluation
    Opis:
    Science-based knowledge about climate-related hazards is an inevitable part of the knowledge basis needed for many stakeholders’ decision-making. Despite continuous advances in climate science, much of this knowledge is perceived to be hardly accessible, understandable, or relevant to stakeholders. One relatively new field where these aspects may become evident is extreme weather event attribution. It has received much attention in science in recent years, but its potential usefulness to stakeholders has rarely been addressed in the literature so far. This study has therefore developed criteria for evaluating potential climate services from a stakeholder perspective, using the example of findings from extreme event attribution. This is illustrated in an empirical mixed-method study about decision-makers dealing with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea Coast and (re)insurance sector representatives. The study builds on interviews and workshops with potential users of extreme event attribution. It reveals that there are three main groups of criteria which matter most to the stakeholders in question: 1) trustworthiness, 2) context-sensitivity and decision-relevance, 3) clarity and comprehensibility. Having appropriate evaluation categories, as well as processes to identify stakeholder-specific criteria, will facilitate the inclusion of values, knowledge contexts, and interests. Many stakeholders emphasized that they need a trustworthy knowledge broker who provides decision-oriented information which is intuitively accessible, understandable, and in their mother tongue. Being independent, scientifically competent, and in a continuous dialogue with both scientists and stakeholders, established regional and sector-specific climate services can facilitate the fulfilment of these requirements. A stakeholder-oriented evaluation will thereby help to make climate services more useful to potential user groups – even if a product is not in use yet, as is the case for extreme event attribution products.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2018, 6, 1; 27-35
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
    Autorzy:
    Pińskwar, I.
    Kundzewicz, Z. W.
    Choryński, A.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108474.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2017
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    heavy precipitation
    climate models
    projections
    delta-change method
    Polska
    Opis:
    Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interest and importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRES family. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models under examination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2017, 5, 2; 21-30
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
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