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    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
    Tytuł:
    The spatial distribution of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) over the Kielce Upland in one day and multi-day intervals
    Autorzy:
    Suligowski, R.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108508.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    Probable Maximum Precipitation
    PMP
    Kielce Upland
    Hershfield’s method
    Opis:
    This paper presents an attempt to estimate the value of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over the Kielce Upland for one-day and multi-day intervals. Statistical methods were employed in the calculations. Precipitation data were obtained from 23 gauging stations. A regional frequency factor km (from Hershfield’s formula) was calculated for each station based on a series of maximum annual precipitation totals from 1961 to 2006. The calculated PMP values range from 120.7 mm to 228.4 mm (within the 1-day precipitation group), from 140.7 mm to 266.3 mm (2-day group), from 158.9 mm to 294.1 mm (3-day group), and from 175.2 mm to 294.8 mm (4-day group). These values became reference values used to show the spatial distribution of PMP throughout the Kielce Upland region.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2013, 1, 1; 39-44
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Causes of periodical rainfall distribution and long-term forecast of precipitation for Lankaran, Azerbaijan
    Autorzy:
    Mammadov, A.
    Rajabov, R.
    Casanova, N.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108455.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2018
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    rainfall distribution
    synoptic processes
    atmospheric forces
    harmonic analysis
    baric gradient
    opady
    rozkład opadów
    prognoza długoterminowa
    Azerbejdżan
    Opis:
    Irregular rainfall distribution is receiving considerable attention. The amount of rainfall for one region can account for 500-600 mm, sometimes 1000 mm. For example, in the year 1985, Zagtala in Azerbaijan received 716 mm of rainfall, while in 1988, 2004 and 2008 - 1151, 1306 and 661 mm, respectively, were measured. In Lankaran 2061 mm were measured in 1982 and 470 mm in 1999. Generally, rainfall distribution differs across the Republic of Azerbaijan. In this study, the physical side of such variations was clarified. In relation to that, the movement speed of the atmosphere in regard of the rotation of the Earth was analyzed, showing that the difference in rainfall distribution, according to the time structure, is connected to the direction change of the atmospheric movement. Generally, the reasons for atmospheric movements cannot be identified as the rotation movement of the earth, mainly because both environments show different activities. While the processes happening in the atmosphere often change, influenced by the pressure gradient, the rotation movement of the earth is more stationary. We also evaluated the rainfall forecast method for the region Lankaran. Taking into account its simplicity, the Shuster method was used. Observation data was divided into stationary and casual elements. Selection of periodicals was determined by separation of long term meteorological data into harmonic functions. By accepting the variation, the coefficient casual item was added.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2018, 6, 2; 39-43
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Statistical downscaling of probability density function of daily precipitation on the Polish coast
    Autorzy:
    Wójcik, R.
    Pilarski, M.
    Miętus, M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108542.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2014
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
    Tematy:
    statistical downscaling
    canonical correlation
    precipitation totals
    probability density function
    gamma distribution
    Opis:
    The aim of this study was to recognize the possibility of downscaling probability density function (PDF) of daily precipitation by means of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Sea level pressure (SLP) over Europe and the North Atlantic was used as a predictor. A skilful statistical model could be used to generate projections of future changes of precipitation PDF driven by GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations. Daily precipitation totals from 8 stations located on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea covering the period 1961-2010 were used to estimate the gamma distribution parameters, and only wet days (i.e. ≥0.1mm) were taken in the analysis. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparison of empirical and theoretical (gamma-distributed) quantiles proved that gamma distribution gives a reliable description of daily precipitation totals. The validation of CCA models applied to gamma parameters revealed that the reliable reconstruction of precipitation PDF is possible only for average long-term conditions. In the case of individual months/seasons the agreement between empirical and reconstructed quantiles is poor. This study shows the potential of modelling of precipitation PDF, however efforts should be made to improve model performance by establishing more reliable links between regional forcing and the variability of the gamma parameters.
    Źródło:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications; 2014, 2, 1; 27-36
    2299-3835
    2353-5652
    Pojawia się w:
    Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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