- Tytuł:
- Development of cause-effect dependence model of undesirable events using Bayes network
- Autorzy:
-
Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.
Szpak, D. - Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2068874.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2017
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
- Tematy:
-
bayes network
risk
security - Opis:
- In the paper the method of cause and effect analysis of undesirable events using the Bayesian networks is presented. For the analysis, due to the complexity of the calculations, it is proposed to use Java Bayes program as a free and simple tool to support Bayesian analysis. Bayesian estimation allows to identify the probability of the event occurrence. For this reason its use was proposed to determine the safety probability. Using Bayes' theorem is also possible to modify initial judgement about the situation with the use of a priori probability so that a new situation described by a posteriori probability arises. In this sense, by Bayes' theorem the data can be sequentially processed, including considerations for newer information, and thereby create a more reliable basis for decision making for the system operator. In the paper, the methodology was presented, which can be extended in order to improve the detection and monitoring of undesirable events in infrastructure.
- Źródło:
-
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2017, 8, 1; 149--156
2084-5316 - Pojawia się w:
- Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł