Temat: Uncertainty - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Methods for risk minimizing in the process of decision-making under uncertainty
Autorzy:: Guze, S.
Smolarek, L.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069504.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2011
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: risk
optimization
decision process
uncertainty
Opis:: The sources of the uncertainty in the maritime transport system are described. Furthermore, the two models for human factor reliability are presented. The possibilities of mixed these two methods as the estimators for the probability of correct performance of the navigator are given. The analysis of decision-making process under uncertainty has been done. Finally, the optimization task and his possible solution are shown.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2011, 2, 1; 123--128
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: An integrated framework for safety management and uncertainty management in petroleum operations
Autorzy:: Bjorheim, A. E.
Terje, A.
Sæbøe, I. R.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069701.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: safety management
uncertainty management
petroleum operations
Opis:: In petroleum operations, the safety management and the uncertainty management have traditionally been completely separated functions. The two disciplines are to large extent based on different scientific pillars and it has been difficult to obtain an integrated approach. However, the recent introduction of risk perspectives highlighting the uncertainty component of risk has provided an improved basis for development of such an approach. By seeing risk as the two-dimensional concept covering events and consequences on the one hand side and uncertainties on the other, the content and boundaries of risk assessments are changed. The gap between the two disciplines can to large extent be bridged. The purpose of the present paper is to present and discuss an integrated framework for these disciplines and traditions, based on this risk perspective. An example is included to show the practical implications of the framework.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 1; 1--8
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: A new visualizing tool for communicating cost-effectiveness of safety measures
Autorzy:: Bjorheim, A. E.
Terje, A.
Willy, R.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069703.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2009
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: cost-effectiveness analysis
CEA
safety measures
uncertainty
Opis:: A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is often used as basis for comparisons between competing safety measures. In a CEA indices such as the expected cost per expected number of lives saved are calculated. These indices are presented to the decision-makers, and seen in relation to reference values, they form the basis for assessment of the effectiveness of the safety measures. The appropriateness of using cost-effectiveness indices based on expected values have been thoroughly discussed in the literature. It is argued that uncertainty is not properly taken into account by the CEA, and extended frameworks for CEA are required. This paper represents a contribution to this end, by presenting a diagram that visualizes uncertainty in addition to the expected values as in the traditional CEA. The diagram is meant to be a presentation tool for semi-quantitative cost-effectiveness analyses used as a part of a screening process to identify safety measures to be assessed in a more detailed analysis. In the paper we discuss the use of the diagram in communication between analysts and other stakeholders, in particular the decision-makers. An example is presented to illustrate the applicability of the tool.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2009, 1; 9--14
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Fuzzy logic expert system for supply chain resilience modelling and simulation
Autorzy:: Bukowski, L. A.
Feliks, J
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069242.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2015
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: resilience
supply chain
uncertainty
fuzzy logic
modelling
simulation
Opis:: The aim of this paper is to present the concept of the supply chain resilience assessment in the case of disruptive events occurrence. Firstly, the methods for modelling uncertainty in terms of their application to assess this type of risk will be discussed, and then the concept of a fuzzy logic expert model enabling a quantitative assessment of supply chain resilience will be presented. Finally the structure of the simulation model has been proposed, which consists of the partial resilience models, namely: security, survivability and recovery ones. In the course of the simulation process, it is possible to identify the rules involved in system output as well as changes in resilience level which account for changes in inputs values.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2015, 6, 3; 31--38
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Importance measures in presence of uncertainties
Autorzy:: Baraldi, P.
Zio, E.
Compare, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069576.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2008
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: importance measures
birnbaum importance
uncertainty
sorting algorithm
quicksort
Opis:: This paper presents a work on the study of importance measures in presence of uncertainties originating from the lack of knowledge and information on the system (epistemic uncertainties). A criterion is proposed for ranking the risk contributors in presence of uncertainties described by probability density functions.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 33--39
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: On a few reliability issues in telecommunication networks
Autorzy:: Tanguy, C.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069643.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: network reliability
availability
failure frequency
uncertainty
large systems
Opis:: The paper proposes a short survey on a few issues currently addressed in telecommunication networks. We show on an example that the k-terminal reliability of recursive families of graphs can also be expressed in terms of products of matrices, leading to a simple asymptotic result. The uncertainty on equipment failure rates, which are not always easy to assess, and the possible occurrence of common-cause failures combine to possibly make the overall connection availability and failure frequency different from their expected values assuming independent failures. We finally discuss a source of impairment in long-haul optical networks, and other current issues where improvements would lead to a reduction of costs and to a better quality of service.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 239--246
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: An extended risk based inspection methodology
Autorzy:: Selvik, J. T.
Scarf, P.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069644.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: maintenance planning
risk based inspection
risk
uncertainty factors
Opis:: Risk based inspection (RBI) is a methodology commonly used in planning of inspections for static mechanical equipment, in particular piping networks. The inspections are prioritized based on risk, expressed as expected values, integrating the likelihood and consequences of failures. In this paper we suggest an extension of the RBI methodology which reflects risk and uncertainties beyond expected values. We argue that such an extension is essential for adequately supporting the inspection planning. A pipeline example from the Norwegian oil and gas industry is presented to illustrate and discuss the suggested approach.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 221--230
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Uncertainties on risk analysis : the consequence assessment in an hydrogen refuelling station
Autorzy:: Carpignano, A.
Ganci, F.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069552.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2008
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: uncertainty
risk analysis
hydrogen
consequence analysis
hydrogen refuelling station
Opis:: The paper concerns the problem of uncertainty associated to risk analysis of complex technological systems; this problem is not easy to resolve and manage. This is because such uncertainty has never been simple to quantify and, despite several innovative techniques able to properly manage uncertainties are available, none of these methodologies is integrated on the risk analysis in order to evaluate the error propagation. Also the itself risk analysis is not a precisely defined procedure but rather a complicated process of several parts and, moreover, each part is characterized by its own uncertainty. Several studies highlighted as the phases which mainly contribute to the overall uncertainty of a risk analysis are consequence and vulnerability studies. In order to provide a signifying approach to the problem, the working team has decided to focus their attention on a very important target for population safety: the hydrogen refuelling station for automotive.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 93--100
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Autorzy:: Flage, R.
Aven, T.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069562.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2008
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: quantitative risk analysis
QRA
uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
decision support
Opis:: A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a comprehensive, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main pillars of a risk description following this approach. We also indicate how this approach should relate to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. An example is included to illustrate ideas and findings.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2008, 1; 109--115
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: A semi-quantitative approach for verification of Safety Integrity Level requirements
Autorzy:: Abrahamsen, E. B.
Røed, W.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069648.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: safety integrity level
probability of failure on demand
uncertainty
Opis:: A Safety Integrity Level (SIL) is a measure of performance required for a safety instrumented function. The IEC 61508/61511 standards define four safety integrity levels, SIL1 to SIL4, where SIL4 is the level with the most stringent requirements. For each safety integrity level there are many design requirements, including requirements for the probability of failure on demand (PFD). Verification of the required failure probabilisty is usually based on a quantitative analysis. In this paper we argue that such an approach is better replaced by a semi-quantitative approach. The approach acknowledges that the PFD requirement for a safety function cannot be adequately verified only by reference to an assigned probability number. There is a need for seeing beyond the probability number. The key aspect to include is related to uncertainty. Such an aspect is of ten ignored in verification of a safety integrity level. The offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point, but the discussion is to large extent general.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 1--6
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 11.

Tytuł:: Reliability concept under general uncertainty
Autorzy:: Guo, R.
Cui, Y.
Thiart, C.
Guo, D.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069525.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: probabilistic reliability
uncertain reliability
uncertain measure
uncertainty lifetime
uncertain hazard function
Opis:: The Toyota crisis is tearing off the brand image of quality and reliability and therefore it is logical to question whether the dominating position of probability theory, on which Japanese quality and reliability engineering practices are established, should be examined. In general, reliability analysis is an exercise under uncertain environment. Foundationally speaking, uncertain modeling is a matter of choosing what kind of uncertain measure as its standing point. In this paper, we introduce the uncertainty reliability concept on the platform of the axiomatic uncertain measure theory and compare it to probabilistic reliability concept based on Kolmogorov’s probability measure theory, on which the traditional quality and reliability engineering is established. It is expecting that a foundational work can be established for a more rigorous reliability engineering and risk analysis under general uncertainty environments.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 105--114
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 12.

Tytuł:: Performance analysis of a power transmission system under uncertain load conditions and network configurations
Autorzy:: Zio, E.
Piccinelli, R.
Delfanti, M.
Olivieri, V.
Pozzi, M.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069672.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: vulnerability
electric power transmission network
load flow
power flow betweenness centrality
uncertainty
Opis:: In this paper, the load flow problem in a power transmission network is studied in presence of load and Power generation uncertainties and transmission lines failures. Network performance indicators are computed and the importance of the different components is evaluated by a power flow betwenness centrality measure.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 279--284
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 13.

Tytuł:: Risk assessment related to information uncertainty components
Autorzy:: Rosická, Z.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069587.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2007
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: assets
data
experience
information uncertainty
knowledge management
organization knowledge
tacit knowledge
explicit knowledge
Opis:: Both organization and individuals deal with and manage knowledge. Considering the basic approach, we distinguish two principal clusters: tacit and explicit knowledge. The knowledge management is targeted at making the organization knowledge operation more effective and providing the right people with relevant information at the right time. Knowledge and information uncertainty components have become one of crucial assets of any company or organization. Their crucial potential consists in smart knowledge management handling, proficiency and art to fit the risky market needs better than competitors.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 2; 297--302
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 14.

Tytuł:: Fundamentals of the Dempster-Shafer theory and its applications to system safety and reliability modelling
Autorzy:: Rakowsky, U. K.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069603.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2007
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: Dempster-Shafer theory
evidence
uncertainty
expert assessment
event tree analysis
fault tree analysis
Opis:: The Dempster-Shafter Theory is well-known for its usefulness to express uncertain judgments of experts. This contribution shows how to apply the calculus to safety and reliability modelling, especially to expert judgement; Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis; Event Tree Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, and Reliability Centred Maintenance. Including a tutorial introduction to the Dempster-Shafer Theory, the differences between the Probability and the Dempster-Shafer Theory are discussed widely.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2007, 2; 283--295
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 15.

Tytuł:: Decision theory under general uncertainty
Autorzy:: Cui, Y.
Guo, R.
Dunne, T.
Guo, D.
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069606.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2010
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Tematy:: statistical decision
state space
action space
uncertain measure
loss function
risk
uncertainty decision
Opis:: The exposure of Toyota management’s cover-up of its faulty car component problems raises a fundamental question: did Toyota management make an appropriate decision taking all uncertainties into account? Statistical decision theory is a framework with a probabilistic foundation, which admits random uncertainty about the real world and human thinking. In general, the uncertainty of the real world is diversified and therefore the effort of trying to deal with different forms of uncertainty with one special form of uncertainty, namely random uncertainty, may be oversimplified. In this paper, we introduce an axiomatic uncertain measure theoretical framework and explore the essential mechanism in formulating a general uncertainty decision theory. We expect that a new understanding of uncertainty and development of a corresponding new uncertainty decision-making approach may assist intelligence communities to survive and deal with the extremely tough and diverse aspects of an uncertain reality.
Źródło:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association; 2010, 1, 1; 51--66
2084-5316
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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