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    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
    Tytuł:
    Method for assessment of risks connected with technical object functioning on the basis of Markov model of operation process
    Autorzy:
    Woropay, M.
    Migawa, K.
    Bojar, P.
    Szubartowski, M.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/247063.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2011
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
    Tematy:
    transport system
    operation process
    Markov model
    risk
    Opis:
    In the article, a method for assessment of risks connected with a technical object functioning has been studied, in a selected operating system. An urban system of bus transportation, in a selected urban complex, has been chosen as the research object. Functioning of each technical object operating system, including transportation systems, is dependent on its possibility to perform properly the assigned transport task. One of the methods for assessment of the transportation system ability to accomplish the assigned transport task in a proper way is determination of the transport means operation risk. The presented approach involves determination of indexes defining the risks connected with functioning of one technical object (transport means) in an executive subsystem. Indexes of the risk connected with functioning of a single technical object have been determined on the basis of a mathematical model of the operation process, in the studied transportation system. On the basis of the identification of the authentic transport system and the means of transport operation process carried out in it, crucial operational states were designed as well as the possibilities of transferring between the particular states. Based on that, an event-centered model of the use of the means of transport was built, followed by a mathematical model of that process. A Mathematical model of the operation process has been developed with acceptance of an assumption that the process model is to be represented by a homogeneous Markov model X(t). In this paper, the transport means operation risk is determined as a product of probability (or sum of probabilities) of its being in an undesirable state (states) of the Markov model of transport means operation process and the size of the damage in effect of being in the state (states). The size of the suffered damage is measured by a product of time and unit cost whose quantities are connected with being in the operation process undesirable state or states. Assessment of risk connected with technical objects operation and maintenance can be the point of reference to formulate design requirements concerning durability and reliability of the operated objects (transport means) as well as assumptions concerning design or modernization of the technical means necessary for assurance of the vehicle availability in a given transport system.
    Źródło:
    Journal of KONES; 2011, 18, 4; 563-569
    1231-4005
    2354-0133
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of KONES
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A method for estimating propulsion risk of the ship casualty
    Autorzy:
    Nguyen, N.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/242339.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
    Tematy:
    estimation
    expert judgment
    risk
    ship propulsion system
    analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
    sea transport
    Opis:
    Loss of the propulsion function by a ship is one of the most serious categories of hazardous events in sea transport. In specific external conditions it may lead to a loss of ship and environmental pollution. The consequences of propulsion loss by a ship are events classified by the International Maritime Organization as casualties or incidents. The probabilities of occurrence of the former events in a specific time unit constitute the propulsion risk of a ship. Determination of these probabilities is in practice confronted with difficulties connected with shortage of data. A method for estimating the risk caused by loss of a seagoing ship propulsion function is proposed. The estimation is fully based on the expert judgments. Expert is assumed to be well acquainted with the subject he is expected to formulate his judgment on. Expert should also be capable of formulating his judgment. This is connected with level of his education and the language used in the elicitation process, particularly as regards the parameters the expert is expected to estimate. This may be the language of numerical or linguistic values. Numerical values are better but are more difficult to articulate - also errors in judgments are more likely. To overcome this problem and to obtain a more accurate estimation, this study suggests using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which quantifies the subjective judgments and confirms the consistency of collected data. An example of the propulsion risk estimation of container carriers operating on the North Atlantic line allows to assess effectiveness of the method.
    Źródło:
    Journal of KONES; 2013, 20, 2; 315-321
    1231-4005
    2354-0133
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of KONES
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    An application of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in ship system risk estimation
    Autorzy:
    Nguyen, H.
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/244796.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych
    Tematy:
    intuitionistic fuzzy sets
    risk estimation
    expert judgment
    ship propulsion system
    analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
    sea transport
    Opis:
    In this paper, we extend the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) into the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP) with application in ship system risk estimation. In the safety engineering, risk estimation is in practice confronted with difficulties connected with shortage of data. In such cases, we have to rely on subjective estimations made by persons with practical knowledge in the field of interest, i.e. experts. However, in some realistic situations, the decision makers might be reluctant or unable to assign the crisp evaluation values to the comparison judgments due to his/her limited knowledge. In other words, there is a certain degree of hesitancy in human cognition and his judgment. Taking advantages of IFSs in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty into account, the IFAHP can be used to handle with the subjective preferences of experts, who may have insufficient knowledge of the problem domain or uncertainty in assigning the evaluation values to the objects considered. This paper also develops a new knowledge-based ranking method to derive the priority vector of the hierarchy. An illustrative example of the propulsion risk estimation of container carriers operating on the North Atlantic line is given to show the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.
    Źródło:
    Journal of KONES; 2016, 23, 3; 365-372
    1231-4005
    2354-0133
    Pojawia się w:
    Journal of KONES
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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