Temat: correction model - Katalog OPAC zbiorów

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Analysis of the impact of selected economic variables on sorghum prices in Nigeria
Autorzy:: Ajibade, Toyin Benedict
Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Ojoko, Emmanuel Ada
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/952113.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2017
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:: autocorrelation
cochrane-orcutt procedure
cereal
cointegration
error correction model
time series
Opis:: Nigeria is the world’s leading producer of sorghum intended for use as food grain. Likewise, there has been growing industrial demand for sorghum in the livestock breeding and brewery sectors. As sorghum prices have been on the increase, it becomes pertinent to identify the determinants of this development in order to nip the imminent food crisis in the bud. This study relied on time series data spanning from 1970 to 2015 retrieved from FAOSTAT and World Bank databases. Analytical methods employed include the unit root test, cointegration test and error correction mechanism. The diagnostic tests indicated the presence of autocorrelation which was subsequently adjusted with the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure. Subsequent tests indicated that variables fit well to the model. As shown by the ADF unit root test, the modeled variables were non-stationary but became stationary after first differencing. At a significance level of 5%, the sorghum price was determined by gross domestic product (GDP), annual money supply, official exchange rate and crude oil price, both in the long and short run, whereas the lagged price of sorghum also had an effect on prices in the short run. The study recommends that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, annual money supply and official exchange rate be taken cognizance of when planning the agricultural development in Nigeria.
Źródło:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2017, 46, 4; 723-729
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: A price transmission analysis of pasteurised liquid milk in South Africa: granger causility approach
Autorzy:: Ramoshaba, Tshegofatso
Belete, Abanet
Hlongwane, Johanes Jan
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1902627.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2019-12-28
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:: price transmission
Granger causality
pasteurized liquid milk
Vector Error Correction model
Opis:: Price transmission studies have become increasingly important in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decades because of its nature of providing clear and insightful information into these markets. In this study, the price transmission mechanism is described with an agricultural product within the dairy industry, namely pasteurized liquid milk. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the nature of the price transmission mechanism for pasteurized liquid milk in South Africa. The study used secondary time series data that covered a sample size of 17 years (2000–2016) for pasteurized liquid milk. The Granger causality test and the Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. The Granger causality tests suggest that a bidirectional causal relationship exists between processor and farmgate prices, and also between retail and processor prices. On the other hand, retail prices were found to have a unidirectional causality effect on farmgate prices. The VECM results showed asymmetric price transmission, implying that retailers and processors react quicker to a price increase than to a price decrease. A price monitoring policy is suggested to be put in place in order to protect the consumers from unfair prices passed on by the retailers.
Źródło:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2019, 54, 4; 345-353
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: The response of Zimbabwe tobacco exports to real exchange rates volatility
THE RESPONSE OF ZIMBABWE TOBACCO EXPORTS TO REAL EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY
Autorzy:: Mutodi, Knowledge
Chuchu, Tinashe
Maziriri, Eugine Tafadzwa
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1892227.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2020-07-08
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:: Real exchange rate (RER)
Real exchange rate volatility (RERV)
Vector error correction model (VECM)
Opis:: The focus of this study was on investigating the response of tobacco exports to real exchange rates and real exchange rate volatility and other factors in Zimbabwe using secondary data spanning from 1980 to 2019. Bilateral nominal exchange rates and time-variant weights of Zimbabwe’s 10 major trading partners were calculated and used to compute the real exchange rate index. The time-dependent weighting system was used to better represent the evolution of trade patterns in the index. The arithmetic method was employed for computing the index. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models were used to generate the real exchange rate volatility index. The export response function was adopted as the tobacco exports response model. The variables in the tobacco exports response model were the realworld Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real exchange rate, terms of trade, real exchange rate volatility and dollarization. A vector error correction model (VECM) was used to estimate the response of tobacco exports to real exchange rate, real exchange rate volatility and other factors. The VECM results indicated that real world GDP was insignificant in both the short and long run. In the long run, the real exchange rate appreciation had a negative impact on tobacco exports. Conversely, in the short run, the depreciation of real exchange rate had a positive impact on tobacco exports. Hence, the government has to adopt other mechanisms that reduce uncertain movements of exchange rates.
Źródło:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2020, 56, 2; 201-219
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Impact of international trade on employment in orange industry of South Africa
Autorzy:: Molepo, Nkoti Solly
Belete, Abenet
Hlongwane, Jan
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1886408.pdf
Data publikacji:: 2021-07-04
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Tematy:: South African orange industry
employment, wages
international trade
Johansen cointegration
vector error
correction model
Opis:: The purpose of the study is to analyse the long-run and short-run dynamic relations amongst total employment (lnEMPGt), export output (EXPOt) and import output (IMPOt) from 1990 to 2018, by applying a time-series analysis. The study adopts the secondary data for total employment from the Citrus Growers Association of South Africa, while both export and import output were sourced from the Global Trade Atlas. The multivariate cointegration approach is adopted in the study to identify any causal relationships amongst the concerned variables. The chosen optimum lag selection criterion was the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) due to its association dependence on the log-likelihood ratio. The third lag was selected for the entire analysis. The results from the cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) suggest a positive long-run effect between total employment and export output, while import output is negatively associated with total employment. The adjustment term of lnEMPGt, EXPOt and IMPOt suggests that the previous year’s errors are corrected for the current year at a convergence speed of 0.002, 1.11 and 25.37 percentage points, respectively. The results of the Granger causality test show that there are bidirectional causality effects between export output and total employment in the long run, while there are no causality effects between import output and total employment. The overall conclusion is that export outputs positively impact employment, while import outputs impact it negatively in the South African orange industry.
Źródło:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development; 2021, 60, 2; 193-201
1899-5241
Pojawia się w:: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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