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Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
Tytuł:
Macroeconomic stability as the condition for Bulgaria to join the euro area
Autorzy:
Moździerz, Anna
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446419.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
macroeconomic equilibrium
macroeconomic stability
monetary union
convergence criteria
Opis:
Research background: The subject of research is the macroeconomic situation of Bulgaria in the context of the country's preparations for joining the euro area. In 2018, the Bulgarian government approved a plan of preparations covering the period until the end of June 2019, which assumes that the country will join the ERM II mechanism in July 2019, and the euro area on 1 January 2022. Bulgaria meets four nominal convergence criteria regarding inflation, long-term interest rate, budget deficit and public debt. The national currency is pegged to the euro under the currency board arrangement. Despite this, the implementation of this optimistic scenario may be difficult because since the 2007 crisis, the European institutions pay more attention to macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of convergence. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the factors destabilising macroeconomic equilibrium in Bulgaria, which are a potential obstacle to the adoption of the euro by Bulgaria on schedule. Methods: The research was based on the changes in selected macroeconomic indicators, as well as on the method used by the European Commission to detect macroeconomic imbalances. The observation and analysis covered the 2007?2018 period.  Findings & Value added: The research results indicate that the low level of socio-economic convergence of Bulgaria and macroeconomic imbalances may delay its membership in the monetary union. Therefore, while respecting the country's aspirations to join the euro area, one cannot ignore the risk of another destabilisation of the euro area. 
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2019, 14, 2; 295-315
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION - THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON THE BOND MARKET
Autorzy:
Vukovic, Darko B.
Hanic, Edin
Hanic, Hasan
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/517244.pdf
Data publikacji:
2017
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
financial integration
crisis
bonds market
ALB model
European Monetary Union
Opis:
Research background: In our paper we have analyzed the influence of the crisis on the financial integration in the European Monetary Union. We have analyzed EMU capital market to show the impact of the crisis, with the focus on the bonds market. The determinants of the research are yields and standard deviations on medium-term and long-term triple-A bond markets, as well as CDS medium-term premiums. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to show the volatility of researched deter-minants in periods of crisis in EMU zones. Methods: As a model we used a modified theoretical CAL portfolio model. In the last fifteen years Europe has been faced with two major crises: the world economic crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Findings & Value added: We believe that the sovereign crisis hit EMU more, leaving the deeper implications on the financial integration. Our analysis has showed that the crisis had a major impact on the financial integration. Yields and standard deviations increased multiply in periods of crisis and left the impact of volatility on the capital market. However, the degree of convergence of euro area bond markets largely stabilized in last two years.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2017, 12, 2; 195-210
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Real interest rate differentials between Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area
Autorzy:
Janus, Jakub
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446393.pdf
Data publikacji:
2019
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Tematy:
real interest rates
Central and Eastern Europe
Economic and Monetary Union
financial integration
Opis:
Research background: The question of changes in real interest rates differentials between the Euro Area and the CEE countries in the last years is raised because of two main reasons. The first rationale is related to the growing importance of external financial factors for the CEE economies and their monetary autonomy. The second reason is associated with the unprecedented shift in monetary conditions in the EMU, brought about by negative interest rates policy and unconventional policies, and the way it impacts the real rates in the CEE economies. Purpose of the article: This paper aims at exploring the relationship between real interest rates in the Euro Area and ten countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, North Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine. The analysis covers the years of 1999-2018, including periods before and after the financial and economic crisis. Methods: We employ Markov-switching regression to construct the ex-ante real interest rates series in each country, using monthly data on short-term interest rates and CPI inflation rates. A battery of unit root and stationarity test, both standard and panel ones, is applied to examine the real interest rate parity, also allowing for a structural break in the rate differentials. Findings & Value added: We provide detailed evidence on the real interest rates differentials for all of the CEE countries vis-?-vis the Euro Area. We find that, while panel stationarity tests point to the stability of real rate differentials, there are significant dissimilarities across the countries, and the results of the univariate tests are often mixed. At least half of the economies, however, reveal similar patterns of stationarity in real rates relationships. At the same time, we find differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, countries highly integrated into the EMU economy, to be unstable over time.
Źródło:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy; 2019, 14, 4; 677-693
1689-765X
2353-3293
Pojawia się w:
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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