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    Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4
    Tytuł:
    Application of Value at Risk Method to Assess Timber Selling Price Risk
    Autorzy:
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Michalski, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27323547.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    value at risk method
    risk management
    economy
    forestry
    timber selling price risk
    Opis:
    As organisations and economic markets continually evolve, it becomes essential to improve risk management skills on an ongoing basis. In this respect, it is particularly important to make practical use of all the tools available to identify and quantify risks. As with most entities, the most important tool for forest management is the timber selling price risk (TSPR). Economic practice shows that global markets experience very high volatility in this respect. The awareness of some popular techniques to understand the nature of individual risks by properly identifying their impact on the functioning of the organisation is currently increasing in importance. One of these techniques is the Value at Risk (VaR) method, which was used in this study to measure TSPR in 38 timber-selling economic entities. The aim of this article is to examine the concept of TSPR estimation using the VaR method adopted in the methodology by implementing the main VaR assumptions in the Polish forest economy in order to improve the methods of quantification of market risk in forestry, taking into account the impact of the sales volume and trade pattern of wood species on TSPR. The article demonstrates that the application of the VaR method can be an auxiliary tool in the TSPR management process. It is noted that this method can be a basic tool to ascertain the degree of exposure to risk and that the structure of commercial classes of timber is important. Using VaR, the relationship between the level of generated revenue and TSPR as well as between the assortment structure and TSPR was identified and discussed. It is also shown that the class of timber had an impact on TSPR.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2023, 66, 212; Art. no. 177423
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    A comparison of prediction efficiency for timber prices in Poland in times of economic crisis with the application of the linear approximation method and brown’s exponential smoothing model
    Autorzy:
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2067432.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    forest economics
    market
    price
    prediction
    raw wood
    Opis:
    An analysis was made of two prediction methods: the Linear Approximation Method (LAM) and Brown’s Exponential Smoothing Model (BESM). These two methods were investigated and compared in terms of their efficiency in timber price prediction. Models and price predictions were prepared based on three time series (5-, 7- and 9-year) for three years: 2015, 2016 and 2017. The analyses were conducted using data on mean annual timber prices from the period 2006-2017. This meant that the time series included the years of the 2007-2008 economic crisis. Prediction efficiency was evaluated by comparing the results obtained with actual timber prices in the years 2015-2017. It was found that the predictions generated by LAM were better than those produced by BESM. The smallest relative and absolute errors of prediction were obtained applying the linear function: Υt^ = 5.277t + 161.70. This function was constructed based on a 5-year time series. Absolute error amounted to 1.59 PLN (€0.35). Relative error was below 1%. The results of this work suggest that further studies are desirable to investigate the applicability of trend analysis to the prediction of timber prices with the inclusion of analyses of nonlinear trends. The present results of timber price modelling may provide a basis to search for a homogeneous model of timber price prediction adapted to specific conditions of timber sales.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2021, 64, 208; 135--147
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    The application of trend estimation model in predicting the average selling price of timber
    Autorzy:
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Górna, Aleksandra
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2010868.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2020
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    wood economics
    forest economics
    price forecast
    prediction methods
    trend estimation model
    Opis:
    The article analyzes the possibility of adopting trend estimation model to predict the average selling price of timber (CGUS). The study used information about the average selling prices of timber in chosen periods (2006-2017). The data concerning the actual CGUS was used to create a trend estimation model. The models and CGUS predictions were conducted based on three different time series encompassing 5-year periods. The predicted (CGUS) trend estimation in particular years was requested based on extrapolation, which exceeded the accepted set of information used in the study to create a trend estimation model. On the basis of the conducted study it was ascertained that the method of modeling linear trend estimation should be adopted in the price prediction process. The error assessment with which the linear function formulas are burdened, it was noticed that the value of the coefficient of residual variation was between 4.40% and 7.82%. It was also noticed that the linear modeling of CGUS trend estimation, despite unfavorable values of coefficient of determination and convergence, to some extent, can be viewed as an assistance tool in the decisionmaking process in the scope of predicting the height of the analyzed price. This view was supported by the achieved predictions which were verified with the actual prices of timber. The price difference between the actual and the predicted one was between -1.59 PLN to 2.27 PLN, and in relative terms the predictive error was between 0.83 to 1.15%. In our opinion the presented research process can constitute a reference point as a comparative element to verify the results for other, new price prediction models. The process of modeling timber prices should be extended by other predicators which are connected with forest market chain.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2020, 63, 206; 147-159
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Classification of Financial Risks in Polish Modern Forestry
    Autorzy:
    Michalski, Krzysztof
    Wieruszewski, Marek
    Starosta-Grala, Monika
    Adamowicz, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/27323545.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2023
    Wydawca:
    Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Drewna
    Tematy:
    risk
    modern forestry
    risk classification
    risk management
    forest management
    Opis:
    Modern forest management requires a well-founded knowledge and understanding of all the risks involved in forest management. It requires a wealth of information not only on natural hazards, but also related to the financial aspect of running a business. The most important activity in the risk management phase is to identify all the known risk areas, and on this basis, to determine the appropriate classification of risks accompanying the activities of the entity in question, taking into account the various categories of risk division. In forest management, the global risk of activities should be considered in terms of two main risks: operational risk (including natural and anthropogenic factors), and financial risk, which, in simple terms, is the consequence of decisions and economic processes in an entity's area of activity. Considering the impact of the production factors that affect the results of the activities carried out, it should be emphasized that forest management has a specific distribution of standard production factors. The forest stand plays the role of both a production resource and an object of production, and in the final analysis, represents a production effect. Any consideration of financial risk management in forest management should be carried out based on long-term analytical data series. Another factor for forests under state management is the various functions that forest management performs. Taking into account the ownership criterion cited earlier, it needs to be emphasized that the weighting of individual financial risks may vary depending on the ownership structure of forests in a given country and taking into account the ownership share of forests in the timber sales market. In conclusion, it was pointed out that, unlike other industries, financial risk management in forest holdings can be disrupted by the function of forests, as well as the strong influence in the long term of natural phenomena that have a significant impact on determining the types and ordering the degree of significance of individual risks in the process of identifying them.
    Źródło:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty; 2023, 66, 212; Art. no. 17742
    1644-3985
    Pojawia się w:
    Drewno. Prace Naukowe. Doniesienia. Komunikaty
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-4 z 4

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