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    Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3
    Tytuł:
    Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits
    Autorzy:
    Bańbuła, Piotr
    Pietrzak, Marcin
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2075289.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2021
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    early warning models
    financial stability
    Opis:
    We built a logistic regression Early Warning Models (EWM) for banking crises in a panel of 47 countries based on data from 1970–2014 using candidate variables that cover macro and financial market indicators. We find that VIX, a proxy of global risk-premium, has a strong signalling properties and that low VIX (low price of risk) increases likelihood of crisis. It does not only mean that stability leads to instability, but that this tends to be a global rather than a domestic phenomenon. We also find that particularly high contribution of financial sector to GDP growth often precedes crises, suggesting that such instances are primarily driven by excessive risk taking by financial sector and may not necessarily be sustainable. Other variables that feature prominently include credit and residential prices. Models using multiple variable clearly outperform single variable models, with probability of correct signal extraction exceeding 0.9. Our setting includes country-specific information without using country-specific effects in a regression, which allows for direct application of EWM we obtain to any country, including these that have not experienced a banking crisis
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2021, 4; 381-403
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies
    Autorzy:
    Kliber, Agata
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483351.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2013
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    CDS
    bond spread
    Markov-switching models
    GARCH models
    volatility
    financial crisis
    Opis:
    In the article the author analyses the impact of the Financial Crisis, especially the Greek fiscal one, on the sCDS prices in Europe. The aim of the article is to assess the ability of the sCDS premia to price the risk of countries before and during the Greek crisis. The author analyses sCDS premia of maturity 10 years together with the so called bond-spreads, i.e. the spreads between the countries’ bond indexes and the risk free rate of the region (in our case it was the yield of German bonds of corresponding maturity - 10 years). The idea was to check whether there occurred any discrepancies in the risk valuation via the two measures, as a consequence of the Greek crisis. The data is taken daily and covers the period of 2008-2012. Based upon the results obtained in the research we conclude that the Greek crisis indeed influenced the relationships between the two measures of risk, however the degree of the influence was different in different countries. The relationships between the two measures of risk were totally broken only in the case of Greece, while in the other countries the relationships either were not distorted or had been broken already at the beginning of the financial crisis (2008/2009). The Greek problems were indeed reflected in volatilities of all analysed instruments; however triggering the credit event affected only Greek bonds dynamics.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2013, 5, 2; 125-161
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Hybrid MSV-MGARCH Models - General Remarks and the GMSF-SBEKK Specification
    Autorzy:
    Osiewalski, Jacek
    Osiewalski, Krzysztof
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076468.pdf
    Data publikacji:
    2016
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
    Tematy:
    Bayesian econometrics
    multivariate volatility models
    MGARCH processes
    MSV processes
    financial markets
    commodity markets
    Opis:
    The first so-called hybrid MSV-MGARCH models were characterized by the conditional covariance matrix that was a product of a univariate latent process and a matrix with a simple MGARCH structure (Engle’s DCC or scalar BEKK). The aim was to parsimoniously describe volatility of a large group of assets. The proposed hybrid models, similarly as pure MSV specifications (and other models based on latent processes), required the Bayesian approach equipped with efficient MCMC simulation tools. The numerical effort has payed – the hybrid models seem particularly useful due to their good fit and ability to jointly cope with large portfolios. In particular, the simplest hybrid, now called the MSF-SBEKK model, has been successfully used in many applications. However, one latent process may be insufficient in the case of a highly heterogeneous portfolio. Thus, in this study we discuss a general hybrid MSV-MGARCH model structure, showing its basic characteristics that explain greater flexibility of such hybrid structure with respect to the corresponding MGARCH class. From the empirical perspective, we advocate the GMSF-SBEKK specification, which uses as many latent processes as there are relatively homogeneous groups of assets. We present full Bayesian inference for such models, with the use of an efficient MCMC simulation strategy. The approach is used to jointly model volatility on very different markets. Joint modelling is formally compared to individual modelling of volatility on each market.
    Źródło:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics; 2016, 4; 241-271
    2080-0886
    2080-119X
    Pojawia się w:
    Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-3 z 3

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