- Tytuł:
- Future Life-Tables Based on the Lee-Carter Methodology and their Application to Calculating the Pension Annuities
- Autorzy:
- Rossa, Agnieszka
- Powiązania:
- https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/657675.pdf
- Data publikacji:
- 2011
- Wydawca:
- Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
- Tematy:
-
mortality forecasting
Lee-Carter model
future life-tables
pension annuity - Opis:
- In the paper a new recursive approach to the mortality forecasting is proposed based on the well-known Lee-Carter stochastic model. The standard Lee- -Carter method and its modified version are presented and compared using mortality data for Poland in the time period 1990-2007. The results obtained indicate that the recursive approach gives more accurate forecasts in terms of the mean squared error. Stochastic forecasts of age-specific death rates are also used to predict death prob- abilities and life expectancy being the main parameters of the life-tables. As an example, future life-tables for 2020 are calculated. Applications of Lee-Carter methodology in pension annuity calculations are presented.
- Źródło:
-
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica; 2011, 250
0208-6018
2353-7663 - Pojawia się w:
- Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
- Dostawca treści:
- Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł